NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:

mrbrownstone wrote:Is anyone looking at selling Ford?

BE up to 37 now so probably doesn't have a ton more cash to make, and Warriors have byes coming up in R12 and 16.

I'm probably overthinking it and should just hold for R13.

Other than the game where he got knocked out in the second minute, he has gone over that BE in every game this season.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
Is it best to go straight away since Nanai returns in 4 weeks or will he go to the other edge?

I’m thinking Alamoti to Luki. Would mean I’d need to trade in a CTR next week to cover Lemuelu but might force me into getting Bird which is a good thing I suppose

The issue with Luki is the injury risk. He done his hammy under fatigue so are they going to manage his minutes until he builds up some match fitness?

Honey Badger wrote:

The issue with Luki is the injury risk. He done his hammy under fatigue so are they going to manage his minutes until he builds up some match fitness?

Yeah it’s a pretty risky trade, which I’m usually very opposed to. 

Just have a bit of a feeling

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Really keen on Luki despite the red flags. Scores very well when he gets the chance to

What are the red flags? Also very interested in him, did I miss something?

mattnz wrote:Didnt realise Luki was this fast, easily caught Walsh

Yeah he’s fast, looks a great athlete. Is up there for buys (for byes)

But it’s also not a race - Walsh is holding a footy, tiptoes the sideline, looks over his shoulder a few times. Luki sprints in a straight line on the angle that cuts the distance.

Not having a go, just bothers me when people carry on about chasers being fast or ball carriers being slow. Still a huge effort and try save

In response to JM's deep dive on Horsburgh (and questions around realistic minutes), I thought it might be interesting to look at Locks this year;

What are reasonable minutes for a lock in 2023 and what are outlier numbers?

	GAMES	MIN	AVERAGE	MAX	MINS	MINS-MEDIAN	PPM
Isaah Yeo	8	55	65.3	83	79.3	80	0.82
Jack De Belin	3	52	65.0	76	76.0	80	0.86
Tohu Harris	4	49	59.8	70	75.5	80	0.79
Corey Harawira-Naera	5	26	39.8	48	74.4	73	0.53
Ryan Matterson	2	51	55.5	60	73.5	73.5	0.76
Cameron Murray	9	45	58.9	87	71.1	72	0.83
Corey Horsburgh	3	46	59.0	77	70.7	71	0.83
J'maine Hopgood	7	35	65.6	86	69.1	70	0.95
Josh King	8	32	54.8	77	67.9	67	0.81
Jack Bird	4	47	54.3	64	66.8	70	0.81
Patrick Carrigan	9	35	53.4	65	65.7	64	0.81
Victor Radley	7	20	39.7	58	65.0	69	0.61
Tom Gilbert	9	35	47.6	64	59.7	59	0.80
Fonua Pole	6	27	37.0	49	56.3	55	0.66
Jason Taumalolo	7	21	39.3	56	53.0	52	0.74
Isaac Liu	8	15	34.8	64	52.5	52	0.66
Dale Finucane	5	35	44.6	56	50.8	50	0.88
Raymond Faitala-Mariner	5	24	35.2	59	49.0	50	0.72
Josh Aloiai	8	30	37.4	44	45.5	45.5	0.82

I've pruned out the one-off type games. I'm not sure if CHN actually played lock (didn't catch those games).

But yeah, quite surprising to me how many are in the 65+ minute bracket.
I guess the only real conclusion that can be taken away is that with a 71 minute per game average, same 0.83PPM leading to the same average, that Horse is the new Cam Murray, and probably a FAC.

Note for the previous table;

MIN, AVE and MAX all relate to fantasy scores

The MINS are the average minutes
The MINS-MEDIAN are the middle amount of minutes played (i.e. if they played 9 games, it's the 5th most minutes - gives an idea of a normal amount that isn't skewed by a high/low outlier)

Harris had his two injury affected games removed

Interesting, thanks ET. Perhaps dropping the small-sample outliers (2-3 games) would strengthen the findings? It may help to eliminate errors from comparing actual-locks with injury/backup-locks. A part timer dummy would also work - could do it just by eye if you liked and compare the populations.

Now that Bird is back at lock, have landed on bringing him in this week, along with Bula and Luki.

Gives me 11 players for round 13.

First time long time.

Being driven mad by trade indecision this week.

