NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 1 - Just open up already

rhinoceroo wrote:

Hopggod if he's named lock, Hetherington if he's named edge.

Cheers. Slim pickings. ATM I have Gilbert in 14-17 but even he is no certainty of being in the run on side. I'm trying to make up a decent bench that provides cover and has money making potential.

Genderbender wrote:


8th and 10th best scoring halves in the game last season playing in the same team as last year and in the same position as last year…. I haven’t considered either and still won’t.

Sometimes the full season average doesn’t tell the whole story

May also be a chance Burton doesn’t play Origin this year if all of Wighton/Latrell/Turbo/SCrichton are fit

Genderbender wrote:


Don’t see the value in him priced at 37ish, even playing the full 80. I rate Mahoney leaps and bounds ahead of Hodgson currently with age and health obviously and he only averaged 46 last season in that team. Can’t see Hodgo doing better this year than Mahoney did last year.

2021 Average of 49.

Mahoney and Hodgson score points at HOK in remarkably similar ways.

You hit to nail on the head... Experienced HOK with a 12 point discount and a solid pack around him. What more value do you need? Mahoney costs an extra 160k

Camo123 wrote:

Sometimes the full season average doesn’t tell the whole story

May also be a chance Burton doesn’t play Origin this year if all of Wighton/Latrell/Turbo/SCrichton are fit

Agreed full season averages can be misleading, Burtons overall sample size is quite large though so don’t know what other metric you’d predict a season average with other than his season average. As for the other guy, the only way his team will get better is if his fantasy scores go down. It will be interesting to see if IRL his coaches see this and tell him to pass the bloody ball! No point having 3-4 players running outside you if they aren’t going to get passed to. He may continue to play his own game and have a relatively good year for fantasy owners or he may be told by the new coaching staff that they’d like to win some games this year which will require him to stop ball hogging. Either or, I’ll be starting with Hynes and Clearly.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

2021 Average of 49.

Mahoney and Hodgson score points at HOK in remarkably similar ways.

You hit to nail on the head... Experienced HOK with a 12 point discount and a solid pack around him. What more value do you need? Mahoney costs an extra 160k

Not the best at math but Mahoney averaged 46 last season in that team while Hodgson is priced at 37, pretty sure that’s 9 points. As I’ve said too, I don’t see Hodgson come close to matching Mahoney, wish him nothing but the best this year but at such an awkward price point and with his age and injury history I don’t see the upside. Good luck to anyone who takes the plunge.

Genderbender wrote:


8th and 10th best scoring halves in the game last season playing in the same team as last year and in the same position as last year…. I haven’t considered either and still won’t.

Douehi average scores outside halves in 2022 - 20; in the halves - 62 (rank 3 after Cleary and Hynes).
Average in halves in 2021 - 61 (14 games)

Not sure how anyone can see him as anything other than a consistent performer at 6 and heavily discounted this season.

mattnz wrote:
Douehi average scores outside halves last season - 20; in the halves - 62 (rank 3 after Cleary and Hynes).

Yes he had those games outside of the halves because he’s not a good one IRL. He will get his chance this year potentially for the whole year with Hastings (who was their best half) gone so could be good for fantasy coaches. And maybe there’s a chance the coaching staff will allow the same style of play as they did last year and aim for 16th (which this year won’t be the wooden spoon). Like I said, each to their own but I’ll be staying away from ifs and buts and maybes at that price point and going Hynes and Cleary.

Hynes and Cleary for me too and a sneaky Cook.

Holy Moly wrote:Hynes and Cleary for me too and  a sneaky Cook.

yeah looking to go heavy with the Uber guns potentially.

Just made a team with Cleary Hynes and Murray.

Does hurt the balance of the squad though.

For example I can run with Teddy Gilbert or Hynes CNK.

Is anyone tempted to not start with Cleary or Hynes but go with Murray and put the C on him? Alternative could be go with Hastings and Burton/Douiehi in the halves.

Also Wilton I’m looking at priced at 37 has a 49.9 avg when starting second row. Could be a good POD. I think W. Graham might play a bench role of limited mins as a floater.

Rabbits21 wrote:Is anyone tempted to not start with Cleary or Hynes but go with Murray and put the C on him? Alternative could be go with Hastings and Burton/Douiehi in the halves.

Also Wilton I’m looking at priced at 37 has a 49.9 avg when starting second row. Could be a good POD. I think W. Graham might play a bench role of limited mins as a floater.

I think we’re all tempted buddy you can make an awesome well rounded team even buy cutting one of them. But then you think of the fact of what Cleary is capable of and potentially undervalued and look at that 132 poster of a delightfully looking Hynes when you log into this forum, you think about that captain spot and how painful it could be getting out scored by 50 a week…… so you put them back in and know that you’ve got the two best captain options week in and week out and try make a better looking team with them in. And yeah I’ve looked at Wilton as well but as Matt nz was saying probably too much other value options in that position this year. I do think he’s undervalued though.

Rabbits21 wrote:Is anyone tempted to not start with Cleary or Hynes but go with Murray and put the C on him? Alternative could be go with Hastings and Burton/Douiehi in the halves.

Also Wilton I’m looking at priced at 37 has a 49.9 avg when starting second row. Could be a good POD. I think W. Graham might play a bench role of limited mins as a floater.

Would have to be certain Wilton is playing 80 if you were going to buy

In games under 70 mins at EDG (smaller sample around 66 mins) he only averages 38

rhinoceroo wrote:

I thought it was 14300. Not sure. Where's the Cow when you need him?

