2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 13

Milchcow wrote:

The bit on renegades was just a couple of guys whinging about getting screwed by stat updates (which is out of the hands of Moneyball) and also Renegades trying to promote Sports Fantasy Pro as their DFS of choice.


I mean, its certainly possible that there is a bit of insider trading going on with some people getting their hands on ownership levels before comps stats. 
But with all the controversy DFS is going through in the states right now, the last thing any of the operators here would want would be to have the same thing happen in Aus. So they'd be crazy if they were knowingly allowing that to happen.

Yes but i still don't think its that meaningful. Just because you have the stats of the player selections before the game starts it isn't necessarily going to give you a big edge. Sure maybe 2% of people have picked Matt parcell for tonight game, but it doesn't mean picking him will turn into an advantage. It only turns into an advantage if he does well, which can't be predetermined. So hence me saying you could probably get a small edge in your expected outcome but you would need to do it over a large volume of games for it to come to fruition. When you are only winning $1,000 per game, it hardly becomes worth the risk and or time.

lukeaye wrote:

Yes but i still don't think its that meaningful. Just because you have the stats of the player selections before the game starts it isn't necessarily going to give you a big edge. Sure maybe 2% of people have picked Matt parcell for tonight game, but it doesn't mean picking him will turn into an advantage. It only turns into an advantage if he does well, which can't be predetermined. So hence me saying you could probably get a small edge in your expected outcome but you would need to do it over a large volume of games for it to come to fruition. When you are only winning $1,000 per game, it hardly becomes worth the risk and or time.

It's hugely meaningful. @Shanbon has posted the math in the other thread and its worth a look for anyone who's giving it a go. I doubt it's happening here yet but have no doubt it will at some point when the prize money gets higher.

Milchcow wrote:

Even the best DFS players in the states lose an awful lot of games.

Its all about getting an extra couple of percent edge and having that payout over multiple games.
The top players use scripts to enter hundreds of teams every day, an extra 5% chance of winning is massive.

If you have a choice of 2 otherwise equal players and you know one has 10% ownership and one has 60%, you'll take the 10% guy every time in a big money tournament.
but that knowledge of who is popular is meant to be a secret.
That's why it was a big deal when it was alleged to have happened in the states.

Yes I understand the importance of a 5% edge in normal statistics as it relates to financial algorithms and gambling. However, we are talking about $1,000 for 1st place in an nrl game. You would have to be entering a large number of games, and winning most of them. It such a minuscule amount of money for conducting fraud i'm not sure anyone would take the risk.

If you were talking about even a 5% edge in algorithmic trading on currencies where you can move large sums of money frequently then its a different story.

lukeaye wrote:

Im not sure this makes any sense at all.

Given you cannot know the outcome of the individual players performance's prior to the game, how could you possibly apply the use of this information to a meaningful advantage?

You might be able to build a slight edge by skewing the results in your favour using statistics about POD's ard slight price variance's but then you might be talking about an edge that is say 5%.

If that were the case, you are not certain to win every moneyball game, you would win an extra 5% which would be 55 in 100. You would have to win so many games given the small prize pool

to make this even remotely economical given the risks.

You cant just pull figures of 5% our of your arse and expect that it proves your point.

techinsider wrote:
Last week, a DraftKings employee admitted to inadvertently releasing data before the start of the third week of N.F.L. games, a move akin to insider trading in the stock market. The employee — a midlevel content manager — won $350,000 at rival site FanDuel that same week.

The incident has raised questions about who at daily fantasy companies has access to valuable data, how it is protected and whether the industry can — or wants — to police itself.

In most popular DFS leagues you pick a new team every week — in the NFL, at least — and compete against others for that week of games only. In traditional fantasy football, you might get together with friends and draft one team that you stick with and tweak throughout the season. That's the difference.

The stakes are huge.

As explained by Chris Grove at LegalSportsReport, the narrative of the alleged scandal goes like this: a DraftKings employee "inadvertently released data" about DraftKings' biggest tournament before the NFL games started, which showed "the prevalence of particular players across all submitted lineups for the contest." This is huge because to win in DFS, you need to pick players nobody else has.

$350k in a week seems pretty economical to me.

lukeaye wrote:However, we are talking about $1,000 for 1st place in an nrl game. You would have to be entering a large number of games, and winning most of them. It such a minuscule amount of money for conducting fraud i'm not sure anyone would take the risk.

