2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 13

lukeaye wrote:

Ask the same question in a few hours after jtrbo has actually played

You have 1 sample to go off, and if this years fantasy is anything to go off expect him to score 35 tonight, then probably 80 next week

More just asking wiser heads if its a sideways move as i dont want to waste trades

i dont think trbo will play any more mins tonight than he did as 'prop'. barrett basically said the middle 3 forwards will rotate. obviously if he can maintain the same workrate as last week he will be a gun but thats yet to be seen.

“We play with three ‘middles’ so I just think it gives us an extra bigger body, moving Marty to an edge,” Barrett said.

“It gives us four big blokes to try and get us off to a start which we didn’t get last week.”

He said Trbojevic’s role will not really change with his switch.

Barrett also said BJ and starling played nsw cup to get some big mins under their belt due to both returning from injury

Milchcow wrote:

If there is fraud, who do you think will be behind it

The stats providers, the comp providers, or some 3rd party?

Insider trading has been alleged in the states, so it might pop its head up here, but that has nothing to do with stats updates, and is more to do with player ownership levels

I suppose what I really mean is that someone responsible for reviewing the stats could be offered a slice of winnings if he is able to massage the stats in their favour every now and then. The parties involved could easily use multiple accounts and try and win against genuine players if they know certain players are likely to be given a decent score at stats' HQ. I'm not saying it's definitely happening and the amounts involved at the moment might mean it's not worth it.  

The fantasy games for US sports are huge and big sums can be won and lost. One of the US problems is that there is limited regulation because the games are classified as fantasy rather than gambling. Several states are challenging this to classify these sites as gambling websites, which would require them to have safeguards in place so the chance of fraud is minimised.

Kevin Proctor finished last night's game 33 points higher than Cameron Munster. After updates, the gap was 1 point. I know why updates happen and players can be wrongly identified etc.  I would just keep an eye out for odd patterns of updates happening regularly.

And I get that it's not really insider trading - what I meant is that someone on the "inside" may be involved.

Edit - to make clear I'm talking here about Moneyball-style games that people pay to play, not NRL Fantasy.

my tv broke wrote:i dont think trbo will play any more mins tonight than he did as 'prop'. barrett basically said the middle 3 forwards will rotate. obviously if he can maintain the same workrate as last week he will be a gun but thats yet to be seen.

“We play with three ‘middles’ so I just think it gives us an extra bigger body, moving Marty to an edge,” Barrett said.

“It gives us four big blokes to try and get us off to a start which we didn’t get last week.”

He said Trbojevic’s role will not really change with his switch.

Barrett also said BJ and starling played nsw cup to get some big mins under their belt due to both returning from injury

If his minutes don't change I'm going to have to work out how to get him in.

Milchcow wrote:

If there is fraud, who do you think will be behind it

The stats providers, the comp providers, or some 3rd party?

Insider trading has been alleged in the states, so it might pop its head up here, but that has nothing to do with stats updates, and is more to do with player ownership levels

Fraud would the stats providers. More likely would be people sharing ownership levels.

Milchcow wrote:

If there is fraud, who do you think will be behind it

The stats providers, the comp providers, or some 3rd party?

Insider trading has been alleged in the states, so it might pop its head up here, but that has nothing to do with stats updates, and is more to do with player ownership levels

A bunch of people got caught in the US NFL based DFF games doing insider trading. People who work for Moneyball betting on DraftKings (and vice versa) using information from their company about ownership % and other non-public information. They made millions between them.

Off topic but does anyone know the best place to park at Leichhardt? Can't get public transport as I'm gonna get home late so will have to drive in.

Might have to grease up Rashmeed and Sanchey,s palms to work my way up the ladder by the sounds of it

By the way guys, thanks for frigin talking about it. Now i have just put $50 in and most likely hooked

Bullbender wrote:Off topic but does anyone know the best place to park at Leichhardt? Can't get public transport as I'm gonna get home late so will have to drive in.

There's a school just around the corner. $15 from memory and it's the best place I've found

Krump wrote:
There's a school just around the corner. $15 from memory and it's the best place I've found

Thanks krump. I saw that mentioned in a forum when I was searching but the post was from 2005 so wasn't sure if it was still valid. Not a bad year that 2005 just quietly

Milchcow wrote:

But if they are doing that, why can't they get in at the start of the game and get the stats the way they want on the live update, rather than making large noticable changes afterwards.
if they just never published the initial stats and just went straight to final stats, would anybody think twice?

And these are the official NRL stats, used by all the clubs etc too. If players start getting noticably dodgy stats too often its going to come to people's attention.

The guys who actually enter stats aren't high up the food chain, so I'm sure its possible some of them might be receptive to a little outside influence to change stats where possible. I doubt there is enough money to make it worthwhile for any concerted effort though. The biggest prize on the weekend was $2000 first place in a moneyball tournament. Its not enough money to justify the slight edge that tweaking a couple of stats might give you.

The cheating at those low levels is all about looking at the data from the company you work for, knowing who the PODs are and who the underpriced players are and then applying that knowledge as a normal punter at another company.

there were some allegations on renegades that moneyball was entering a large number of their own fake teams to take up most of the prize money. nfi if its true or if the allegations even had any weight but it wouldn't surprise me..

i think they're only reason for this belief was that no one in renegades or associated groups ever wins the big prizes..

Chill out guys. I've gt 30 pages to catch up on. I hate to say I told you so, im never one to blow my own trumpet, but im feeling quite good. Will post again when I read everything.

ryno_ wrote:

The cheating at those low levels is all about looking at the data from the company you work for, knowing who the PODs are and who the underpriced players are and then applying that knowledge as a normal punter at another company.

Im not sure this makes any sense at all.

Given you cannot know the outcome of the individual players performance's prior to the game, how could you possibly apply the use of this information to a meaningful advantage?

You might be able to build a slight edge by skewing the results in your favour using statistics about POD's ard slight price variance's but then you might be talking about an edge that is say 5%.

If that were the case, you are not certain to win every moneyball game, you would win an extra 5% which would be 55 in 100. You would have to win so many games given the small prize pool

to make this even remotely economical given the risks.

my tv broke wrote:there were some allegations on renegades that moneyball was entering a large number of their own fake teams to take up most of the prize money. nfi if its true or if the allegations even had any weight but it wouldn't surprise me..

i think they're only reason for this belief was that no one in renegades or associated groups ever wins the big prizes..

Much more likely scenario: Renegades blokes are crap at Moneyball.

lukeaye wrote:

Im not sure this makes any sense at all.

Given you cannot know the outcome of the individual players performance's prior to the game, how could you possibly apply the use of this information to a meaningful advantage?

You might be able to build a slight edge by skewing the results in your favour using statistics about POD's ard slight price variance's but then you might be talking about an edge that is say 5%.

If that were the case, you are not certain to win every moneyball game, you would win an extra 5% which would be 55 in 100. You would have to win so many games given the small prize pool

to make this even remotely economical given the risks.

There is a thread on here about DFS. Have a look mate it's definitely worth a read if your giving it a try. You could DEFINITELY win guaranteed long term cash if you knew ownership levels.