NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 92 - Fanatics Anonymous Off Season

White Lightning wrote:You have to be careful with players at new clubs because no matter how much work you do in pre season the combinations in match situations take a while to gel. Look at big Tino in his first year at the Titans last year we all thought he was going to excel but early it didn't pan out.

Last year there were a few cheap halves who didn't pan out too well (or at least the ones I picked).

[imo Averillo is the better gk & has more yardage on the kicks from general play.  quote="White Lightning"]

I can’t recall seeing Avo kick, but I reckon Burton’s got the biggest boot  in the comp.  Avo must have some boot on him!

Jumping Marlin wrote:[imo Averillo is the better gk & has more yardage on the kicks from general play.  quote="White Lightning"]

I can’t recall seeing Avo kick, but I reckon Burton’s got the biggest boot  in the comp.  Avo must have some boot on him!

Yeah Burton is a loooooong kicker.

Having said that doesn't mean he's a better general kicker over Avo. Could still end up 2nd on the KM for the Dogs.

I think there's enough uncertainty there to wait and see.

Holy Moly wrote:

I'm not sure my mate knows where he is putting Burton. What you said makes a lot of sense. Especially when Burton will be playing for a team that's been hanging at the bottom.

Any thoughts on Savage? Is he a decent shot at getting the fullback role?

I think CNK will be f/b. Savage could jag a wing spot with Simonsson gone to the Eels.

White Lightning wrote:

I think CNK will be f/b. Savage could jag a wing spot with Simonsson gone to the Eels.

I expect wings to be Cotric and Rapana.

Jumping Marlin wrote:[imo Averillo is the better gk & has more yardage on the kicks from general play.  quote="White Lightning"]

I can’t recall seeing Avo kick, but I reckon Burton’s got the biggest boot  in the comp.  Avo must have some boot on him!

Averillo played 3 full games (if you forget about the stupid sin binning) with Lachlan Lewis last year. In each of those matches, Lewis managed to double Avo's KM's and I would expect a similar pattern to be followed this year with Burton. They should be sharing the kicking with Burton getting about a 2/3 share.

Additionally, our pack this year looks like it can actually (touch wood*) make some ground so there might be less KM required from the pair of them. The attack is still likely to be ordinary so I think I will be passing on Burton.






*  not that kind of wood  

What I don't understand with the Bulldogs halves is why have they paired 2 attacking players & who is going to be the controlling half who leads the team around which would mean 1 of them will have to change his playing style,

White Lightning wrote:

I think CNK will be f/b. Savage could jag a wing spot with Simonsson gone to the Eels.

If Savage plays it will be at wfb and CNK will move into the ctrs

White Lightning wrote:What I don't understand with the Bulldogs halves is why have they paired 2 attacking players & who is going to be the controlling half who leads the team around which would mean 1 of them will have to change his playing style,

Thought burton had plenty of experience as a 7..?

Regardless. I know what id prefer. Organisation can be learnt. Attacking ability is instinct. The best sides have two halves capable of good attacking footy.

Dogs issue is probably the 9 unless theyve signed someone im not aware of?

my tv broke wrote:

Thought burton had plenty of experience as a 7..?

Regardless. I know what id prefer. Organisation can be learnt. Attacking ability is instinct. The best sides have two halves capable of good attacking footy.

Dogs issue is probably the 9 unless theyve signed someone im not aware of?

Nah Mahoney for 2023

they'll have to do with either JMK or JCook

Saw this about Djokovic and thought it was funny given it was NRL related.

my tv broke wrote:

Regardless. I know what id prefer. Organisation can be learnt. Attacking ability is instinct. The best sides have two halves capable of good attacking footy.

For what its worth too, Cleary attributed his improvement in game management to Barrett's coaching at the Panthers. From what I've seen of Averillo I'd definitely be looking at Burton as the dominant half - plus Dogs were pushing hard to get him early for 2021 so there seems to be the indication that they'll build the team around him

Having said that, time to try out some Burton + Cleary drafts

Lchy wrote:

For what its worth too, Cleary attributed his improvement in game management to Barrett's coaching at the Panthers. From what I've seen of Averillo I'd definitely be looking at Burton as the dominant half - plus Dogs were pushing hard to get him early for 2021 so there seems to be the indication that they'll build the team around him