You nonce, the NFL ones in USA have prizepools of millions of dollars. Its not a few G here and there.

Finch wrote:Chill out guys. I've gt 30 pages to catch up on. I hate to say I told you so, im never one to blow my own trumpet, but im feeling quite good. Will post again when I read everything.

Pipe down Bugle boy................

The big weekly NRL DFS games are probably going to get to $50,000 prize pool with five figures for first prize by the end of the year. Next year will be even huger when the bookies all get on board with DFS products. There will be big big coin on offer.

I'm involved in this stuff, have already spoken to one of the integrity units at one of the major sports. They are keeping a very close eye on things, don't you worry.

ryno_ wrote:

You nonce, the NFL ones in USA have prizepools of millions of dollars. Its not a few G here and there.

yes well i thought were talking specifically about the NRL moneyball competition here. Where i've stated i dont doubt you can build an edge but i doubt its economical given the prize pools.

And even with a bigger prizepools you can't just play 1 game and expect to win, you would still need a large sample to reach your expected outcome, ie enter a lot of games.

I have no knowledge of the DFS system, but the article cites that you win based on picking players that others haven't? Im not sure what that means or how they score in that system.

The DraftKings/FanDuel thing in the US was also made into a very big deal because a lot of people see daily fantasy as the "thin end of the wedge" when it comes to legalising sports gambling. Remember that in most of the US it's illegal to bet on sport, therefore there are a lot of people in the anti-gambling camp (ie a large percentage of conservative christian america) that pushed their agendas through this controversy.

Alright. Finally got caught up on the pages and the games over the weekend. Currently I am sitting in an overall rank of exactly 5.3K with a score of 660, Taupau and DCE to come. Looking at a score of around 750 I guess, which I think is about par? Maybe Slightly over.

That includes scores from Evans, Cooper, Gutherson etc. Im fairly happy with my team, except for a few players...

Matt Cooper. I hate to say I told you all so, but I told you all so. The Dragons pack is an absolute mess, there is too many cooks in the kitchen and the coach isnt giving consistent minutes, at least not to Cooper. He is gone for me once lockout ends, who for I dont know, but he is gone. I mentioned it during this week to trade him out but got told no, no and no. I accept your apology MS.

Kane Evans is another. He is scoring OK, but not great. I take it his price wont really budge, but I think he is going to be the Jordan McClean of 2016. Will look to shift him also, hopefully for Lawrence, but Cooper is defo the priority.

I mentioned Davis and Holland throughout the week, Holland especially. I wanted to trade him in but didn't get any information about him, no love for the trade idea, nothing. Now looks like a few people want to bring him in, which is good. Fair play though, you cant really bring anybody in unless you know about them.

I came very close to trading in Fensom this week, very lucky I didnt. My entire team has been pretty lucky with injuries. The only injury ive had so far is Ben Henry, which allows me to make the trades I want to make, not the trades I need to make.

I traded out Feeney this week for Walker and Leuluai for Carter. Pretty happy with those trades, especially since Leuluai got injured.

Anyway, im not one to blow my own trumpet, but I just kept reading the same information over again and I just had a gut feeling I was right. Not having a dig at anybody, just when I watched the games and saw the scores I just said to myself "Knew it".

Anyway, it was torture not being able to read the forums or check the scores until catching up on the games.

Who has the team "The Laughing Foxes"?

m0nty (FanLeague) wrote:The big weekly NRL DFS games are probably going to get to $50,000 prize pool with five figures for first prize by the end of the year. Next year will be even huger when the bookies all get on board with DFS products. There will be big big coin on offer.

I'm involved in this stuff, have already spoken to one of the integrity units at one of the major sports. They are keeping a very close eye on things, don't you worry.

O really that sounds very comforting.

Government collects taxes on gambling. Gambling companies provide markets on nrl which in turn increases viewership. Nrl sells broadcasting rights to channel channel 9 and foxtel based on viewership. NRL Integrity unit gets funded by Nrl. NRL integrity unit investigates gambling, reports to government.

No conflicts anywhere i can see.

Somebody is using a pep-tide guys, shit lets get onto that.

As you were

Thinking of getting Kyle Turner in for injured Ben Henry, I can't afford trbo but turner has played good minutes and so far has had 2 scores over 40. Anyone know if he's just a stop gap or likely to play most of the year?

