NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 92 - Fanatics Anonymous Off Season

One thing I will try to focus on when I pick my team this season is good coverage. I have been guilty of being lapse in the past, skimping on a position in order to fit all the players I want based in points/value. But NRL in the Coronapocalypse is going to see players test positive and sit a week out as a regular occurrence. A lack of DPP depth and poor positional coverage is going to see many teams playing with less than 17 men some weeks or wasting trades to plug holes.

Lchy wrote:Anyone game enough to take an early punt on Latrell when he comes back? Could actually be a sweet POD for anyone who grabs him early. He'll pick up GK points which should negate less TBs, plus he averaged 55 last year so could very easily elevate to keeper status with those extra points

Latrell should be at least a top 4 WFB this year with the GK, maybe top 2. Gonna be hard to bring in him in as soon as he's back because cows won't have generated enough, would probably need an injury to a pricier player, can't really leave 300k in the bank for the first few rounds.

mattnz wrote:

You can select Aitken or Bird as your edge players and leave spaces open in the centers for cheaper players. Then later in the season you can move them into the centers, without it costing a trade to do so. That is my plan for Aitken. Seeing a lot more value at center than on the edge at the moment.

Pretty much what my plan is early days. Plenty of potential cheapies knocking about at centre that can be used as cows and get 25-30 points while Burton and Aitken plug away in HLF/2RF. Once we get a couple of weeks into the season and the next lot of cows turn up you can cash out those cheap centres, move Burton and Aitken to get true keepers at HLF and 2RF

Welshy wrote:surely some potential in Bradman Best to elevate to CTR gun if he remains injury free?

can we do a study around blockheads and how it translates to fantasy scoring. more merit than the great chin debate of 2021, if you ask me. don't ask me though.

RE Burton, there seems to be alot of cheap halves and ctrs this season so do you start Burton in the halves or just start him in the ctrs. I guess its a question will guys like Amone, Clue, Hastings, Ilias with reduced points for kms score better than guys like Tago, Crichton, Penisini, Suaalii with reduced points for tackle busts

Honey Badger wrote:
RE Burton, there seems to be alot of cheap halves and ctrs this season so do you start Burton in the halves or just start him in the ctrs. I guess its a question will guys like Amone, Clue, Hastings, Ilias with reduced points for kms score better than guys like Tago, Crichton, Penisini, Suaalii with reduced points for tackle busts

All of it will of course come back to what structure across your 17 gives the likely highest base & ceiling for your overall squad - that'll always be the decider and will be different for each team.

But in terms of who scores better: If you're comparing players at the same price, then positionally Halves will on average outscore Centres - I don't think that changes.

If you're comparing how nerfed they are, then I'd imagine Tago, Crichton, Penisini, Suaalii are on average 2-3 TB's per game, so losing 2-3 points off what might otherwise have been their "normal" expected average.
Meanwhile, Amone, Clue, Hastings, Ilias are maybe in the 150-270KM per game (I'd expect only Ilias has a chance of being a dominant kicker out of that lot, so could be higher), but say 7-13 points becomes 5-9 points in KM, i.e. a bigger 2-4 point downgrade, plus an additional TB downgrades of on average about 1 or 2 points.

Last year Halfbacks averaged 18 points more than Centres, Five-Eighths average 11 points more than Centres, so that gap has probably closed to 15 points and 7 points respectively (over Centres).

Personally, I'd look at JS as the biggest deciding factor, probably followed by a preference for Halves over Centres still (assuming a similar upside)

Haven't heard anything about Blake Ferguson since he was arrested. Still sitting in a Japnese jail cell?

Could be a late pick up for a club who needs a winger if someone goes down in the pre-season.

Pookus McFly wrote:One thing I will try to focus on when I pick my team this season is good coverage. I have been guilty of being lapse in the past, skimping on a position in order to fit all the players I want based in points/value. But NRL in the Coronapocalypse is going to see players test positive and sit a week out as a regular occurrence. A lack of DPP depth and poor positional coverage is going to see many teams playing with less than 17 men some weeks or wasting trades to plug holes.

Spot on. Going to be some rough weeks and it’ll be a miracle if anyone can manufacture 17 to play every week (outside of bye weeks). DPP even more valuable.

