NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in

Camo123 wrote:

Wouldn’t say he’s an easy buy when there’s about 8 EDGs to pick from: Lane, Schuster, Roosters EDG, Piakura, Knights EDG, Dragons EDG?, Curran, Blore

Sure but you can very easily fit 4 of those 8 in your team.

* Curran as a MID (everyone will have him)

* Piakura and Schuster are walk up starts as long as they both have starting edge roles (and are quite a bit cheaper than the others, being in the low 400s instead of mid 500s)

* Wong is a decent shout if he gets that EDG spot but he's got Tuponiua, Crichton and Butcher x2 to compete with.

* Not convinced with the Knights edge - Pearce-Paul seems decent but an unknown quantity, and Lucas only ever really had appeal when he had CTR dual.

* Same with the Dragons edge - Dan Russell is no value if he gets the spot, though Eisenhuth could be some value if he's the guy that starts.

* Lane is a bit too expensive for my liking, he had one good season in 2022 but has never been relevant aside from that. I don't think Parra are a good enough team anymore for him to get enough attack.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Blore, Curran, Lane, Piakura, Roosters 2nd edge, Knights 2nd edge, Kikau, Duncan... how many must have mid-range edges can one realistically have.

If it's anything like last season, you can never have too many

Bethany_B wrote:

If it's anything like last season, you can never have too many

Well, of course you can. You need team structure, bye cover etc. (though it does help that a few of them are DPP).. And if you pick eight of them plus Haas and Cleary then good luck with getting a gun hooker or anyone over 300k in your backs.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Well, of course you can. You need team structure, bye cover etc. (though it does help that a few of them are DPP).. And if you pick eight of them plus Haas and Cleary then good luck with your backs or having a gun hooker.

Well yeah I was being somewhat hyperbolic there, you can obviously have too many, but I think having 4-6 of those guys is fine.

Duncan and Curran are MIDs (Duncan is currently MID only but I suspect he'd get dual before R1 if he actually gets the edge spot)

4 more on top of that should be fine - 2 in the starting EDG spots and 2 on the bench. I currently have Piakura, Schuster, Wong and Blore in those spots but decent chance 1 or 2 of these guys don't get the necessary starting edge spots (especially Wong)

Bethany_B wrote:

Well yeah I was being somewhat hyperbolic there, you can obviously have too many, but I think having 4-6 of those guys is fine.

Duncan and Curran are MIDs (Duncan is currently MID only but I suspect he'd get dual before R1 if he actually gets the edge spot)

4 more on top of that should be fine - 2 in the starting EDG spots and 2 on the bench. I currently have Piakura, Schuster, Wong and Blore in those spots but decent chance 1 or 2 of these guys don't get the necessary starting edge spots (especially Wong)

Yeah, sure. I mean... it's probably preferable for gameplay if there are a dozen of these dudes who are "must haves" because people will be forced to pick different slates of them so there's no real cookie cutter team.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Blore, Curran, Lane, Piakura, Roosters 2nd edge, Knights 2nd edge, Kikau, Duncan... how many must have mid-range edges can one realistically have.

Curran is dual, Duncan listed as MID.

Kikau was only fantasy relevant the year he was basically base priced. In 9 games at Dogs, he hasn't scored more than 50. His 37 average is in line with what you could expect, maybe low 40s if you are lucky. Has never been a work horse.

Lane has 1 good season, where he outperformed. Would need to repeat that form to be worthwhile. He only showed that kind of form in 1 out of 8 games last season, the rest of the scores you would have been disappointed with (had a 60, 44 and 6 games of 38 or less). Important to note that he has been priced at 41, despite only averaging 35 last season, a 6 point handicap based on last year's form.

Assuming starting EDG (or lock for Curran) spots, the must haves from that list are Blore, Curran (MID), Duncan (MID), Roosters 2nd edge, Knights 2nd edge, Piakura, add Matterson and Schuster (HLF) if starting EDG in round 1, but would also be my backup half on the bench.

I am also interested in Fifita, have always said that when he gets a coach that can arrange plays to find him some space, you would be crazy not to have him in your team, now that he is also a high work rate EDG with great base. Could easily start the season on fire and gap the rest of the EDGs by 15-20 points.

Team is going to be Cleary, Haas, half the Raiders team and the rest EDGs according to above

Snatchpato wrote:I thought we were supposed to be talking about footy.

Where's the wild speculation?? Matt? This time of the year is right up your alley mate. Give me some content

Ok, you asked, so here's my thoughts and wild speculation........

This year is the year of redemption for some players.

This year's (insert player who was in form from last year) is likely to be (2024 player).....

SJ will be Fogarty - Every year there is the half that returns to form, next to a non-kicking 6 and kicks goals, last year was SJ, Chad was that guy previously. This is Fog's year.

Preston will be Hughes - That Gould guy can spot a winner and is happy to tell the world when he finds one.

Carty will be Taumalolo - Hearing actual rumours (not started by me), that he will have a bigger role this season. If a guy like Carty can return to form, a genuine wrecking ball with amazing fitness like Lolo, should be able to as well.

