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    2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 13

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    Post by Guest Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:08 pm

    ryno_ wrote:

    You maximise your chance of winning big shares of the prizepool by having the best unique team by picking PODs. Especially if you know which PODs have the best chance of outscoring the classic picks. If a POD has a (statistically) a 20% chance of outscoring the consensus pick, but is only owned by 15% of the field, it would be an advantage to pick him.

    So works the same as nrl DT.

    Sounds like the same problem though, you still need to build an algorithm to work out an expected outcome which is is far from infallible. But if you could get into enough games and with a big enough prize-pool, and your algorithm was reasonably robust, it would be economical.
    OnTheLast
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    Post by OnTheLast Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:11 pm

    Chucky wrote:
    He will more than likely stay around until he gets injured.
    The guy has a terrible long term injury record.
    Very high risk, high reward.

    Great thank you. I do love risk...I took the C off Smith this week haha
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    Post by Sashamaloo Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:11 pm

    Why the 007 for brooks, and for Williams on the weekend?
    I guess James bond movie promoters paid a shitload so the club said yes.
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    Post by Guest Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:11 pm

    Pacey's Best wrote:

    Hey Finchy.....................
    Better lift your game Pacey Laughing
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    Post by Pacey's Best Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:11 pm

    Wow, 9 players charged by the match review this week..

    http://www.nrl.com/nine-players-charged-by-match-review/tabid/10874/newsid/93790/default.aspx



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    Post by Pacey's Best Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:13 pm

    Bren wrote:
    Better lift your game Pacey Laughing

    HaHa, sure do.
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    Post by TBO Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:13 pm

    Finch wrote:Alright. Finally got caught up on the pages and the games over the weekend. Currently I am sitting in an overall rank of exactly 5.3K with a score of 660, Taupau and DCE to come. Looking at a score of around 750 I guess, which I think is about par? Maybe Slightly over.

    That includes scores from Evans, Cooper, Gutherson etc. Im fairly happy with my team, except for a few players...

    Matt Cooper. I hate to say I told you all so, but I told you all so. The Dragons pack is an absolute mess, there is too many cooks in the kitchen and the coach isnt giving consistent minutes, at least not to Cooper. He is gone for me once lockout ends, who for I dont know, but he is gone. I mentioned it during this week to trade him out but got told no, no and no. I accept your apology MS.

    Kane Evans is another. He is scoring OK, but not great. I take it his price wont really budge, but I think he is going to be the Jordan McClean of 2016. Will look to shift him also, hopefully for Lawrence, but Cooper is defo the priority.

    I mentioned Davis and Holland throughout the week, Holland especially. I wanted to trade him in but didn't get any information about him, no love for the trade idea, nothing. Now looks like a few people want to bring him in, which is good. Fair play though, you cant really bring anybody in unless you know about them.

    I came very close to trading in Fensom this week, very lucky I didnt. My entire team has been pretty lucky with injuries. The only injury ive had so far is Ben Henry, which allows me to make the trades I want to make, not the trades I need to make.

    I traded out Feeney this week for Walker and Leuluai for Carter. Pretty happy with those trades, especially since Leuluai got injured.

    Anyway, im not one to blow my own trumpet, but I just kept reading the same information over again and I just had a gut feeling I was right. Not having a dig at anybody, just when I watched the games and saw the scores I just said to myself "Knew it".

    Anyway, it was torture not being able to read the forums or check the scores until catching up on the games.

    Who has the team "The Laughing Foxes"?

    You never asked me.
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    Post by Guest Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:18 pm

    Pacey's Best wrote:

    HaHa, sure do.
    I was joking lad. I appreciate you posting up the updated team lists as Im sure many on here do. Keep up the great work Very Happy
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    Post by Finch Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:19 pm

    Pacey's Best wrote:Wow, 9 players charged by the match review this week..

    http://www.nrl.com/nine-players-charged-by-match-review/tabid/10874/newsid/93790/default.aspx




    I saw that also, 4 weeks for Matulino Shoulder charge.

    Hmmmm....
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    Post by Cake Tiger Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:22 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    But if they are doing that, why can't they get in at the start of the game and get the stats the way they want on the live update, rather than making large noticable changes afterwards.
    if they just never published the initial stats and just went straight to final stats, would anybody think twice?

    And these are the official NRL stats, used by all the clubs etc too. If players start getting noticably dodgy stats too often its going to come to people's attention.

    The guys who actually enter stats aren't high up the food chain, so I'm sure its possible some of them might be receptive to a little outside influence to change stats where possible. I doubt there is enough money to make it worthwhile for any concerted effort though. The biggest prize on the weekend was $2000 first place in a moneyball tournament. Its not enough money to justify the slight edge that tweaking a couple of stats might give you.

    Maybe different guys do the updates to the ones who compile the stats in the first place? And the guys lower down the food chain are the ones who are more likely to be corrupted for a few bucks.

    I agree with you - it's probably not worth it. But over the course of the season, I would be interested to hear if guys playing Moneyball keep getting bumped out of the prizes by updates.
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    Post by Pacey's Best Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:37 pm

    Bren wrote:
    I was joking lad. I appreciate you posting up the updated team lists as Im sure many on here do. Keep up the great work Very Happy

    Cheers Bren, Thanks mate.
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    Post by Krump Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:38 pm

    Bren wrote:
    I was joking lad. I appreciate you posting up the updated team lists as Im sure many on here do. Keep up the great work Very Happy
    Damn straight. Competition for spots can't hurt though Very Happy
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    Post by Krump Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:44 pm

    For Pacey and Finchy. Love your work guys Beer
    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t219-the-pacey-v-finchy-late-teams-thread#26692


    Edit: add the link numbnuts
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    Post by Warriors Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:58 pm

    Well with Mau being probably rubbed out for 1-2 games my decision to get j graham is made easier
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    Post by Revraiser Mon Mar 14, 2016 7:12 pm

    1 week or 7 for Peats, anything more concrete today ?

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    Post by Showbags Mon Mar 14, 2016 7:21 pm

    Cant believe how bad manly edge defense is.
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    Post by Mr Fernando Mon Mar 14, 2016 7:24 pm

    Sack Barrett now
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    Post by Johnny B Goode Mon Mar 14, 2016 7:29 pm

    Jack Bird's going to run rampant on Manly's edge defence next week
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    Post by Spectre Mon Mar 14, 2016 7:32 pm

    Brenton Lawrence has been on for 5 minutes and he's already Manly's best forward
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    Post by Showbags Mon Mar 14, 2016 7:34 pm

    Graham might have to wait a week for lawrence

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