I think you are the most correct Rhinoceroo
It seems that the vast majority of players are a pretty exact match to a 14,300 magic number when put against their 2022 average.

Then there are the outlier players that have been manually adjusted for "reasons"

I think Milch's MN of 14,491 is presumably the average across the whole player database when including those adjustments.

I personally think it's more balanced to work off that 14,300 number while realising that some players have extra tariffs (e.g. Turbo with a $100k tariff chucked on him).

Genderbender wrote:


Not the best at math but Mahoney averaged 46 last season in that team while Hodgson is priced at 37, pretty sure that’s 9 points. As I’ve said too, I don’t see Hodgson come close to matching Mahoney, wish him nothing but the best this year but at such an awkward price point and with his age and injury history I don’t see the upside. Good luck to anyone who takes the plunge.

What has Mahoney's scoring got to do with what Hodgson will score apart from your subjective assertion to Mahoney is a better player? By that rationale Mahoney is tipped for an increase from 46 to 47 (Marshall King's average last year) Please form an orderly queue when bringing him in to your side

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

What has Mahoney's scoring got to do with what Hodgson will score apart from your subjective assertion to Mahoney is a better player? By that rationale Mahoney is tipped for an increase from 46 to 47 (Marshall King's average last year) Please form an orderly queue when bringing him in to your side

Fyi JMK the new macca

Rabbits21 wrote:Is anyone tempted to not start with Cleary or Hynes but go with Murray and put the C on him? Alternative could be go with Hastings and Burton/Douiehi in the halves.

Also Wilton I’m looking at priced at 37 has a 49.9 avg when starting second row. Could be a good POD. I think W. Graham might play a bench role of limited mins as a floater.

I think not starting with Cleary/Hynes is a really interesting short-term play.
The problem for me is that Murray has had one season for a 60 average in a role where 60 averages are pretty uncommon.
Then add in his slight head knock injury giving him a 1 min game last year and 16 min game in 2021 - if that happened while everyone else has the C on Cleary/Hynes - it'd put you a long long way behind.

I recall back in '19 when Taumalolo was considered a fringe Captaincy alternative (a bit like Murray this year) and he started with a solid 75, but followed it in Round 2 with a 17 in 34 minutes, out for 6 weeks...
The people who went that way, were instantly a good chunk behind the pack and then there's that risk of over-trading/high-risk trading to try to make your way back...



That being said, if there was a clear candidate that could get within say 10 points of Cleary/Hynes and didn't have an early bye, then it's interesting to have that extra match advantage in the first 6 rounds...

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

What has Mahoney's scoring got to do with what Hodgson will score apart from your subjective assertion to Mahoney is a better player? By that rationale Mahoney is tipped for an increase from 46 to 47 (Marshall King's average last year) Please form an orderly queue when bringing him in to your side

Sorry for not being clear, but my assertion of Mahoney being a better hooker is part of it. I try to look at what system they’re playing in as well. I do think that has a lot to do with it. So looking at what I perceive as a lesser quality hooker (given his age and injury history) in the same system as Mahoney who to me personally (each to their own) is far better and averaged 46 there last season, I wouldn’t think Hodgson would outdo this. It’s just an opinion and absolutely subjective.

Side note I do think Mahoney will finish with a higher average this year as well based on my same thought process.

Rabbits21 wrote:Is anyone tempted to not start with Cleary or Hynes but go with Murray and put the C on him? Alternative could be go with Hastings and Burton/Douiehi in the halves.

Also Wilton I’m looking at priced at 37 has a 49.9 avg when starting second row. Could be a good POD. I think W. Graham might play a bench role of limited mins as a floater.

My current draft has Cleary and Murray with Doueihi as my other half and Hastings bench.

easytiger wrote:

I think not starting with Cleary/Hynes is a really interesting short-term play.
The problem for me is that Murray has had one season for a 60 average in a role where 60 averages are pretty uncommon.
Then add in his slight head knock injury giving him a 1 min game last year and 16 min game in 2021 - if that happened while everyone else has the C on Cleary/Hynes - it'd put you a long long way behind.

I recall back in '19 when Taumalolo was considered a fringe Captaincy alternative (a bit like Murray this year) and he started with a solid 75, but followed it in Round 2 with a 17 in 34 minutes, out for 6 weeks...
The people who went that way, were instantly a good chunk behind the pack and then there's that risk of over-trading/high-risk trading to try to make your way back...



That being said, if there was a clear candidate that could get within say 10 points of Cleary/Hynes and didn't have an early bye, then it's interesting to have that extra match advantage in the first 6 rounds...

Murray can definitely get within 10 points of Cleary and Hynes and has no byes until Origin period, but in my case I'm starting both him and Cleary so I at least have one of the halves.

Rabbits21 wrote:Is anyone tempted to not start with Cleary or Hynes but go with Murray and put the C on him? Alternative could be go with Hastings and Burton/Douiehi in the halves.

Also Wilton I’m looking at priced at 37 has a 49.9 avg when starting second row. Could be a good POD. I think W. Graham might play a bench role of limited mins as a floater.

If i dont start with Cleary the plan would be to start with the potential Gun halves pairing of Burton and Doueihi with Hastings on the bench and look to upgrade one to Cleary after his rd 3 bye.
Id have to keep some cash in the bank and find a captain for the first 3 rounds