Hammer will be Crichton - Will surprise everyone, by playing better at Fullback at the Dogs and scoring well in fantasy (still not picking him). Lots more run meters to be had in the backs at Bulldogs, than at Panthers, where all back 5 put up huge numbers, really just competing with Kiraz for taking hit ups at Bulldogs.

Ponga will be Turbo - Gets past the injuries and back to his best form.

mattnz wrote:

Kikau was only fantasy relevant the year he was basically base priced. In 9 games at Dogs, he hasn't scored more than 50. His 37 average is in line with what you could expect, maybe low 40s if you are lucky. Has never been a work horse.

Kikau is a boom player who can go on scoring runs. *Every season* he's played, other than last year's injury season, he's peaked in the mid or high 600ks. His starting price is 513k. There's your 150k of profit... he's fantasy relevant *this year*. Not going to be a keeper gun obviously, but that's not necessarily what your whole starting team are for. Buy the dip, sell the peak. His starting price is likely to be pretty close to the dip. His season averages, in this case, are irrelevant.

As it is, there looks like being enough players in his position/range that are more solid picks, but some of them are rookies and he's a star, so wouldn't discount him entirely if some of them don't appear in their starting teams, because if he does make cash he has the potential to make it fast.

mattnz wrote:

Ok, you asked, so here's my thoughts and wild speculation........

This year is the year of redemption for some players.

This year's (insert player who was in form from last year) is likely to be (2024 player).....

SJ will be Fogarty - Every year there is the half that returns to form, next to a non-kicking 6 and kicks goals, last year was SJ, Chad was that guy previously. This is Fog's year.

Preston will be Hughes - That Gould guy can spot a winner and is happy to tell the world when he finds one.

Carty will be Taumalolo - Hearing actual rumours (not started by me), that he will have a bigger role this season. If a guy like Carty can return to form, a genuine wrecking ball with amazing fitness like Lolo, should be able to as well.

Hammer will be Crichton - Will surprise everyone, by playing better at Fullback at the Dogs and scoring well in fantasy (still not picking him). Lots more run meters to be had in the backs at Bulldogs, than at Panthers, where all back 5 put up huge numbers, really just competing with Kiraz for taking hit ups at Bulldogs.

Ponga will be Turbo - Gets past the injuries and back to his best form.

Wait, when did Turbo get past the injuries?

(Other observation is that if you think Fogarty will "be" SJ, do you also think that the Raiders will surprise everyone and be a top 4 team? Because that's what it's going to take. You're also assuming that Fogarty is anywhere close to as good as SJ at actual football. Both these things are a stretch. As it is, I think Fog is going to be a 600k+ half with maybe a little bit of value in a bottom 4 team. The one "no-brainer" popular early pick that I'll be almost certain to fade.)

rhinoceroo wrote:

Kikau is a boom player who can go on scoring runs. *Every season* he's played, other than last year's injury season, he's peaked in the mid or high 600ks. His starting price is 513k. There's your 150k of profit... he's fantasy relevant *this year*. Not going to be a keeper gun obviously, but that's not necessarily what your whole starting team are for. Buy the dip, sell the peak. His starting price is likely to be pretty close to the dip. His season averages, in this case, are irrelevant.

As it is, there looks like being enough players in his position/range that are more solid picks, but some of them are rookies and he's a star, so wouldn't discount him entirely if some of them don't appear in their starting teams, because if he does make cash he has the potential to make it fast.

Kikau at the Dogs has shown he isn't the same player as Kikau at the Panthers, where he was hitting higher averages. Doesn't get the same attacking opportunities, which is where he scores his points. 9 games is a decent sample size, without a score over 50, playing at a team where he isn't racking up attacking stats. Much better value elsewhere.

Burton hasn't been able to find any consistency, running the left side attack at Bulldogs, and they are often on the losing side by hefty margins.

Hard to post decent scores for an attacking weapon, when consistently defending and standing under your goal posts. Bulldogs had the worst points differential in the comp at -333 last season, while Panthers had the mirror image +333 points differential. How many points per game is that 666 points difference between teams worth in Kikau's performance, 8 to 10 per game?

rhinoceroo wrote:

Wait, when did Turbo get past the injuries?

(Other observation is that if you think Fogarty will "be" SJ, do you also think that the Raiders will surprise everyone and be a top 4 team? Because that's what it's going to take. You're also assuming that Fogarty is anywhere close to as good as SJ at actual football. Both these things are a stretch. As it is, I think Fog is going to be a 600k+ half with maybe a little bit of value in a bottom 4 team. The one "no-brainer" popular early pick that I'll be almost certain to fade.)

Fogarty picks up goal kicking from Croker, kicking meters from Wighton and becomes the focus of attack, instead of Wighton. Doesn't need to set the world on fire, just do better than last year by 8-10 points, which is in line with his previous scoring when running the show at Titans, so has shown he is capable of it.

mattnz wrote:

Kikau at the Dogs has shown he isn't the same player as Kikau at the Panthers, where he was hitting higher averages. Doesn't get the same attacking opportunities, which is where he scores his points. 9 games is a decent sample size, without a score over 50, playing at a team where he isn't racking up attacking stats. Much better value elsewhere.

