NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 92 - Fanatics Anonymous Off Season

mattnz wrote:

It is already accounted for in his price. Why he is so cheap, compared with his average last season.

Sure but it is still overs. If you adjust by 10 points, He is priced at his maximum from last year. His value as a top-priced cash cow (rising 200k in value will not be repeated this year) You are buying at his maximum price

Pookus McFly wrote:

I actually think you are dead on with your prediction about him losing 10 points per week:
averaged 3 TBs per game, so will lose 3 points in nerfs
averaged 1 offload per game, could be +1-2 points
averaged 520 kick metres, loses 8.5 points
= 9.5 - 10.5 reduction

But the thing is that he averaged 92.8 so he can afford some regression. Lets say he loses 10 points and averages 82.8. Hes priced at 84.3. So you might be paying the tiniest bit overs, but isnt that worth it for a captain who averages 82.8? Nobody else will come close

Any regression would decrease from 82.8... I would say he cannot do better than last year and it is quite likely he will regress. That is my call. I think the opportunity costs of buying him at the start are too high. Especially if he does not play R1. It is not equivalent to the situation last year. Furthermore, that awful tattoo is going funk with his mojo

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Sure but it is still overs. If you adjust by 10 points, He is priced at his maximum from last year. His value as a top-priced cash cow (rising 200k in value will not be repeated this year) You are buying at his maximum price

I think it is fair to say that all of the following assumptions are likely to be true (short of Cleary injury):
1. The winner will have Cleary in their side at the end of the season
2. It will cost 3 trades to get Cleary in (without trading out other season keepers to bring him in)
3. Cleary will outscore the next best captaincy option by at least 10 points per week

Giving up 10 points per week and 3 trades is unlikely to be able to be made up elsewhere in your squad. You are just getting to replace basement priced players with undervalued mid-rangers.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Sure but it is still overs. If you adjust by 10 points, He is priced at his maximum from last year. His value as a top-priced cash cow (rising 200k in value will not be repeated this year) You are buying at his maximum price

Definitely buying at his maximum but i think what you havent accounted for is the value out of him potentially being the best captaincy option in the game. Also, you need to 'lock in' points somewhere. Not everyone on your team needs to improve to be a worthwhile selection. Its about getting the right mix of guns/mid-rangers/cows. In isolation it may be easy to say player x has more room to improve than player y but in reality its also about maximum points. Guns are guns for a reason so ill give you the fact that he will drop in price but it doesnt mean he will be a bad pick. There are different ways to approach this game, a strategy without Cleary could work for sure but for me, ill happily lock in the points he scores and will sleep easy knowing he is my captain as well.

mattnz wrote:

I think it is fair to say that all of the following assumptions are likely to be true (short of Cleary injury):
1. The winner will have Cleary in their side at the end of the season
2. It will cost 3 trades to get Cleary in (without trading out other season keepers to bring him in)
3. Cleary will outscore the next best captaincy option by at least 10 points per week

Giving up 10 points per week and 3 trades is unlikely to be able to be made up elsewhere in your squad. You are just getting to replace basement priced players with undervalued mid-rangers.

MattNZ, there are very few, if any basement priced players worth picking even in your 18-21, whereas there were many last year. You will be giving up a lot more than 10 points in your 13-17, I can guarantee you!

1/ The winner will have Burton in their side (he will increase his kick metre score even with the new scoring)
2/ Cleary will be at least 100k cheaper sometime early in the season.
3/ There are a few challengers for Cleary's crown and it will be much closer than 10 points. Cleary's last season was a pinnacle and his average as listed is much more affected than those who may match him. Trbojevic for example kicked much less than Cleary

Personally wouldn't be starting without Cleary unless you've got a really really good voodoo doll and heaps of needles to put in that shoulder. I did it last year thinking I was cool and edgy to go against the grain, nah it just made the fantasy experience shit because I wasn't inside the top 10k until like round 15.

If you went into a lab and created a genetically perfect NRL fantasy player it would be Cleary - insane touches of the footy on a good attacking side, massive KM, plenty of tackles, brilliant goal kicker. If you think his shoulder will hamper him slightly, Panthers maybe come back to the pack a little bit, Luai is a bit more involved. That perfect storm against him and he would still probably average 70-75. Considering the only two who averaged more than 70 last year are Turbo, coming off a generational attacking season and DCE, and both will lose points to scoring changes.