Jumping Marlin wrote:
Spot on.  Going to be some rough weeks and it’ll be a miracle if anyone can manufacture 17 to play every week (outside of bye weeks).  DPP even more valuable.

Strat: pick a team of older blokes with young families whove 'moved on' from the party life

The younger fellas will catch covid every other week sharing bags in the pub dunnies

my tv broke wrote:

Strat: pick a team of older blokes with young families whove 'moved on' from the party life

The younger  fellas will catch covid every other week sharing bags in the pub dunnies

Still got it.

Got some analysis done around the new scoring system

For the stats I am about to post here is how I generated them.

Reducing TBs and Kick Meters is straight forward from last years stats

Have added in ruck infringements and inside 10 based on last years stats. With the rule change that these will now be penalties 40m from the line, more of these may be penalties (or not given at all, depending on how much Phil Gould whinges in public about the amount of penalties being blown)

I have awarded 3.5 points per offload. Based on Supercoach stats, about 82% of offloads are effective, with the rest ineffective. If Fantasy scores similarly then 3.5 points slightly underscores offloading.
I have applied 3.5 across the board though - there is no attempt to distinguish which players are better offloaders than others

I have made no attempt to cater for escape from in goal points.

This is every player whose 2022 starting price is less than their 2021 average based on my approximation of the new scoring system

Name	GP	Old Stats	New Stats	Priced	Discount
Taylan May	1	42.0	36.0	24.1	11.9
Toby Sexton	4	59.5	55.6	48.2	7.4
Peter Mamouzelos	3	41.3	39.3	32.1	7.2
Simi Sasagi	2	32.0	31.3	24.1	7.2
Stephen Crichton	23	35.8	34.6	28.1	6.5
Davvy Moale	2	23.5	23.5	17.7	5.8
J'maine Hopgood	5	29.0	29.1	24.1	5.0
Zane Musgrove	5	30.2	29.9	24.9	5.0
Will Penisini	3	33.7	32.5	28.1	4.4
Tautau Moga	1	32.0	32.0	28.1	3.9
Paul Turner	2	28.0	25.0	21.7	3.3
Lachlan Ilias	1	31.0	27.0	24.1	2.9
Xavier Savage	3	32.7	30.8	28.1	2.7
Chris Randall	5	31.6	30.8	28.1	2.7
Tukimihia Simpkins	5	21.8	23.5	20.9	2.6
Griffin Neame	3	35.0	34.5	32.1	2.4
Reuben Cotter	6	43.0	42.2	40.2	2.0
Lindsay Smith	1	22.0	23.5	21.7	1.8
Trent Loiero	6	34.5	33.3	32.1	1.2
Daejarn Asi	5	26.8	25.3	24.1	1.2
Esan Marsters	7	27.3	27.9	27.1	0.8
Max Feagai	4	28.3	25.6	24.9	0.7
Hayze Perham	1	20.0	20.0	19.3	0.7
Cooper Johns	5	23.4	22.3	21.7	0.6
Jayden Sullivan	5	41.0	38.6	38.1	0.5
Fletcher Baker	14	20.1	19.7	19.3	0.4
David Nofoaluma	24	37.6	36.9	36.5	0.4
Matthew Lodge	18	46.3	46.2	46.0	0.2
Tevita Pangai Junior	18	52.8	53.8	53.6	0.1
Sean Russell	2	21.0	21.0	20.9	0.1
Teig Wilton	15	40.1	39.0	38.9	0.1

These are the most overpriced players 
Many of these are benchies who averaged less then 19 points a game (ie minimum price)