Burton hasn't been able to find any consistency, running the left side attack at Bulldogs, and they are often on the losing side by hefty margins.

Hard to post decent scores for an attacking weapon, when consistently defending and standing under your goal posts. Bulldogs had the worst points differential in the comp at -333 last season, while Panthers had the mirror image +333 points differential. How many points per game is that 666 points difference between teams worth in Kikau's performance, 8 to 10 per game?

I won't dispute that the Dogs were rotten last year. Not sure Kikau's sample size is useful because the his team were clueless for the early games and he was coming back off a long injury for the late ones. There's a certain expectation that they could be a better side this year, but yes, not as good as the Panthers.

As said, very unlikely I'll start with him, but don't think it's the worst play if you time it right and happy to avatar bet that he'll hit 650k at some point in the season (I'll have forgotten this by April let alone September, so do bookmark it).

rhinoceroo wrote:

I won't dispute that the Dogs were rotten last year. Not sure Kikau's sample size is useful because the his team were clueless for the early games and he was coming back off a long injury for the late ones. There's a certain expectation that they could be a better side this year, but yes, not as good as the Panthers.

As said, very unlikely I'll start with him, but don't think it's the worst play if you time it right and happy to avatar bet that he'll hit 650k at some point in the season (I'll have forgotten this by April let alone September, so do bookmark it).

Yeah, would take that bet.

Another interesting take on it, is looking at Sorenson when he has had that exact same role at Panthers (52 average last season) vs at Sharks where in 9 games as starting EDG, he had 1 score over that average. Panthers left EDG is as good as it gets to make a player shine.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Wait, when did Turbo get past the injuries?

(Other observation is that if you think Fogarty will "be" SJ, do you also think that the Raiders will surprise everyone and be a top 4 team? Because that's what it's going to take. You're also assuming that Fogarty is anywhere close to as good as SJ at actual football. Both these things are a stretch. As it is, I think Fog is going to be a 600k+ half with maybe a little bit of value in a bottom 4 team. The one "no-brainer" popular early pick that I'll be almost certain to fade.)

Granted it was Vlandysball in 2021, but Fogarty averaged 59.5 in full games (pre rule change for KM) when Titans come 8th

Probably more Townsend 2021 than SJ but should be great value

mattnz wrote:

Fogarty picks up goal kicking from Croker, kicking meters from Wighton and becomes the focus of attack, instead of Wighton. Doesn't need to set the world on fire, just do better than last year by 8-10 points, which is in line with his previous scoring when running the show at Titans, so has shown he is capable of it.

So, a bit of value but no sign of SJ's keeper scores? Because that's kind of what I'd want with a half in his price range, and what happened with SJ last year.

I also wouldn't assume that whoever plays 5/8th for Raiders simply doesn't kick at all. Don't know about Strange, but Weekes has a kicking game. I wouldn't be expecting all that many conversions either.

I know I'm likely to be an outlier on this one, but whatever. Getting a whole load of meh from Fog. Average player in the backline of poor teams can be fantasy killers. Good luck to everyone who takes him but going to try to pony up the cash for Moses.

Camo123 wrote:

Granted it was Vlandysball in 2021, but Fogarty averaged 59.5 in full games (pre rule change for KM) when Titans come 8th

Probably more Townsend 2021 than SJ but should be great value

Dude has a last 10 average of 44, and that's either with goalkicking, without Wighton, or both. I know the Fog train is inevitable because there's really nobody else in range (well, Sam Walker if he gets goalkicking, which he probably won't) but all I'm saying is that if you're down on the Raiders' prospects (raises hand), it's not a slam dunk.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Dude has a last 10 average of 44, and that's either with goalkicking, without Wighton, or both. I know the Fog train is inevitable because there's really nobody else in range (well, Sam Walker if he gets goalkicking, which he probably won't) but all I'm saying is that if you're down on the Raiders' prospects (raises hand), it's not a slam dunk.

The key reason that people are down on Raiders this season, is that they are a worse team due to Wighton gone. In Fog's case that is actually a positive though, as it makes him the clear dominant half.

If not going Fogarty, I would be seriously looking at just having Cleary, Schuster as my halves, with Weekes as back up. Not currently seeing the value elsewhere outside of those 4 halves.

Even with Wighton playing, in 2022 Fogarty averaged 51, that is 5 points of value, plus whatever the Wighton factor is worth.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Blore, Curran, Lane, Piakura, Roosters 2nd edge, Knights 2nd edge, Kikau, Duncan... how many must have mid-range edges can one realistically have.

Duncan if starts on edge will get dpp mid/edg also as currently classified as mid
On Blore the current edges E. Katoa & Loiero look pretty nailed can't see Blore taking 1 of their spots so imo he's from bench
Kikau is a wait & see imo he was pretty quiet in 2023
R. Matterson if starting on edge will be a good option..small sample size in 2023 only 4 games at edg for 70+ mins he av 59
imo curran, piakura, wong if starts, lucas if pierce-paul is injured (btw pearce-paul is cheaper than lucas at 520k & seems 1st choice) & duncan the options