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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

    Chewie
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    • Post n°441

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    Post by Chewie Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:51 pm

    sets wrote:They locked the page 51 party thread..... im shattered

    Yeah it had gone past it's expiry date...
    I guess we'll just need to wait
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    Talfal
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    • Post n°442

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    Post by Talfal Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:03 pm

    Moanaman wrote:@talfal I demand your Cam Mcinnes avatar returns immediately!
    I wish I could but it’s saved on my computer which isn’t able to turn on at the moment! I’m not sure how I would upload it without having the photo saved on my phone ! (I’m a concreter so my compooter/phone skills are less then the average fella)

    Edit: I made a temporary one in the mean time Beating Heart
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    Cookie Monster
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    • Post n°443

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    Post by Cookie Monster Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:40 pm

    Talfal wrote:
    I wish I could but it’s saved on my computer which isn’t able to turn on at the moment! I’m not sure how I would upload it without having the photo saved on my phone ! (I’m a concreter so my compooter/phone skills are less then the average fella)

    Edit: I made a temporary one in the mean time Beating Heart


    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets - Page 23 Mcinne10


    Nah  Nah  Not Good Enough:
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    filthridden
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    • Post n°444

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    Post by filthridden Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:12 pm

    Cookie Monster wrote:


    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets - Page 23 Mcinne10


    Nah  Nah  Not Good Enough:

    Just makes me thinki of "Naah, nah it's not funneh! I've got schooool!"
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    FalconSloth
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    • Post n°445

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    Post by FalconSloth Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:22 pm

    I have opened the thread for NRLFF Survivor Season 2 which I will be running. If you want to play this year please check out the thread and note your interest
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    Rabbits21
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    • Post n°446

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    Post by Rabbits21 Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:43 pm

    The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:That seems to be the call at the moment. Maybe Rabbits 21 has some inside info. Regardless of the bench, Where do you think Murray will play AND will it be closer to 80 than 60?
    I think Murray will play around 70mins if the game is close but in games if we are winning he might be managed and just play 55-60mins. If he was DPP I’d be more keen.

    I read an article today that Ta’affe doesn’t want the 7 he sees his best position as FB and once Trell is back he’s happy to either play 14 or keep growing in reserve grade and learning.

    I’ll have Ilias but I don’t know how well he scores I think he will have a basic role but at 300k it’s low risk.
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    Mulvy
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    • Post n°447

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    Post by Mulvy Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:30 pm

    FalconSloth wrote:I have opened the thread for NRLFF Survivor Season 2 which I will be running. If you want to play this year please check out the thread and note your interest

    Well done Sloth! I won't be able to this year (bit of a work crisis) but it was a blast last time and I'm sure you'll do a great job and I highly recommend people give it a try. Go on kents, you know you want to! Trophy
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    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:15 pm

    Anyone seen the photo of Fifita at Titans training on their site geez he’s looks bigger and fitter than ever. Apparently his first pre season in a few years without any injury concerns.

    I may have to do a draft trying to fit him in.
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    Honey Badger
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    • Post n°449

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    Post by Honey Badger Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:34 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:Anyone seen the photo of Fifita at Titans training on their site geez he’s looks bigger and fitter than ever. Apparently his first pre season in a few years without any injury concerns.

    I may have to do a draft trying to fit him in.

    He'll prob have a monster game in the All Stars too
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    Camo123
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    • Post n°450

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    Post by Camo123 Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:27 am

    Saw something interesting on the Fantasy amateurs Facebook group about rotating cheap WFBs based on fixtures (away lowercase)

    Broncos (Pereira) & Rabbitohs (Paulo): broncos, dogs, COWBOYS, warriors, DRAGONS, DOGS, DOGS/tigers, SHARKS, BRONCOS, warriors, knights/RAIDERS, TITANS/TIGERS

    Works also well with Coates and Pereira and also Paulo/Dunster

    Thoughts, is a bit of an FPL-lite strategy, feel like it could work well given there is a pretty well defined top 6 teams and worse rest of pack

    Pros: Avoid harder teams, potential for more attacking stats. Rolling lockout makes it more manageable
    Cons: Pereira is not guaranteed a spot (although Walters is talking him up), wingers could still score well with random try against top teams with TBs
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    robelgordo
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    • Post n°451

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    Post by robelgordo Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:10 am

    I’m still not convinced there’s a significant correlation between fantasy scores and fixtures.
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    rhinoceroo
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    • Post n°452

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    Post by rhinoceroo Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:31 am

    robelgordo wrote:I’m still not convinced there’s a significant correlation between fantasy scores and fixtures.

    There can't really not be for backs and goalkickers. Likelihood of more tries and more breaks and more goals equals more fantasy points. For forwards and field kickers it probably evens out.
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    robelgordo
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    • Post n°453

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    Post by robelgordo Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:46 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    There can't really not be for backs and goalkickers. Likelihood of more tries and more breaks and more goals equals more fantasy points. For forwards and field kickers it probably evens out.

