2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 13

Sik wrote:@m0nty...

What the? It was a genuine question.

All im doing is asking a question, if you dont want to answer it, DONT!

I was answering genuinely. Don't trade out players unless you have to. Don't chase last week's scores.

Wait for Rochow and Evans, they're not losing money so you can afford to hold.

Trading out JNiko is just bloody stupid, his BE this week is zero and it probably will be next week too, and he's scoring 30+.

Taylor... well, at least wait for him to play today before consigning him to the knackery! Geez!

Can someone explain BE to me. Sorry for the newbie question.

I know it means Break Even, but how is it calculated etc...

Sik wrote:Can someone explain BE to me. Sorry for the newbie question.

I know it means Break Even, but how is it calculated etc...

The break even determines price rises/drops. Exceed the b/e & price will increase & vice versa.

Sik wrote:I think Aubbs is worth sticking with as well... 35-40 isnt a bad score for a CTR

I am sticking with him, just disappointed........usual with falling for the trap

Sik wrote:Thanks Beast...

just don't go looking for things wrong just to trade. in this game you can't get all the cash cows, you can't get all the mid pricers who are scoring at that next level and you can't have all the guns. important thing at the start of the year is to work with your squad so you have the best mix of scorers and cashies going into the bye season and then setting you up for your run in home. you don't want to get to the point where you have too many cash earners and not enough scorers as you may be too behind the 8-ball when you start trading for guns. On the same token you don't want to have too many scorers and not enough cash earners at the start or you will find it hard to get the cash to get in your last few guns

I didn't really answer your question Sik.

Sik wrote:@m0nty...

What the? It was a genuine question.

All im doing is asking a question, if you dont want to answer it, DONT!

I think Monty is having a joke, the trades look very sideways though. I can see why you want to pick up Walker, but Taylor has only played 1 game and J. Nikorima while not making money as fast as Walker is still making you money and putting up solid scores. The trades just appears to be somewhat sideways and more of a trade just for the sake of trading.

There is nothing wrong with the trade as Walker will make you money quicker than both guys it appears, but overall I expect Nikorima and Taylor to end up making close to or as much as Walker. (With that said I have all 3.)

So for example JNik average is 34 - which would make his value $250k? So if he continues to score at 34, his price will continue to grow until it hits $250k?

Is that right?

m0nty (FanLeague) wrote:

I was answering genuinely. Don't trade out players unless you have to. Don't chase last week's scores.

Wait for Rochow and Evans, they're not losing money so you can afford to hold.

Trading out JNiko is just bloody stupid, his BE this week is zero and it probably will be next week too, and he's scoring 30+.

Taylor... well, at least wait for him to play today before consigning him to the knackery! Geez!

Yeah I was gonna say that Taylor is on my list of possible trade outs (for Garvey) but I'm certainly gonna wait until I see him play lol!

Sik wrote:So for example JNik average is 34 - which would make his value $250k? So if he continues to score at 34, his price will continue to grow until it hits $250k?

Is that right?

Roughly, the price value changes somewhat throughout the season. But keep in mind if Nikorima has a big game it can bump up his price as well.

Sik wrote:Can someone explain BE to me. Sorry for the newbie question.

I know it means Break Even, but how is it calculated etc...

I'm not too clued up on the intricacies but I believe it uses your last 5 scores as a sense of a form guide for your player and prices them out using what they call the magic number. So the effect of the 5 round scores means that up until week 6, Fensom will have his big first round score in his 5 round average so that can help to weigh out his -1 from this week. But once you get to round 7 BE's, he will lose it but will still have a -1 weighing his average down a fair bit so would still be likely to drop.

But like I said I'm not the best guy to answer questions like this. I would recommend waiting till Tuesday when the Team Lists come out when the forum will have a lot of traffic as there would more chance someone like Milchy or the other stat guys on here will be around to answer it

Sik wrote:Can someone explain BE to me. Sorry for the newbie question.

I know it means Break Even, but how is it calculated etc...

I'm starting to get the hang of BE's from looking at the BE list at the start of this thread (or last one?) and playing with the price estimator, but if someone was to explain how it all works, it would help me as well as Sik. Thanks in advance

So if JNik value goes to say $165k after this round. Is his BE determined by what a the average of a $165k player should average. Sorry just trying to understant

mulvy wrote:

Yeah I was gonna say that Taylor is on my list of possible trade outs (for Garvey) but I'm certainly gonna wait until I see him play lol!

Same for mine but Taylor to Walker is on the cards for my team next week unless he shows me something in today's game

My biggest worry from games thus far is Bhana as a failed cow. Will be going for Whitehead this week. Leaves my reserves as Evans, Trbojevic, Whitehead and best option from Walker/Niko/Carter as 4th every week

multiple.scoregasms wrote:My biggest worry from games thus far is Bhana as a failed cow. Will be going for Whitehead this week. Leaves my reserves as Evans, Trbojevic, Whitehead and best option from Walker/Niko/Carter as 4th every week

Yep me too. Apparently he got a syndesmosis strain also.

For all those asking about BE's (Sik and Mulvy), I would recommend waiting until the forum is a bit more packed, be that game time or TLT. There are some guys on here who have a basic understanding and can give you a basic idea but if you really want to know what goes on there are certain posters (Milchy especially) who really know there stuff in regards to this and will do a much better job explaining it.

Not that anyone else doesn't know, it's just that there is always a risk you get told something slightly off

Sik wrote:So if JNik value goes to say $165k after this round. Is his BE determined by what a the average of a $165k player should average. Sorry just trying to understant

No, the way BE works is it takes into account their last 5 game scores (More favour on most recent scores) somewhat and their price. Nikorima will be closer to $170k this week. While Walker will be $190k this week.

Real quick what do you think Nikorima, Taylor and Walker will average?

Cheers, I think I'm getting anyway. eg RTS with BE of 81 means even if he got his 2015 avg of 56 he is bleeding cash, correct?

Breakevens are very complicated to understand so ill give as basic a run down as I can.

Firstly current price has very little impact on breakeven. Only things that affect breakevens are last 5 round scores and each weeks "magic number". Magic number is a ratio between total points scored by all players playing that week and total price between all players playing that week. The last 5 scores are weighted (5th most recent score having the least impact, most recent score having the most) to calculate price rises. Breakeven is as expected the score needed to have a price rise of $0. However the breakevens in fantasy coach gold or whatever it is called is based on last week's magic number, which is very unlikely to be the same again. So breakevens each week are just a guess, although the ones Milchy posts are a lot closer than fantasy coach