OnTheLast wrote:Thinking of getting Kyle Turner in for injured Ben Henry, I can't afford trbo but turner has played good minutes and so far has had 2 scores over 40. Anyone know if he's just a stop gap or likely to play most of the year?

He will more than likely stay around until he gets injured.
The guy has a terrible long term injury record.
Very high risk, high reward.

Integrity units are there for a significant part to protect the codes from big lawsuits by gamblers. The Sirengate controversy in the AFL (Freo v St Kilda, the siren didn't work properly and a score after time ran out changed the result of the game) was one example where the processes fell down and lawsuits eventuated. So rather than a conflict of interest, integrity units have a positive incentive to keep the game clean, lest the leagues get dragged through the courts.

Yes, sport is run by money, but in this case it's a good thing. They will work hard to make sure DFS is not full of shysters.

lukeaye wrote:
I have no knowledge of the DFS system, but the article cites that you win based on picking players that others haven't? Im not sure what that means or how they score in that system.

You maximise your chance of winning big shares of the prizepool by having the best unique team by picking PODs. Especially if you know which PODs have the best chance of outscoring the classic picks. If a POD has a (statistically) a 20% chance of outscoring the consensus pick, but is only owned by 15% of the field, it would be an advantage to pick him.

1. James Tedesco
2. David Nofoaluma
3. Tim Simona
4. Kevin Naiqama
5. Jordan Rankin
6. Mitchell Moses
007. Luke Brooks
8. Aaron Woods (capt.)
9. Dene Halatau
10. Tim Grant
11. Curtis Sironen
12. Chris Lawrence
13. Sauaso Sue

Interchange:
14. Kyle Lovett
15. Josh Aloiai
16. Ava Seumanufagai
17. Manaia Cherringto

Wests Tigers NRL Coach Jason Taylor has finalised his team to take on the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles tonight in their Round 2 clash at Leichhardt Oval.

Kickoff for the match is at 7:00pm AEDT with live coverage via Fox Sports 1.

WESTS TIGERS

1. James Tedesco
2. David Nofoaluma
3. Tim Simona
4. Kevin Naiqama
5. Jordan Rankin
6. Mitchell Moses
007. Luke Brooks
8. Aaron Woods (capt.)
9. Dene Halatau
10. Tim Grant
11. Curtis Sironen
12. Chris Lawrence
13. Sauaso Sue

Interchange:
14. Kyle Lovett
15. Josh Aloiai
16. Ava Seumanufagai
17. Manaia Cherrington

Coach: Jason Taylor

FINAL TEAM: Wests Tigers are 1-17. Luke Brooks' (suspension) return sees Jack Littlejohn return to NSW Cup. Dene Halatau's return from suspension sees him start at hooker with Kyle Lovett returning to the bench in place of Jack Buchanan.

Sea Eagles

1 Tom Trbojevic
2 Jorge Taufua
3 Jamie Lyon (c)
4 Steve Matai
5 Brayden Wiliame
6 Dylan Walker
7 Daly Cherry-Evans
8 Josh Starling
9 Apisai Koroisau
10 Nate Myles
11 Lewis Brown
12 Martin Taupau
13 Jake Trbojevic

Interchange
14 Matt Parcell
15 Nathan Green
16 Brenton Lawrence
17 Siosaia Vave

Coach: Trent Barrett

FINAL TEAM: Sea Eagles are 1-17. A reshuffle of the Sea Eagles' forward pack sees Darcy Lussick and Blake Leary drop off their bench. Brenton Lawrence comes on to the interchange while Josh Starling will start in the front row. Nathan Green will play from the bench too as Martin Taupau shifts to the back row and Jake Trbojevic moves to lock.

Finch wrote:1. James Tedesco
2. David Nofoaluma
3. Tim Simona
4. Kevin Naiqama
5. Jordan Rankin
6. Mitchell Moses
007. Luke Brooks
8. Aaron Woods (capt.)
9. Dene Halatau
10. Tim Grant
11. Curtis Sironen
12. Chris Lawrence
13. Sauaso Sue

Interchange:
14. Kyle Lovett
15. Josh Aloiai
16. Ava Seumanufagai
17. Manaia Cherringto

Hey Finchy.....................

Hello Pacey