Moala Graham-Taufa	1	-1.0	-1.0	19.3	-20.3
Brendan Piakura	1	1.0	1.0	19.3	-18.3
Jaeman Salmon	2	4.0	3.0	19.3	-16.3
Christian Tuipulotu	1	5.0	4.0	19.3	-15.3
Jackson Topine	8	31.0	30.8	44.2	-13.4
Brad Schneider	1	6.0	6.0	19.3	-13.3
Ben Trbojevic	4	8.8	8.5	19.3	-10.8
Royce Hunt	2	8.0	8.8	19.3	-10.5
Mikaele Ravalawa	16	39.9	36.6	46.7	-10.1
Adam Pompey	16	32.3	29.4	39.4	-10.0
Tyson Gamble	13	45.6	39.8	49.3	-9.5
Reece Walsh	16	48.6	44.3	52.6	-8.3
Blake Taaffe	5	20.4	18.8	26.5	-7.7
Tepai Moeroa	4	12.0	12.1	19.3	-7.1
Daniel Suluka-Fifita	9	12.9	12.2	19.3	-7.1
Braydon Trindall	18	35.3	31.4	38.4	-7.0
Daine Laurie	19	38.8	35.1	42.0	-6.9
Joseph Vuna	2	13.0	12.5	19.3	-6.8
Ben Thomas	4	12.5	12.6	19.3	-6.6
Herman Ese'ese	3	13.3	12.7	19.3	-6.6
Albert Kelly	8	41.1	37.7	44.2	-6.5
Herbie Farnworth	20	41.4	38.9	44.9	-6.0
Selwyn Cobbo	7	33.4	30.4	36.1	-5.8
Billy Walters	2	13.5	13.5	19.3	-5.8
Haumole Olakau'atu	18	46.9	44.4	49.8	-5.4
Talatau (Junior) Amone	11	24.8	22.8	28.1	-5.3
Moses Suli	12	29.4	26.6	31.8	-5.2
Jack De Belin	11	48.9	48.0	52.9	-5.0
Jakob Arthur	7	34.9	31.2	36.1	-4.9
Wiremu Greig	2	15.5	14.5	19.3	-4.8
Aaron Schoupp	13	30.5	28.3	33.0	-4.7
Heilum Luki	11	32.6	30.7	35.3	-4.5
Sebastian Kris	20	29.4	27.5	31.8	-4.3
Dean Ieremia	10	24.9	22.7	27.0	-4.3
Jayden Brailey	22	56.5	55.2	59.5	-4.3
Jayden Campbell	6	43.7	40.0	44.2	-4.2
Payne Haas	20	61.7	58.7	62.8	-4.1
Josh Jackson	17	57.9	56.9	61.0	-4.1
andrew McCullough	21	52.0	50.5	54.5	-4.1
Damien Cook	21	59.4	57.5	61.6	-4.0
Reuben Garrick	24	53.3	49.6	53.6	-4.0
Jahrome Hughes	22	61.6	55.0	58.9	-4.0

@Milchcow

Love you.

Some of this pricing really is bizarre

Jackson Topine has been overpriced by  almost 14 points based on 2021 scoring
He is not a big offloader, tackle breaker or kicker, so unless he escapes from the in goal a lot, I have no idea how they came up with his price this year

Annoyingly, there are many players massively overpriced in scoring, but hardly any underpriced.

