NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 92 - Fanatics Anonymous Off Season

Yeah not sure Hook is as sketchy as the Donkeys made him to look to cover their own arses. Gus flicked him when he realised 5 years was actually 10 to cover his own skin.

L-Jimmy wrote:

Yeah, and the Cows at least make the away team play in the heat after a flight.

Still I can't go past the Dragons. Lots of movement in and out, lots of young guns and elderly types. A coach who'll get nervous about his job. Plus a spine that is Hunt+alsoRans and severely light in impact props.... nail it on.

I liked the look of most of our kids late last season and think Hook is actually decent at developing players, but… we definitely have the vibe of having built an outstanding NSW Cup team rather than an NRL side. Still hoping for a 9-10 win season and something to build on. But could be 4-5 wins if things go pear-shaped

If I was the Knights and wasn’t confident on Mann/Crossland/Randall, I’d try and get Liddle or Simpkin. With Koro going there 2023, you know the Tigers won’t be able to resist shipping someone early and paying most of their deal.

robelgordo wrote:If I was the Knights and wasn’t confident on Mann/Crossland/Randall, I’d try and get Liddle or Simpkin. With Koro going there 2023, you know the Tigers won’t be able to resist shipping someone early and paying most of their deal.

Nah, I reckon the Tigers will look at Liddle and Simpkins' injury histories and decide they don't want to risk running half a season with the-next-equivalent-to-Elijah-Taylor stinking up dummy half - particularly with Douehi a while off. Can't see a trade there.

Looking around at other clubs, if the Knights go shopping then Granville or Havili look most likely, or perhaps someone from Cowboys or Titans (or even Salmon from Panthers?), but I can't imagine any of these options have them salivating.

L-Jimmy wrote:

Nah, I reckon the Tigers will look at Liddle and Simpkins' injury histories and decide they don't want to risk running half a season with the-next-equivalent-to-Elijah-Taylor stinking up dummy half - particularly with Douehi a while off. Can't see a trade there.

Looking around at other clubs, if the Knights go shopping then Granville or Havili look most likely, or perhaps someone from Cowboys or Titans (or even Salmon from Panthers?), but I can't imagine any of these options have them salivating.

Havili has just moved to Souths, who have obviously got him for a reason (bench middle who can cover hooker).

Fox, but some interesting possibilities for Knights' 2022 hooker here: https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/nrl-2022-jayden-brailey-achilles-injury-return-date-newcastle-knights-hooker-chris-randall-josh-hodgson-jacob-liddle-brandon-smith-swapdeal-loan/news-story/7d615d08684ae47b63849ae389c9f026

Thoughts on Burton? I've seen some people really bullish on him and some that want nothing to do with him, so not sure what to make of it all.

Pros:

* Playing half but available at CTR
* Cheaper than a genuine gun half
* Looks like he'll be getting the lion's share of KMs at the Doggies

Cons:

* 593k is a lot for a centre
* He's playing for the spoon holders
* Buying players after a career year is generally a bad idea

Bethany_B wrote:Thoughts on Burton? I've seen some people really bullish on him and some that want nothing to do with him, so not sure what to make of it all.

Pros:

* Playing half but available at CTR
* Cheaper than a genuine gun half
* Looks like he'll be getting the lion's share of KMs at the Doggies

Cons:

* 593k is a lot for a centre
* He's playing for the spoon holders
* Buying players after a career year is generally a bad idea

593k is a lot for a centre but it isn't a lot for a dominant running half who has a large share of the kick metres

Far from position of death, think there will be plenty of options at CTR this year

Burton, Aitken, Bird are potential guns

Sualli, Crichton, Gildart, May, Cotric 2nd Tigers centre as potential cheapies - many of whom are also DPP. plus bound to be a couple of other cheapies come up before season starts.

now watch as they all go down in the next 2 months, leaving us scrambling for options again.
Which is why my strategy will be to pick the players that won't get injured or suspended

Bethany_B wrote:Thoughts on Burton? I've seen some people really bullish on him and some that want nothing to do with him, so not sure what to make of it all.

Pros:

* Playing half but available at CTR
* Cheaper than a genuine gun half
* Looks like he'll be getting the lion's share of KMs at the Doggies

Cons:

* 593k is a lot for a centre
* He's playing for the spoon holders
* Buying players after a career year is generally a bad idea

Priced at 47.6

He already makes close to 40 points in base stats in the halves (tackles, run meteres, and kick meters)
I don't think you can go wrong starting with him at CTR

Milchcow wrote:
Far from position of death, think there will be plenty of options at CTR this year

Burton, Aitken, Bird are potential guns

Sualli, Crichton, Gildart, May, Cotric 2nd Tigers centre as potential cheapies - many of whom are also DPP. plus bound to be a couple of other cheapies come up before season starts.

now watch as they all go down in the next 2 months, leaving us scrambling for options again.
Which is why my strategy will be to pick the players that won't get injured or suspended

The 'gun' term for centers I think may be a bit misleading this year - particularly as it comes to allocating cash.

Take Aitken and Bird. They are likely to score like 2RFs in the CTR position. This raises them well above Cotric/Crichton/Sualli, who are likely to score like WFB/CTRs. So on this basis they are 'gun' centers.

But neither Aitken nor Bird is likely to be a 'gun' 2RF - that's more your Arrow/Murray/Fifita/Leilua sort of mob.

But we can't select Aitken/Bird in 2RF.

Well, actually we kind of can. Because we pay for them in moneys, and can do foregone value estimates.

No question you want them in your finishing 17.