Having said that, time to try out some Burton + Cleary drafts

The trouble with a Burton/Clearly strategy... or even just a Cleary strategy is that there are so few base price players or genuine cash cows. It means you are really scraping the bottom of the barrel for your 13-17, let alone your 18-21. Player prices seem to reflect reality a little more this year. Cleary is no chance of matching his improvement from last year. That is what killed non-owners If he regresses... even just a little bit... Cleary owners will find in tough this year

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

The trouble with a Burton/Clearly strategy... or even just a Cleary strategy is that there are so few base price players or genuine cash cows. It means you are really scraping the bottom of the barrel for your 13-17, let alone your 18-21. Player prices seem to reflect reality a little more this year. Cleary is no chance of matching his improvement from last year. That is what killed non-owners If he regresses... even just a little bit... Cleary owners will find in tough this year

One thing to consider: if you don’t start with Cleary, when and how do you get him?

Firstly, how do you get the cash?
Based on start prices, for example: You’d have to sell a Mitch Moses and an Adam Reynolds plus spend $26k to get Cleary + a min $ cheapie.

Secondly, do you wait post origin and then only have him for part of the season?

(From what I’ve read, there seems to be at least some doubt whether he’ll be fit to start the season, which would make things interesting).

I will be just fine with purchasing Cleary when he represents better value. There is a strong chance that he will be much cheaper at some stage in the season. If you buy him at his current price you are paying overs and there are few options for paying under to fill out your 21 with other players. Just my perspective... I don't think the "collective wisdom" on this is necessarily right. Like I said. The biggest problem with not owning Clearly last year was the amount his price increased. He was essentially a top-priced cash cow. This year he is very unlikely to do that.

I remember when Cleary was too expensive to fit into teams last year and people were just going to wait and get him cheaper.

-Seven consecutive price rises to tack an extra $165k on his price
-His price dipped about $30k over the next two games, the lowest it would be for the rest of the season.
-Maxed out at $1.21M, $237k higher than his starting price, and $166k higher than his 2022 price

Cleary is only $77k more expensive than his starting price last year.
Im just too scared to run without the bloke who never dipped below $1.1M in 2021

Jumping Marlin wrote:

One thing to consider: if you don’t start with Cleary, when and how do you get him?

Firstly, how do you get the cash?
Based on start prices, for example:  You’d have to sell a Mitch Moses and an Adam Reynolds plus spend $26k to get Cleary + a min $ cheapie.  

Secondly, do you wait post origin and then only have him for part of the season?

(From what I’ve read, there seems to be at least some doubt whether he’ll be fit to start the season, which would make things interesting).

It took 3 trades for me to get Cleary in last season. If you value each trade at $150k, that is a whole lot of opportunity cost of other things you could be doing with 3 trades.

Pookus McFly wrote:I remember when Cleary was too expensive to fit into teams last year and people were just going to wait and get him cheaper.

-Seven consecutive price rises to tack an extra $165k on his price
-His price dipped about $30k over the next two games, the lowest it would be for the rest of the season.
-Maxed out at $1.21M, $237k higher than his starting price, and $166k higher than his 2022 price

Cleary is only $77k more expensive than his starting price last year.
Im just too scared to run without the bloke who never dipped below $1.1M in 2021

Clearly averaged close to 600 kick metres per week, which peaked at over 800 metres one week. He has more to lose than other players because of the new scoring system. That is 10 points per week less -- more than any other comparable player. Comparing is price to last year gives false confidence. He is priced at a maximum

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Clearly averaged close to 600 kick metres per week, which peaked at over 800 metres one week. He has more to lose than other players because of the new scoring system. That is 10 points per week less -- more than any other comparable plyer

It is already accounted for in his price. Why he is so cheap, compared with his average last season.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Clearly averaged close to 600 kick metres per week, which peaked at over 800 metres one week. He has more to lose than other players because of the new scoring system. That is 10 points per week less -- more than any other comparable plyer

I actually think you are dead on with your prediction about him losing 10 points per week:
averaged 3 TBs per game, so will lose 3 points in nerfs
averaged 1 offload per game, could be +1-2 points
averaged 520 kick metres, loses 8.5 points
= 9.5 - 10.5 reduction

But the thing is that he averaged 92.8 so he can afford some regression. Lets say he loses 10 points and averages 82.8. Hes priced at 84.3. So you might be paying the tiniest bit overs, but isnt that worth it for a captain who averages 82.8? Nobody else will come close