NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 92 - Fanatics Anonymous Off Season

I will be starting with Cleary because i am not a complete goose.

The other 20 spots are up for debate

I was expecting Mann to spend a fair bit of time at lock, but with Brailey out that will change.
My guess will be that Barnett will spend most of this season in the middle. Mann to split his time between hooker & lock, Randall at hooker.
Brodie Jones might nab a spot on the edge?

my tv broke wrote:I will be starting with Cleary because i am not a complete goose.

The other 20 spots are up for debate

This is now a difficult decision because mtvb says yes but on the other hand Matt also says yes.

rhinoceroo wrote:

This is now a difficult decision because mtvb says yes but on the other hand Matt also says yes.

The most likely challenger to Clearly scoring is Burton and he is priced at 593k

He played 6 games in the halves last year... 7 are recorded but in Round 16 he was shifted back to CTR for the entire game (Tyrone May played in the HLFs)

In those games, he scored an average of 70 as a backup half (equal to Cherry Evans), with Luai taking the dominant role. There was one outlying score of 47 in that, which if removed shifts the average to 75. His average gets adjusted by 9 as opposed to Cleary's 11.5 with the new scoring system

At the Bulldogs, he will be the dominant half no doubt and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he may score up to an additional 10 points per game. At 583 k, I reckon he is an ideal captain choice and leaves an additional 457k to boost other positions. An additional 457k can easily result in an additional 40 points. The 40 points needed to be made up is if and only if Clearly does not regress and Burton does not improve in a more dominant role in the side. I am banking on using the additional 500k available wisely.

Burton will be my captain of choice. I don't buy the call that Averillo will be dominant. I am not a goose I am a dolphin

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

The most likely challenger to Clearly scoring is Burton and he is priced at 593k

He played 6 games in the halves last year... 7 are recorded but in Round 16 he was shifted back to CTR for the entire game (Tyrone May played in the HLFs)

In those games, he scored an average of 70 as a backup half (equal to Cherry Evans), with Luai taking the dominant role. There was one outlying score of 47 in that, which if removed shifts the average to 75. His average gets adjusted by 9 as opposed to Cleary's 11.5 with the new scoring system

At the Bulldogs, he will be the dominant half no doubt and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he may score up to an additional 10 points per game. At 583 k, I reckon he is an ideal captain choice and leaves an additional 457k to boost other positions. An additional 457k can easily result in an additional 40 points. The 40 points needed to be made up is if and only if Clearly does not regress and Burton does not improve in a more dominant role in the side. I am banking on using the additional 500k available wisely.

Burton will be my captain of choice. I don't buy the call that Averillo will be dominant. I am not a goose I am a dolphin

If Burton averaged 70 last season in the halves, and he loses 9 points due to reduction in km points, that puts him at 61. It puts him 20 behind Cleary's adjusted average from last season. He is also going to be next to a half that does some kicking, compared to Luai who doesn't kick for distance much at all.

Surprisingly he only played in the halves next to Luai 3 times last season, in those games Luai only kicked 114m, 85m and 124m.

Compare that with Averillo, who averaged 335 km at halfback last season.

mattnz wrote:

If Burton averaged 70 last season in the halves, and he loses 9 points due to reduction in km points, that puts him at 61. It puts him 20 behind Cleary's adjusted average from last season. He is also going to be next to a half that does some kicking, compared to Luai who doesn't kick for distance much at all.

Surprisingly he only played in the halves next to Luai 3 times last season, in those games Luai only kicked 114m, 85m and 124m.

Compare that with Averillo, who averaged 335 km at halfback last season.

You would not try to cherry-pick stats would you Matt?

If you have a look on the Bulldogs 2022 website Burton is listed as Halfback and Averillo as a CTR. Averillo's Kick metres in at HLF and 5/8 fluctuated a lot depending on who he was partnering. His average across the season and 283 metres and was artificially boosted when paired with Wakeham. There is no certainty that Averillo will play in the halves. There is also Flanagan, Biondi-Ono or indeed Wakeham. Burton was purchased as a dominant HLF and is expected to shine

PS Bulldogs forum suggests that Averillo will play in CTR and one of Flannigan, Biondi-Odo or Wakeham will partner Burton ant half. There are also quite a few suggesting JMK is cooked and a 240k base price HOK name Joshua Cook will aim up at the start of the season.

On the other side of the premium centre debate, is anyone else concerned by Jack Bird playing lock? The crabwalk has been nerfed and he loves a missed tackle. Limited sample size, but he averaged 4.5 MTs in his 4 games in the second row. He will be better supported in the middle, but I could see his negatives counteracting any attacking stats and him sticking to a 45 average. I prefer both Burton and Aitken to him by some margin.