Other players if you want to search

Nathan Cleary	16	92.8	82.4	84.3	-1.9
Jason Saab	24	28.8	27.7	29.6	-1.9
Luke Brooks	24	51.4	45.4	47.4	-1.9
Dylan Walker	17	34.6	32.0	34.0	-1.9
Jaxson Paulo	9	26.0	24.3	26.3	-1.9
Lachlan Burr	15	35.5	35.1	37.0	-1.9
Adam Clune	10	30.0	27.9	29.8	-1.9
Francis Molo	19	33.7	33.7	35.6	-1.9
Spencer Leniu	17	25.5	24.0	25.9	-1.9
Asu Kepaoa	5	19.0	17.4	19.3	-1.9
David Fusitu'a	5	18.4	17.4	19.3	-1.9
Raymond Faitala-Mariner	2	29.5	30.3	32.1	-1.9
Coen Hess	22	34.0	33.4	35.3	-1.9
Erin Clark	18	31.5	31.2	33.1	-1.9
Emre Guler	19	36.5	36.4	38.3	-1.9
Ethan Bullemor	17	26.1	24.7	26.6	-1.8
Nick Meaney	22	34.0	32.2	34.1	-1.8
Connelly Lemuelu	13	28.6	28.0	29.9	-1.8
Aaron Pene	9	26.9	26.1	27.9	-1.8
Bailey Simonsson	17	28.6	26.8	28.6	-1.8
David Fifita	21	66.5	62.4	64.2	-1.8
Renouf Atoni	14	35.4	35.0	36.8	-1.8
Joseph Manu	23	48.0	45.6	47.4	-1.8
Dominic Young	6	29.5	27.7	29.5	-1.8
Adam Keighran	13	28.5	27.2	29.0	-1.8
Kelma Tuilagi	5	25.4	23.1	24.9	-1.8
Morgan Boyle	2	21.5	21.5	23.3	-1.8
Siosifa Talakai	15	26.7	25.3	27.1	-1.8
Aaron Woods	24	36.3	36.6	38.4	-1.8
Jordan Pereira	4	27.8	24.5	26.3	-1.8
Josh King	17	24.5	23.9	25.6	-1.7
Jazz Tevaga	22	39.7	39.7	41.4	-1.7
Martin Taupau	23	47.9	47.6	49.3	-1.7
Josh Papalii	20	49.7	49.3	51.0	-1.7
Ashley Taylor	16	32.1	28.8	30.4	-1.7
Tom Eisenhuth	17	32.2	31.9	33.6	-1.7
Lachlan Lam	18	29.6	26.8	28.4	-1.7
Ronaldo Mulitalo	16	36.4	34.1	35.7	-1.7
Daniel Alvaro	19	31.1	31.3	33.0	-1.7
Jackson Ford	11	34.0	33.6	35.3	-1.7
Cody Ramsey	18	23.6	21.5	23.1	-1.7
Makahesi Makatoa	4	40.3	38.5	40.2	-1.7
Mathew Feagai	8	32.4	29.7	31.3	-1.6
Marcelo Montoya	18	29.3	27.4	29.0	-1.6
Paul Momirovski	15	38.1	35.8	37.4	-1.6
Semi Valemei	11	22.5	20.9	22.5	-1.6
Bradman Best	16	36.9	36.1	37.7	-1.6
Jake Granville	24	20.7	20.2	21.8	-1.6
Luke Metcalf	6	19.3	17.7	19.3	-1.6
Will Smith	15	18.7	17.7	19.3	-1.6
Matt Moylan	15	30.6	28.8	30.4	-1.6
Joseph Tapine	19	45.1	44.9	46.5	-1.6
Edward Kosi	5	23.4	22.5	24.1	-1.6
Murray Taulagi	20	29.1	27.4	29.0	-1.6
Luciano Leilua	24	52.3	51.3	52.9	-1.6
Brodie Jones	21	24.8	24.5	26.1	-1.6
Braden Hamlin-Uele	19	28.5	27.5	29.1	-1.6
Haze Dunster	11	24.2	22.4	23.9	-1.6
Cory Paix	4	25.3	24.4	25.9	-1.6
Moses Mbye	22	26.6	25.5	27.1	-1.6
Jack Murchie	10	27.3	27.2	28.7	-1.5
Brian Kelly	21	37.5	36.7	38.2	-1.5
Morgan Harper	20	40.4	38.6	40.2	-1.5
Freddy Lussick	6	22.5	22.6	24.1	-1.5
Xavier Coates	17	26.1	25.0	26.5	-1.5
Briton Nikora	22	43.0	42.7	44.2	-1.5
Ray Stone	7	22.1	21.6	23.1	-1.5
Mawene Hiroti	14	27.3	25.0	26.4	-1.5
Charlie Staines	20	23.0	22.5	23.9	-1.5
Brandon Wakeham	8	32.0	29.3	30.8	-1.4
Ryan Matterson	16	52.3	53.4	54.8	-1.4
Sauaso Sue	22	25.0	24.8	26.3	-1.4
Ben Hunt	15	57.2	52.8	54.2	-1.4
Corey Allan	18	22.1	21.0	22.4	-1.4
Justin Olam	23	37.9	35.7	37.1	-1.4
Tom Opacic	21	34.4	32.3	33.7	-1.4
Toafofoa Sipley	20	25.2	23.8	25.2	-1.4
Jack Bird	22	43.6	41.6	43.0	-1.4