Plus consider the trades you'll have to make to bring him in, points you'll lose by not bringing him in, that small amount of cash you're saving by bringing him in late won't go far enough in the long run.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Any regression would decrease from 82.8... I would say he cannot do better than last year and it is quite likely he will regress. That is my call. I think the opportunity costs of buying him at the start are too high. Especially if he does not play R1. It is not equivalent to the situation last year

Even in that situation, I still think he can afford to regress a little (the caveat being how much is too much). But paying overs for someone averaging, say ~78, when other options are making 60 is something I am absolutely fine with. Could be a massive boost for you if he does come out and underperform significantly though, the ultimate anti-POD move. I respect your strategy, we do love posters who sit outside the group think here at NRLFF, don't be shy to post more.

Out of curiosity, viewed EasyTiger captains from last year with no Cleary (assistant coach is structured very well to look back through unlike mine)

R13 - Hynes 49
R14 - Burton 77
R16 - Harris 18 (inj)
R17 - Johnson 54
R18 - Fifita 45
R19 - Fifita 103
R20 - Fifita 43
R21 - Haas 57
Average: 55.75 (61.1 without Harris)

You can see you’re basically playing captain roulette (in a time with higher team value, although Origin players may be missing)

I’ve started with the most expensive player the last 3 years and it hasn’t gone wrong with having a set captain (Cook 2019, Haas 2020, Cleary 2021)

Starting without Cleary is a disaster waiting to happen

If someone can spread the value to make up for the captaincy points lost then it isnt a problem. I just find that the extra 250k from downgrading to (my next half pick) DCE doesn't actually stretch that far amongst my bench anyway because when im picking all my players exclusively on being undervalued (with the exception of my captain, and maybe this year my centres),  my team is chock full of 300-500k players I dont want to upgrade (yet) anyway. It would probably just increase my price range in cash cows, but there is little point wondering about the 18-21 until TLT.

Hey lads, can't wait for another big year on here! Hope everyone enjoyed Chrissy and stayed safe.

I've just seen on the NRLPhysio that Jayden Brailey has a suspected torn achilles and has been sent for scans, however hands on achilles tests are extremely accurate so it doesn't look good for the poor fella.

Really hope it's wrong in this case, he's had an unfortunate run with injuries in his early career...

Jayden Brailey looking at 6 to 8 months out with torn achilles.

Mattnz love child to the fore (if he is still in the nrl?)

Edit rammitinmyass

Did mitch rein get a contract anywhere ? Might be an opening at knights

Ramit 1
MTB 0

Haahaha hope you're well mate

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:Hey lads, can't wait for another big year on here! Hope everyone enjoyed Chrissy and stayed safe.

I've just seen on the NRLPhysio that Jayden Brailey has a suspected torn achilles and has been sent for scans, however hands on achilles tests are extremely accurate so it doesn't look good for the poor fella.

Really hope it's wrong in this case, he's had an unfortunate run with injuries in his early career...

Yes would be very unfortunate. Would make either Randall (average 50) or Mann (average 55) must have, depending on who got the spot.

my tv broke wrote:Did mitch rein get a contract anywhere ? Might be an opening at knights

Yeah I think he ended up at the Eels? Not 100% sure though

This is a random one, but does anyone reckon they will do fantasy for the Women's NRL. I would love to have the option to get to know the players a little better. If not, is there a way we could set something up here?

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:Hey lads, can't wait for another big year on here! Hope everyone enjoyed Chrissy and stayed safe.

I've just seen on the NRLPhysio that Jayden Brailey has a suspected torn achilles and has been sent for scans, however hands on achilles tests are extremely accurate so it doesn't look good for the poor fella.

Really hope it's wrong in this case, he's had an unfortunate run with injuries in his early career...

Ouch! that's very unfortunate, not the way you want to start the season. Curious to see if they will go with a Randall/Mann combo.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

MattNZ, there are very few, if any basement priced players worth picking even in your 18-21, whereas there were many last year. You will be giving up a lot more than 10 points in your 13-17, I can guarantee you!

1/ The winner will have Burton in their side (he will increase his kick metre score even with the new scoring)
2/ Cleary will be at least 100k cheaper sometime early in the season.
3/ There are a few challengers for Cleary's crown and it will be much closer than 10 points. Cleary's last season was a pinnacle and his average as listed is much more affected than those who may match him. Trbojevic for example kicked much less than Cleary

At the end of the day it's your punt on whether to avoid Cleary and this is just a discussion board so I want you to go with what you feel is best for your team and how you think you'll get an edge over people, but alot of people didn't start with Cleary expecting he drops price but he never did. He's the highest scorer in the league and the safest captain choice by farrr. Ill gladly spend the cash on Cleary alone to save myself switching captains every week from Grant Burton Pap Mcinness lol.

If you don't captain Cleary or Trbo

Then you need to find someone that can make up the 20 point difference in scoring each week, or you'll be giving up 40 points a week.
Some of those points you can claw back with the money saved. but you'll need DCE/Fifita/Cook/whoever to increase their scoring massively from last year to close the gap.