But there are other important questions! (i've picked R17 out of the air because 16 is convenient. ymmv)

1. can you buy them for 630 in R17 instead of 540 in R1?
1a. A dollar is worth less in R17, so that's cheaper real cost
1b. It also means you can use the CTR position for cows, earning cash and decreasing real cost again.

2. what are the scoring differentials from A/Bird to Cotric/Crichton? Are they sufficient to get you left behind?
2a. Maybe! Probably should model this. But at say a 45 average over a 25 average (each), over 16 rounds, that's 800 points. Which is many.

3. To help us figure out from 2, what would you alternative use of ~600k earn you from R1 to R16?
3a. In my draft team, that would turn KHetherington->STupou, Leniu->Haas. Which earns, fuck, like a billion points.

On this basis I'm leaning towards flicking can't-pass-Aitken for a cheapie.

Blindside wrote:Not sure if posted. Some good content

https://amateursfantasysports.com/nrl/

Bumping this as I found it pretty useful for cheat notes, since I can't be arsed doing any heavy lifting myself yet. Looks like they are updating it pretty regularly too.

L-Jimmy wrote:

The 'gun' term for centers I think may be a bit misleading this year - particularly as it comes to allocating cash.

Take Aitken and Bird. They are likely to score like 2RFs in the CTR position. This raises them well above Cotric/Crichton/Sualli, who are likely to score like WFB/CTRs. So on this basis they are 'gun' centers.

But neither Aitken nor Bird is likely to be a 'gun' 2RF - that's more your Arrow/Murray/Fifita/Leilua sort of mob.

But we can't select Aitken/Bird in 2RF.

Well, actually we kind of can. Because we pay for them in moneys, and can do foregone value estimates.

No question you want them in your finishing 17.

But there are other important questions! (i've picked R17 out of the air because 16 is convenient. ymmv)

1. can you buy them for 630 in R17 instead of 540 in R1?
1a. A dollar is worth less in R17, so that's cheaper real cost
1b. It also means you can use the CTR position for cows, earning cash and decreasing real cost again.

2. what are the scoring differentials from A/Bird to Cotric/Crichton? Are they sufficient to get you left behind?
2a. Maybe! Probably should model this. But at say a 45 average over a 25 average (each), over 16 rounds, that's 800 points. Which is many.

3. To help us figure out from 2, what would you alternative use of ~600k earn you from R1 to R16?
3a. In my draft team, that would turn KHetherington->STupou, Leniu->Haas. Which earns, fuck, like a billion points.

On this basis I'm leaning towards flicking can't-pass-Aitken for a cheapie.

You can select Aitken or Bird as your edge players and leave spaces open in the centers for cheaper players. Then later in the season you can move them into the centers, without it costing a trade to do so. That is my plan for Aitken. Seeing a lot more value at center than on the edge at the moment.

Another guy that is also dual and should provide value this season if he starts at center is Tago. Likely to get a shot at starting edge at some point in the season, without Capewell there. Could end up a great buy if Martin or Kikau are out during the season for a few weeks.

Two of Aitken, Bird, and Burton will go down within the first 2 weeks of the season, for awkward timeframes.

I'll tell you which two a bit later.

Milch is going to pick one of them. His other cheapie ctr will cop a headknock in the same week.

my tv broke wrote:Two of Aitken, Bird, and Burton will go down within the first 2 weeks of the season, for awkward timeframes.

I'll tell you which two a bit later.

Milch is going to pick one of them. His other cheapie ctr will cop a headknock in the same week.

Now is later.

Ok Team, lets have your comments on this...... I think it's too 'Middie'

Grant
Curran TPJ Radley
RFM Capewell
Cleary Hastings
Cotric Burton
Pappy Coates Sualli

Randall Ese'Ese BJones Ilias

220K x 4

Heads up on a potential bolter for the Eels on the wing in 2022.

The third in the trilogy of Fijian wingers

Semi Radrada -> Maika Sivo -> Solomone Naiduki

Killed it in the lower grades last year and a fighting chance of unseating Dunster or Simonsson for Round 1

Moanaman wrote:Ok Team, lets have your comments on this...... I think it's too 'Middie'

Grant
Curran TPJ Radley
RFM Capewell
Cleary Hastings
Cotric Burton
Pappy Coates Sualli

Randall  Ese'Ese BJones Ilias

220K x 4

There's a lot of time for rookies to emerge between now and TLT.

Finding 4 220s from the ~28 listed who'll start even off the bench will be tricky. Finding 4 that you want in your side harder still.

I mean, if that all comes through then bonza team! I don't share your faith in Capewell turning top-tier, Grant being worth it first up, Cotric scoring well, or Radley being anything but a bloody liability. But still, good team.

Interesting stat on Cleary!!

Only 68% of the top 100 players had him last year it seems. Unless I am interpreting the footystatistics site wrong

https://www.footystatistics.com/index.php?p=504120

Was he as must-have as suggested?

Burton second player in my team after Cleary.

Don't think we've even scratched the surface of how good he can be.

Even if the Dogs suck he'll have KM fucking galore and his boot is giant. Dogs should be much better this year anyway. And he'll be part of the reason.

Storm loved the Munster long kick JAC go chase it and score. Think we'll be seeing Burton send the Fox to go fetch in a similar way.

Bird I'm less sold on. Frustrated last year in the forwards with the slapsies gone. Sure the fact he's in the forwards will make him more reliable scorers than most centres (especially given so many people just grab a bunch of nuffie centres and roll the dice) but I'm not that compelled on dropping the money on him to start.

Pretty keen on Aitken but it's probably Burton and centre roulette for me to start with.