2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 13

mulvy wrote:Cheers, I think I'm getting anyway. eg RTS with BE of 81 means even if he got his 2015 avg of 56 he is bleeding cash, correct?

Correct, BE isn't necessarily what they are priced at each week. It is the score they need to get to maintain their current price. (As the BE's take into account previous 5 game scores.)

Nikorima 35-40
Taylor 30-35
Walker 45-50

Sik wrote:So if JNik value goes to say $165k after this round. Is his BE determined by what a the average of a $165k player should average. Sorry just trying to understant

Without getting into the nitty-gritty of the exact formula, the overall theory is that there is a "magic number" which you multiply a player's score by to produce their price. Milchcow would know, but I think the MN this year was 8848 or thereabouts. Price changes use a rolling average to determine what the new price should be, but they don't just multiply that rolling average by the magic number to produce the new price, it's a gradual process. JNiko was priced at about 15 to start with, since he was $130,000 and 15 * 8848 is about that. If he keeps scoring exactly 35 every week, you'd expect his price to eventually rise to a level near the magic number multiplied by that new average, which would be about $310k. The way it works is that if the scores stay consistent, the price rises flatten out as they reach the new level.

There are a lot of complexities and wrinkles in the formula, but that's the basics.

Thanks guys

Sik wrote:Nikorima 35-40
Taylor 30-35
Walker 45-50

Using the higher number as their averages

Nikorima (40 point average) will be priced around $300k by Round 8/9 (Pearce comes back Round 9)
Taylor (35 point average) will be priced around $270k by Round 8/9 (However you should see how he scores today first)
Walker (50 point average) will be priced around $400k by Round 8/9 (He will cap out at about $430k by Round 20)
Garvey (50 point average) will end up around $300k by Round 6.

That is assuming they average what is listed. Any massive games can affect the score more than solid performances and raise their price outside these estimates.

Thanks Random/m0nty/multiple.scoregasms...

Clear as mud! Nah, think I get it...

Sik wrote:Thanks Random/m0nty/multiple.scoregasms...

Clear as mud! Nah, think I get it...

If Taylor doesn't improve without the rain this week and doesn't have at least 1 blinding game, I would grab Walker.

I'm looking at Norman if Taylor has another poor performance. Could put up DCE like kick metres next to Foran

multiple.scoregasms wrote:I'm looking at Norman if Taylor has another poor performance. Could put up DCE like kick metres next to Foran

Great byes, wont play origin. If he continues to score as he has been. He would be a great pick up.

The advantage Taylor has over Walker is he will most likely be there all season long, whereas Walker will most likely make way for Reynolds come rounds 7-10. The thing about cash cows though, is that you want them to get to their maximum as fast as possible and at this point, Walker looks like he will do that long before Taylor - which could be worth a trade this week (dependant on how Taylor performs today).

Remember though, that Walker has played in two massive Rabbitohs wins. I will be interested to see how he goes in a losing side.

If Taylor scores a 15-20, I will be taking the leap into Walker this week. If he scores 35+, then he will stay nestled into my side for the foreseeable future.

Other guys I have my eyes on are Gavet, Holland, Mataora, J.Trbojevic, Whitehead & Norman.

Random wrote:

Great byes, wont play origin. If he continues to score as he has been. He would be a great pick up.

over 500 km's. score of 70 with basically no attacking stats, def on my radar

mulvy wrote:

over 500 km's. score of 70 with basically no attacking stats, def on my radar

70?

I thought he scored 57?

He may have looked at Total Points is my guess.

Norman picked up much more kick metres this week, because Foran was still carrying an injury. I am sure Norman will always be the dominant kicker, but I doubt he will maintain as many metres as he made last night

Another thing to add is the magic number changes every week. I think it's got something to do with the total points scored in the previous round.

Pookus McFly wrote:Norman picked up much more kick metres this week, because Foran was still carrying an injury. I am sure Norman will always be the dominant kicker, but I doubt he will maintain as many metres as he made last night

Yeah not expecting 500+ from Norman every week but 350-400 could be his regular output. Peats isn't a big kicker, Gordon doesn't kick at all, no ball playing second rower to steal kick metres. Foran will still do a bit of short kicking with in the 20 but not much long kicking. If Taylor stinks it up this week then I'll have to decide between Bhana>Whitehead or Taylor>Norman

PARRAMATTA hooker Nathan Peats could be sidelined for up to six weeks after suffering a dislocated elbow in the Eels’ upset 20-16 NRL win over North Queensland.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/nrl/parramatta-hooker-nathan-peats-has-dislocated-elbow-and-will-miss-up-to-six-weeks/news-story/d7be88a825238c22a65af91a3ba21ad3

Terrible news for Peats owners and for the Eels.

Although that could mean he will be coming back just in time for Origin period which is good for non-owners of Peats.

Random wrote:Terrible news for Peats owners and for the Eels.

Although that could mean he will be coming back just in time for Origin period which is good for non-owners of Peats.

Im holding and praying for this at the moment. "Wests Tigers hooker Robbie Farah suffered a similar injury in 2014 and was expected to spend six weeks on the sidelines but returned after missing three matches."

CubanMafiaSandSlugs wrote:The advantage Taylor has over Walker is he will most likely be there all season long, whereas Walker will most likely make way for Reynolds come rounds 7-10. The thing about cash cows though, is that you want them to get to their maximum as fast as possible and at this point, Walker looks like he will do that long before Taylor - which could be worth a trade this week (dependant on how Taylor performs today).

Remember though, that Walker has played in two massive Rabbitohs wins. I will be interested to see how he goes in a losing side.

If Taylor scores a 15-20, I will be taking the leap into Walker this week. If he scores 35+, then he will stay nestled into my side for the foreseeable future.

Other guys I have my eyes on are Gavet, Holland, Mataora, J.Trbojevic, Whitehead & Norman.

With Walker all I know is he had a minus BE this week and he scored like what 60 this week so he'll skyrocket in value in a short space of time. I don't know if I'll be able to afford him since I want to move on Benry for Holland and not miss that train but Walker is becoming almost irresistible for me based on his money making ability.