NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 92 - Fanatics Anonymous Off Season

Welshy wrote:RFM severly underpriced if he makes full recovery from injury. Is he a starter in new look Bulldogs?

Milchcow wrote:

My 2 minutes of research suggests Hetherington and TPJ may be the edge players

So I guess RFM comes in round 2 after Hetherington gets suspended

Jumping Marlin wrote:@milchcow  = legend!

Milchcow wrote:This is from Facebook about the Knights. No idea on reliability

“Newcastle Knights have confirmed that Chris Randall will replace Jayden Brailey for 2022. They’ve also indicated that Pheonix Crossland will be the bench utility as he can provide cover at hooker and they think he’s big enough to turn him into a ball playing lock. Kurt Mann will play lock and Adam Clune will win the race to partner Jake Clifford in the halves. The Knights still want Luke Brooks but the Tigers refuse to release him under any circumstance.”

Milchcow wrote:This is from Facebook about the Knights. No idea on reliability

“Newcastle Knights have confirmed that Chris Randall will replace Jayden Brailey for 2022. They’ve also indicated that Pheonix Crossland will be the bench utility as he can provide cover at hooker and they think he’s big enough to turn him into a ball playing lock. Kurt Mann will play lock and Adam Clune will win the race to partner Jake Clifford in the halves. The Knights still want Luke Brooks but the Tigers refuse to release him under any circumstance.”

Lchy wrote:

This seems like the perfect outcome for Fantasy coaches, so its making me sceptical

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Full credit to the Milchcow. There is some noise that Hodgson may play for the Knights for a year before heading to the Eels https://www.seriousaboutrl.com/josh-hodgson-linked-with-stunning-one-year-deal-47790/

Milchcow wrote:Some of this pricing really is bizarre

Jackson Topine has been overpriced by  almost 14 points based on 2021 scoring
He is not a big offloader, tackle breaker or kicker, so unless he escapes from the in goal a lot, I have no idea how they came up with his price this year

Annoyingly, there are many players massively overpriced in scoring, but hardly any underpriced.

Jumping Marlin wrote:@milchcow  = legend!

Holy Moly wrote:
Agreed

Milchcow wrote:Got some analysis done around the new scoring system

For the stats I am about to post here is how I generated them.

Reducing TBs and Kick Meters is straight forward from last years stats

Have added in ruck infringements and inside 10 based on last years stats. With the rule change that these will now be penalties 40m from the line, more of these may be penalties (or not given at all, depending on how much Phil Gould whinges in public about the amount of penalties being blown)

I have awarded 3.5 points per offload. Based on Supercoach stats, about 82% of offloads are effective, with the rest ineffective. If Fantasy scores similarly then 3.5 points slightly underscores offloading.
I have applied 3.5 across the board though - there is no attempt to distinguish which players are better offloaders than others

I have made no attempt to cater for escape from in goal points.

Mulvy wrote:

I started looking at this today would you believe. I knew I should have saved myself the trouble. As you say TBs and OFs are easy. I guessed 80% of OFs are effective (not far off) and like you ignored the ingoal escape thing, but also ignored the ruck infringements because = lazy and figured it affects everyone anyway. Main difference is I was working through players individually with my abacus and slide rule. Your method is better...

Milchcow wrote:

The worst thing about collecting the ruck infringements was slight name differences between my normal fantasy stats and from nrl.com

Spent ages converting Talatau Amone to Junior Amone, Ben Marschke to Benjamin Marschke etc  took ages

Jumping Marlin wrote:
Some weird ones for sure.
I assume magic number will adjust such that, all else being equal, the average of under & over priced players will be the same?

Milchcow wrote:This is from Facebook about the Knights. No idea on reliability

“Newcastle Knights have confirmed that Chris Randall will replace Jayden Brailey for 2022. They’ve also indicated that Pheonix Crossland will be the bench utility as he can provide cover at hooker and they think he’s big enough to turn him into a ball playing lock. Kurt Mann will play lock and Adam Clune will win the race to partner Jake Clifford in the halves. The Knights still want Luke Brooks but the Tigers refuse to release him under any circumstance.”