NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 4 - It's go time !

Bethany_B wrote:

Muz would not have benefited from 2021 Vlandysball in the way that the other two did though.

In 2022 Cleary didn't reach the ton (Three 80+ scores - 85, 85, 93), and neither did Murray (Four 80+ scores - 80, 81, 84, 94). Hynes got one ton (the 132) and an additional five 80+ scores (80, 83, 84, 89, 89).

If anything by that logic Hynes is the best one to captain, but I think he will regress a tiny bit (he will still easily be a top 2 half though)

That said, I have both Cleary and Murray and will be captaining Cleary most weeks, but I don't think the ceilings are as different as you think.

Camo123 wrote:

Everyone still high on Perham after shit trial performance?

Can’t make much of trials usually for established players, but kinda have to for limited sample in NRL players (has 33 average in NSW cup across 4 years which is 10pt value but can it be maintained)

Aardvark Ratnick wrote:

I am no first grade coach but from the little I,ve seen I would be a tad worried with him out the back.

Honey Badger wrote:

Id rather Preston over guys like Stone, Blore and maybe Moale

filthridden wrote:How many are gonna jump on Starling when he's named #9 with no bench hooker?

Mulvy wrote:Murray has a ceiling of one score in the 90's. Cleary has a ceiling of nine banners including a PB of 144. Hynes has a ceiling of two banners despite having only one season in current role.

Murray is a VC at best.

filthridden wrote:How many are gonna jump on Starling when he's named #9 with no bench hooker?

robelgordo wrote:

Is that a thing that is likely to happen?

Milchcow wrote:
Obviously the bookies (or enough people that bet with them) think there is something to this Jesse McLean rumour

He's now paying $7 to be Penrith's top tryscorer this year. Still behind Turuva at $3 (and To'o at $1.91), but yesterday he was nowhere

Camo123 wrote:

Everyone still high on Perham after shit trial performance?

Can’t make much of trials usually for established players, but kinda have to for limited sample in NRL players (has 33 average in NSW cup across 4 years which is 10pt value but can it be maintained)

filthridden wrote:How many are gonna jump on Starling when he's named #9 with no bench hooker?

Milchcow wrote:

Not Perham specifically, but lets assume everyone is running with a lot of cheap WFB/CTR. These are the options sub $300k that I find most interesting

Paul Alamoti CTR $230k
Perhaps the best of the cheap backs. Base price, reasonable job security and has a game that looks good for Fantasy. I assume everyone will have him, either starting or in NPR

Tommy Talau CTR/WFB $250k
Unsure job security, but looks to be at least starting the year at centre. Has a history of solid mid30s average mixed in with some single digit shockers. DPP sees him as a reasonably popular NPR

Alofiana Khan-Pereira WFB $230k
Scores a lot of tries, but that seems to be it. Will find it harder scoring them for the Titans than for Burleigh. Averaged 30 in QCUP despite scoring 25 tries in 20 games. Not great fantasy prospects, but he's cheap and looks to be starting.

Jesse Mclean CTR/WFB $230k
Rumours he'll replace Taylan May ahead of Turuva. Panthers winger so tries are expected. But he's young and has barely played against adults before, so who knows what to expect, if he does get a start. COuld be another Taylan May, or couldbe a Charlie Staines.

Hayze Perham WFB $298k
Mostly played centre or winger in the past, but gets first crack at Bulldogs fullback. Not inspiring in the trials, so people will be concerned he may get dropped if he has a few bad performances., Played a bit of fullback in NSW Cup where his stats werne't the best. Priced at 21, so doesn't have to be awesome to provide value, which is a good thing for potential owners

Tyrell Sloan WFB $250k
Dragons fullback, bye in round 1 s he'd be your round 1 loop. Fullback average is 33 , well above his priced average of 17. Bit of rocks and diamonds with a few low 80 minute scores. Has a high try scoring rate (7 in 9 games at fullback) which you would want to continue. I'd rate him higher than Perham - cheaper and with better job security

Will Warbrick $230k WFB
Looking at starting on the wing for the Storm. They have a few other options so not a guaranteed spot, but fantasy wise he's the one we want to see on TLT. Averaged 38 fantasy points in QCUp last year, surely a 30+ is possible in the NRL
Just need to hope he can secure a spot

Harley Smith-Shields $250k CTR
Priced at 17 he averages 36 in first grade on the wing (7 games) Injuries mean he's a real chance to start the season. Not really in first choice 17 though so job security is a concern.[/b][/b]


There's also a few other cheapish guys in the next price bracket that may also be worthwhile (eg Te Maire Martin, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Lachlan Miller, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow)

Moanaman wrote:You dont think Sean Russell will be starting for the Eels?

mintotheimmortal wrote:

Great post Mr Cow, I wouldn't say Sloan has better JS than Perham though. Ciraldo is locked in with Perham and is a big fan of his. Sloan however, was dropped after 2 games at FB last year and hasn't shown anything yet to tell me Hook wont do it again. Just my opinion though and could be wrong but I think the upside with Perham is much larger

Milchcow wrote:

I could indeed be wrong about the relative job security of the 2.
I just got the feeling Perham was on slightly shaky ground - that could be fan sentiment and not anything from the coaching staff.

Also in your favour. Ciraldo probably has the better job security of the 2 coaches, and is more likely to stick with a long term plan. Hook may feel th eneed to shake things up if the Dragons don't start well.

Neither fill me with supreme confidence, but suspect I'll run with at least 1 of them for price reasons.