Matt Doorey	13	21.2	20.8	22.2	-1.4
Tyrell Fuimaono	17	30.8	30.6	32.0	-1.4
Keenan Palasia	9	31.7	32.1	33.4	-1.4
Chris Lewis	20	24.9	24.5	25.9	-1.3
Phillip Sami	17	32.5	31.4	32.7	-1.3
Alex Seyfarth	12	27.6	27.5	28.7	-1.3
Oregon Kaufusi	21	26.6	26.5	27.8	-1.3
Sean Keppie	17	30.9	31.0	32.3	-1.3
Eliesa Katoa	18	33.1	32.9	34.2	-1.3
Jack Hetherington	17	33.2	32.8	34.1	-1.3
Poasa Faamausili	11	21.1	20.6	21.8	-1.3
Jesse Bromwich	22	32.8	33.3	34.5	-1.2
Daniel Tupou	24	36.6	36.1	37.3	-1.2
Ben Condon	11	25.4	25.2	26.4	-1.2
Viliame Kikau	23	45.7	44.3	45.5	-1.2
andrew Fifita	6	20.0	18.1	19.3	-1.2
Siliva Havili	11	21.5	21.5	22.7	-1.2
Corey Harawira-Naera	15	51.3	50.2	51.4	-1.2
David Mead	12	24.5	24.4	25.5	-1.2
Nick Cotric	14	31.7	28.5	29.6	-1.1
Joe Ofahengaue	23	36.7	36.6	37.7	-1.1
Shawn Blore	13	27.5	27.6	28.7	-1.1
Jarrod Croker	12	22.7	22.4	23.4	-1.0
Tommy Talau	22	23.5	22.7	23.7	-1.0
Hame Sele	7	30.0	29.5	30.5	-1.0
Jarrod Wallace	24	38.8	39.1	40.2	-1.0
Rocco Berry	8	27.8	27.8	28.7	-1.0
Jeremiah Nanai	4	27.8	27.1	28.1	-1.0
Waqa Blake	15	35.5	33.6	34.5	-1.0
Jarome Luai	21	38.9	37.3	38.2	-1.0
Thomas Mikaele	19	30.4	30.6	31.6	-0.9
Taane Milne	12	30.4	29.7	30.6	-0.9
Josh Kerr	20	37.3	37.8	38.7	-0.9
Harley Smith-Shields	7	36.4	32.9	33.7	-0.9
Hymel Hunt	16	26.3	25.8	26.6	-0.8
Liam Knight	11	29.0	28.8	29.6	-0.8
andrew Davey	2	21.0	18.5	19.3	-0.8
Corey Horsburgh	10	37.7	38.8	39.5	-0.8
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak	18	36.5	34.8	35.5	-0.7
Taniela Paseka	21	32.7	33.2	33.9	-0.7
Thomas Flegler	20	35.3	35.5	36.1	-0.7
Jack Gosiewski	6	20.3	21.3	22.0	-0.7
Patrick Herbert	19	32.9	30.7	31.4	-0.7
Bryce Cartwright	17	31.6	32.0	32.7	-0.7
Peta Hiku	10	29.5	29.0	29.6	-0.6
Robert Jennings	3	21.3	18.7	19.3	-0.6
Chris Patolo	6	24.2	23.5	24.1	-0.6
Junior Paulo	21	44.0	45.1	45.7	-0.6
Jayden Okunbor	7	30.1	29.7	30.3	-0.6
Jed Cartwright	4	18.8	18.8	19.3	-0.5
Jesse Arthars	11	23.1	22.9	23.4	-0.5
Jesse Ramien	17	49.2	46.0	46.4	-0.4
Billy Smith	3	27.3	23.7	24.1	-0.4
Rhys Kennedy	16	31.0	31.8	32.1	-0.4
Matt Frawley	5	31.8	27.8	28.1	-0.3
Tanah Boyd	6	32.2	29.6	29.7	-0.1
Michael Chee-Kam	9	28.6	28.7	28.7	-0.1
Sam Lisone	15	19.9	19.2	19.3	-0.1
Christian Welch	19	45.1	47.2	47.2	0.0
Jock Madden	3	25.3	21.7	21.7	0.0

RFM severly underpriced if he makes full recovery from injury. Is he a starter in new look Bulldogs?

This is from Facebook about the Knights. No idea on reliability

“Newcastle Knights have confirmed that Chris Randall will replace Jayden Brailey for 2022. They’ve also indicated that Pheonix Crossland will be the bench utility as he can provide cover at hooker and they think he’s big enough to turn him into a ball playing lock. Kurt Mann will play lock and Adam Clune will win the race to partner Jake Clifford in the halves. The Knights still want Luke Brooks but the Tigers refuse to release him under any circumstance.”