Camo123 wrote:Out of curiosity, viewed EasyTiger captains from last year with no Cleary (assistant coach is structured very well to look back through unlike mine)

R13 - Hynes 49
R14 - Burton 77
R16 - Harris 18 (inj)
R17 - Johnson 54
R18 - Fifita 45
R19 - Fifita 103
R20 - Fifita 43
R21 - Haas 57
Average: 55.75 (61.1 without Harris)

You can see you’re basically playing captain roulette (in a time with higher team value, although Origin players may be missing)

I’ve started with the most expensive player the last 3 years and it hasn’t gone wrong with having a set captain (Cook 2019, Haas 2020, Cleary 2021)

While I appreciate being used as a real world example, I think restricting it to R21 is a little bit cherry picking my Captaincy Roulette;

R13 - Hynes 49 (bye, most popular C choice)
R14 - Burton 77
R15 - Cleary 107 (Excluded)
R16 - Harris 18 (inj)
R17 - Johnson 54 (bye, most popular C choice)
R18 - Fifita 45 (restings, most popular C choice)
R19 - Fifita 103
R20 - Fifita 43 (a poor gamble ulitmately - drawn in by the Bulldogs fixture, but reduced minutes...)
R21 - Haas 57
R22 - Haas 69
R23 - Haas 75
R24 - Trbojevic 103
R25 - Trbojevic 150

Average: 70.25 (75 without Harris)

Comparing against Cleary across that period:

R15 - Cleary 107 (Excluded - because I had him too)
R22 - Cleary 74
R23 - Cleary 106
R24 - Cleary 59
R25 - Cleary 82

Average: 80.25 (10 point loss per round)

Comparing Specific matched-uprounds:
R22 - Haas 69
R23 - Haas 75
R24 - Trbojevic 103
R25 - Trbojevic 150

Average: 99.25 (19 point gain per round)


The real problem for me was being stupid about Tom Trbojevic...
So, adding him as the fill-in option for when Cleary wasn't available, plus other popular options when neither were available:

R13 - Hynes 49 (bye, most popular C choice)
R14 - Burton 77 (can't recall the other popular C choice that round, but Burton will do)
R15 - Cleary 107 (Excluded - if I don't get to count him, the alternative doesn't either)
R16 - Trbojevic 75 (while I was getting Harris's 18)
R17 - Johnson 54 (bye, most popular C choice)
R18 - Fifita 45 (restings, most popular C choice)
R19 - Trbojevic 83
R20 - Trbojevic 137 (while I was getting Fifita's 43)
R21 - Trbojevic 61
R22 - Cleary 74
R23 - Cleary 106
R24 - Cleary 59
R25 - Cleary 82

Average: 75.17 (About a 5 point loss per round for me)

TLDR: I would say the biggest issue isn't so much playing Cleary or not over that period of 2021, it was more that:
- Going against the popular Captaincy choice (cost me 151 points of Captaincy in just 2 rounds)
- Captaincy Roulette will have some (minor) wins, but it almost always will get you with a big loss at some point - it's generally not worth the stress!

Pookus McFly wrote:On the other side of the premium centre debate, is anyone else concerned by Jack Bird playing lock? The crabwalk has been nerfed and he loves a missed tackle. Limited sample size, but he averaged 4.5 MTs in his 4 games in the second row. He will be better supported in the middle, but I could see his negatives counteracting any attacking stats and him sticking to a 45 average. I prefer both Burton and Aitken to him by some margin.

I have come to the same conclusion.

He looks like he will be this year's Tino. Looks to have a great role, but never scores as well as you would expect in that position, despite getting lots of minutes.

rhinoceroo wrote:

This is now a difficult decision because mtvb says yes but on the other hand Matt also says yes.

Maybe i am running interference

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:I will be just fine with purchasing Cleary when he represents better value. There is a strong chance that he will be much cheaper at some stage in the season. If you buy him at his current price you are paying overs and there are few options for paying under to fill out your 21 with other players. Just my perspective... I don't think the "collective wisdom" on this is necessarily right. Like I said. The biggest problem with not owning Clearly last year was the amount his price increased. He was essentially a top-priced cash cow. This year he is very unlikely to do that.

I'd suggest the biggest problem for non-owners was missing the points rather than the gain.
There were probably 30+? players that made a $200k or so gain last year - you didn't have to get Cleary to make good money.

But a guy who scored 4 centuries and 9 scores of 87 or more in his first 12 games and is a reliable Captaincy to double that gain is the real killer.

It's the points that make him a must have selection rather than value.

I think MTB said it best last year: you can't win the comp with your starting squad, but you can lose it

if Cleary is fit for round 1, you have to buy him.