Pre trades, team is:

Robson
Ford Murray Hass
Preston Hosking
Cleary Johnson
Manu Bird
Mitchell Miller Tedesco

Alamoti, i katoa, AKP, lemuelu,
Cheese, dunster, hands couchman

Now the trades:

1) alamoti, murray, hosking to JDB, bula, fifita.
Leaves me heaps of money in the bank and good origin coverage.

2) same dudes to hynes, horse, bula

Leaves me playing lemuelu in edge, and no cash. But brings in the best player in the game.

Thoughts? Better ideas? The single no brainer trade, i feel, is alamoti to Bula.

L-Jimmy wrote:Interesting, thanks ET. Perhaps dropping the small-sample outliers (2-3 games) would strengthen the findings? It may help to eliminate errors from comparing actual-locks with injury/backup-locks. A part timer dummy would also work - could do it just by eye if you liked and compare the populations.

I've edited out most of the 2-3 game players (a lot were Knights).
I've left in Matto (I think it's fairly indicative for him, albeit sometimes a "hybrid" role), and obviously Horse/JDB are fairly relevant.

Just in case anyone actually thinks I'm recommending Horse as an equivalent player to Murray - I am not, but getting good minutes is potentially maintainable (although it does come with a Ricky Stuart warning)

4-6 weeks for Brimson, grade 2 left hamstring tear.

Foran looking good to go this week.

https://www.titans.com.au/news/2023/05/03/injury-report-scan-results-return-for-brimson-foran/

mrbrownstone wrote:

What are the red flags? Also very interested in him, did I miss something?

Just some persistent injury worries is all

If anyone has a spare moment, I would love some trade advice on my Team Tracker.
Genuinely stuck this week.

Much appreciated

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
Is it best to go straight away since Nanai returns in 4 weeks or will he go to the other edge?

I’m thinking Alamoti to Luki. Would mean I’d need to trade in a CTR next week to cover Lemuelu but might force me into getting Bird which is a good thing I suppose

I would like to do Alamoti to Luki as well, would probably have done it next week, but Null's bye next week means I need Alamoti annoyingly. I don't think it's worthwhile if having to trade in another centre. Maybe if getting Bird I guess but I don't think I can afford that

Stylebender wrote:Updated my team tracker if anyone is bored shitless and wants to take a geez.

These are my 3 options for this week if anyone wants to offer their opinion, much appreciated.

Option 1:
Couchman & Alamoti to Tatola & Luki.
Two upgrades, improves my squads depth. Two value picks, however they both have injury risk.

Option 2:
Couchman, Alamoti & Haas to Tatola, Olapu & Hynes.
Selling Haas just feels wrong HOWEVER, as a strictly H2H player who is leading both of my cash leagues, Haas misses the H2H preliminary final so he would be a sell at that point. And I am confident I can make the top 4 without him.

Option 3:
Couchman, Alamoti & Preston to Tatola, Olapu & Fifita.

Im basically in the exact same spot (except I have Hynes) and Im also a H2H player

That option 3 looks quite good as Fifi looks the stand out Edge, my issue is the 860k price tag.

risk of moving Haas is if he goes huge in the Semi and knocks you out.

another option I have been looking at since we are in similar spot is just Couch up to Drinky. then Hold Preston and go someone on the bench down to Olo and then Alomti up Luki/Tatola

What are Murray owners doing? BE is crazy high but he hit that just a few rounds ago against the same opposition. I'm 50/50.

What are Cook owners doing? BE of 85 this week, which he's obviously capable of beating at any point, but if I'm going to trade him over Origin anyway I wonder if it's worth doing now before he loses more value.

thomglomerate wrote:First time long time.

Being driven mad by trade indecision this week.

Pre trades, team is:

Robson
Ford Murray Hass
Preston Hosking
Cleary Johnson
Manu Bird
Mitchell Miller Tedesco

Alamoti, i katoa, AKP, lemuelu,
Cheese, dunster, hands couchman

Now the trades:

1) alamoti, murray, hosking to JDB, bula, fifita.
Leaves me heaps of money in the bank and good origin coverage.

2) same dudes to hynes, horse, bula

Leaves me playing lemuelu in edge, and no cash. But brings in the best player in the game.

Thoughts? Better ideas? The single no brainer trade, i feel, is alamoti to Bula.

Can you cover Lemu next week if he is one of your starting 2rfs?