    Yeah there’s probably a slight correlation for outside backs and kickers, but in the short run (a season) I think it’ll be weak and making squad selections on that basis is a terrible strategy

    I don’t have the time to run a proper analysis, but just eyeballing this specific pair:

    Pereira has scored pretty consistently across all games in his career

    His 2 80 min games under 20 are vs Roosters and Sea Eagles. Roosters makes sense but that’s 2020 Manly who the Dragons smashed 34-4

    His 2 50+ scores are against Eels and Rabbitohs, good teams

    For Jaxson Paulo, his 4 best scores in a limited sample are vs Roosters and Eels x 3. His worst scores are plentiful and against a range of opponents - 2 sub 20s vs Titan and Raiders, sub-20 vs Storm, Cowboys, Roosters, etc

    His last 4 regular season matches are 49 v Eels, 9 v Titans, 59 v Roosters, 25 v Dragons. If you were playing fixtures then you’d get his worst scores and miss his best

    But then he’s also likely moving to CTR which renders all those stats useless.


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    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:08 am

    Camo123 wrote:Saw something interesting on the Fantasy amateurs Facebook group about rotating cheap WFBs based on fixtures (away lowercase)

    Broncos (Pereira) & Rabbitohs (Paulo): broncos, dogs, COWBOYS, warriors, DRAGONS, DOGS, DOGS/tigers, SHARKS, BRONCOS, warriors, knights/RAIDERS, TITANS/TIGERS

    Works also well with Coates and Pereira and also Paulo/Dunster

    Thoughts, is a bit of an FPL-lite strategy, feel like it could work well given there is a pretty well defined top 6 teams and worse rest of pack

    Pros: Avoid harder teams, potential for more attacking stats. Rolling lockout makes it more manageable
    Cons: Pereira is not guaranteed a spot (although Walters is talking him up), wingers could still score well with random try against top teams with TBs

    Its an interesting thought. Probably wouldn't want to care past 6 weeks of draw a after that injuries/trades will mean its unlikely to remain a decision you have to make.
    I think the biggest difference between EPL and NRL is that cash generation is much more important in NRL. So you still want the guys outside your 17 to score well every week. If they only get a decent score every 3 weeks when you play them against weak opposition they probably won't make enough cash.


    But lets just say you go with Coates and Pereira.
    Round 1 Coates gets 45 against the Tigers and Pereira gets 18 against Souths.
    How many people are then going to drop Coates for round 2 (against Souths) and player Pereira (against dogs) instead?

    If you aren't prepared to drop the player who just got a higher score, you'd be better off just picking the guys who will score more points.

    I will probably just pick the 2 guys who I think will score the most total points, even if it means they both have off weeks at the same time.
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    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:46 am

    Isn't there a saying that goes "Form over Fixture"?
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    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:13 am

    Chewie wrote:Isn't there a saying that goes "Form over Fixture"?

    They also say form is temporary, class is permanent.

    Normally these sayings only come out after we've seen the scores, suggesting hindsight is the best method for selecting a team
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    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:45 am

    NAS at storrm HQ today. Storm to release a statement shortly apparently.

    Only pic I've seen he's not wearing a mask properly.

    I'm hoping it's another Djokovic.

    "Welcome, welcome, please come in... Oh you're still notnvaxxe! Right. Fuck off then."
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    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Feb 03, 2022 11:23 am

    Chewie wrote:Isn't there a saying that goes "Form over Fixture"?

    I think they normally say "fixtures over form" for Fantasy EPL but it's a very different game.

    For NRL and how it is scored, I just don't see it. In theory wingers should score more tries and therefore more fantasy points against weaker teams, but not sure it actually works.
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    easytiger
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    • Post n°459

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    Post by easytiger Thu Feb 03, 2022 11:44 am

    Camo123 wrote:Saw something interesting on the Fantasy amateurs Facebook group about rotating cheap WFBs based on fixtures (away lowercase)

    Broncos (Pereira) & Rabbitohs (Paulo): broncos, dogs, COWBOYS, warriors, DRAGONS, DOGS, DOGS/tigers, SHARKS, BRONCOS, warriors, knights/RAIDERS, TITANS/TIGERS

    Works also well with Coates and Pereira and also Paulo/Dunster

    Thoughts, is a bit of an FPL-lite strategy, feel like it could work well given there is a pretty well defined top 6 teams and worse rest of pack

    Pros: Avoid harder teams, potential for more attacking stats. Rolling lockout makes it more manageable
    Cons: Pereira is not guaranteed a spot (although Walters is talking him up), wingers could still score well with random try against top teams with TBs

    It's a cute idea at best IMO.
    It's likely a bad strategy if you angle your starting lineup selections to enable it.

    If you have decided that they are the best players for your 21 anyway, then it could have some small merit.
    I think there's probably some small statistical benefit, but only if you maintain it as a consistent strategy over a decent period.
    If it's just 6 or 7 matches then it could just as easily drop you a few overall points.

    Overall it seems like an unnecessary Rollercoaster for not a lot of benefit. Dropping outside backs for fixtures against the Storm and Panthers is often worth it however.
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    Post by Guest Thu Feb 03, 2022 12:04 pm

    imo the fixture based selection theory doesn't work in league & it doesn't work out e.g. J. Pereira lw outside farnworth & cobbo rw outside staggs...i would say the right edge will see more attacking ball than the left edge as staggs is the go to on atttack & he likes setting up his wingers.
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