However, let's say he's not named in round 1 and media says he's due back round 2-4, with no clear info on exactly when. What do you do then? Pick Turbo instead and hope he starts strong? Start him anyway?

Bethany_B wrote:if Cleary is fit for round 1, you have to buy him.

However, let's say he's not named in round 1 and media says he's due back round 2-4, with no clear info on exactly when. What do you do then? Pick Turbo instead and hope he starts strong? Start him anyway?

I think if they say he is due to play round 3, that is the cutoff for me that I would still have him in the side. Anything longer than that and I would look at other options for captain to start the season. Still wouldnt have Turbo though. Almost impossible to keep up his scoring from last season and high injury risk. Sure to be cheaper at some point during the season to pick him up.

Bethany_B wrote:if Cleary is fit for round 1, you have to buy him.

However, let's say he's not named in round 1 and media says he's due back round 2-4, with no clear info on exactly when. What do you do then? Pick Turbo instead and hope he starts strong? Start him anyway?

Manly have Panthers and Roosters first up. Wouldn't have Turbo as a captaincy option in either of those games. (They have a juicy schedule after that but first two fixtures have potential for him to lose a fair bit of coin.)

Current draft, trying to fit both Cleary and Burton in. I need a few more options in the middle, but think it has potential.

Grant
TPJ, DWalker, Stone
Capewell, Blore
Cleary, Mann
Burton, Suaallii
Papy Savage, Sloan

Clune, Amone, Ilias, Randall
JCook, Luki, Jones, BTrbo

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

The most likely challenger to Clearly scoring is Burton and he is priced at 593k

He played 6 games in the halves last year... 7 are recorded but in Round 16 he was shifted back to CTR for the entire game (Tyrone May played in the HLFs)

In those games, he scored an average of 70 as a backup half (equal to Cherry Evans), with Luai taking the dominant role. There was one outlying score of 47 in that, which if removed shifts the average to 75. His average gets adjusted by 9 as opposed to Cleary's 11.5 with the new scoring system

At the Bulldogs, he will be the dominant half no doubt and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he may score up to an additional 10 points per game. At 583 k, I reckon he is an ideal captain choice and leaves an additional 457k to boost other positions. An additional 457k can easily result in an additional 40 points. The 40 points needed to be made up is if and only if Clearly does not regress and Burton does not improve in a more dominant role in the side. I am banking on using the additional 500k available wisely.

Burton will be my captain of choice. I don't buy the call that Averillo will be dominant. I am not a goose I am a dolphin

Ive got no issues starting with Burton but im not brave enough to captain him. I captain him over origin last season and he relies on attacking stats to pump his score up. I couldnt trust his base stats to captain him.
Bulldogs have a tough draw first 10 rounds so not sure how many attacking stats he will get

Honey Badger wrote:

Ive got no issues starting with Burton but im not brave enough to captain him. I captain him over origin last season and he relies on attacking stats to pump his score up. I couldnt trust his base stats to captain him.
Bulldogs have a tough draw first 10 rounds so not sure how many attacking stats he will get

If you don't have Clearly or Turbo then you'll have at least a couple of Cook/Haas/Difita/DCE so they would be the captaincy options over Burton anyway.

Also... Papenhuyzen averaged over 70 in non-injury games at fullback last year.

I think if Cleary was out I would probably get in DCE & D. Fifita. Probably the only 2 players capable of matching Cleary's scores are Turbo & D. Fifita...Turbo has 2 tough opening games so would not expect big scores but D. Fifita has a nice opening draw where you could easily captain him & expect him to go large.

easytiger wrote:TLDR: I would say the biggest issue isn't so much playing Cleary or not over that period of 2021, it was more that:
- Going against the popular Captaincy choice (cost me 151 points of Captaincy in just 2 rounds)
- Captaincy Roulette will have some (minor) wins, but it almost always will get you with a big loss at some point - it's generally not worth the stress!

You're correct with Captain Roulette but I wouldn't focus on any part of that extra 4 week end of year sample size though of comparing captains especially since he dominated the rest of the year.

just further on cleary...fantasy rule no. 1 when picking your team the 1st player you pick is your captain & you pick the player who you think will be the top scoring player regardless of price. Cleary is comfortably the best player in fantasy who will score the most points & as Mattnz mentioned previously he is 10-15 points better than the next best fantasy player.
Conclusion = Cleary should be the 1st person named in your team
Also early season you play it safe & tactically you go with the crowd the time for taking punts is later on. If you punt on a differential captain from the start & ignore Cleary when his ownership will be massive then it's a hard road back if he scores 70+ each week. If say Cleary fails then your rank won't be affected as much as he's highly owned.