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    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 2 - We've all been waiting for Weekes

    Lemmy KGB
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    Post by Lemmy KGB Sat Feb 03, 2024 7:46 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Last season 18th man for QLD was Dearden x 2 and Brimson. Walsh would fit perfectly in that role.

    Yep, left right out
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    Post by mattnz Sat Feb 03, 2024 8:18 pm

    Lemmy KGB wrote:

    Yep, left right out

    Would still miss Broncos games
    mickspicks
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    Post by mickspicks Sat Feb 03, 2024 9:14 pm

    Ponga seems to have taken a step forward in professionalism, responsibility and focus. Just gives different vibes now. Probably maturity. It's all well and good to be touted as the next prodigy, but it's better to actually be it. Took the big step last year, hoping it kicks on for him. And as said above, the result: Walsh being left right out.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Sat Feb 03, 2024 9:35 pm

    Nobody mentioning Holmes as a gun centre? Probably priced realistically but goalkicking stud for a team with an easy schedule and no byes until Origin (when you'll have to sell him).

    Stinks to shell out so much on a centre playing centre but best of the high end options imo.
    L-Jimmy
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    Post by L-Jimmy Sat Feb 03, 2024 10:33 pm

    Am I missing something with Liddle?

    Averages over 50 when playing 60+ minutes, and the Dragons don't look to be playing a bench hooker.

    Sure, he's got an injury record longer than even my proverbial, but still at 536k colour me tempted.

    Unless we think young Flanagan will rotate there mid-match? Which could happen for say Bird but.... that doesn't look like a strong play (to say the least).

    @robelgordo or any other StG fans - am I missing something?
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Sat Feb 03, 2024 10:40 pm

    L-Jimmy wrote:Am I missing something with Liddle?

    Averages over 50 when playing 60+ minutes, and the Dragons don't look to be playing a bench hooker.

    Sure, he's got an injury record longer than even my proverbial, but still at 536k colour me tempted.

    Unless we think young Flanagan will rotate there mid-match? Which could happen for say Bird but.... that doesn't look like a strong play (to say the least).

    @robelgordo or any other StG fans - am I missing something?

    Think the expectation is that the Dragons will have a hooker (Connor Muhleison) on the bench. Another "wait for team lists" I guess.
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Sun Feb 04, 2024 6:34 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:Nobody mentioning Holmes as a gun centre? Probably priced realistically but goalkicking stud for a team with an easy schedule and no byes until Origin (when you'll have to sell him).

    Stinks to shell out so much on a centre playing centre but best of the high end options imo.

    B/L recommended Holmes a few pages back.
    Decent enough base with 3G, net 4TCK and about 160MG for a 26 floor (which incidentally was his 3 lowest 80 minute scores).

    Like someone said a low average tackle count with 7.8 and 2.2 missed tackles (no doubt boosted by Starford To'a owning him...) per game
    If he could boost that involvement and drop the MT's down, then a handy low 30's floor would be great.

    His main upside seems to be no byes pre-origin and potentially some positive regression for tries/goal kicks if the Cowboys are much improved this year.

    Holy Moly
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    Post by Holy Moly Sun Feb 04, 2024 6:51 am

    What's this word "fading"? Is it new lingo that I've missed? Or has it been around a while? Does it mean "going cold on"?
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:18 am

    easytiger wrote:

    B/L recommended Holmes a few pages back.
    Decent enough base with 3G, net 4TCK and about 160MG for a 26 floor (which incidentally was his 3 lowest 80 minute scores).

    Like someone said a low average tackle count with 7.8 and 2.2 missed tackles (no doubt boosted by Starford To'a owning him...) per game
    If he could boost that involvement and drop the MT's down, then a handy low 30's floor would be great.

    His main upside seems to be no byes pre-origin and potentially some positive regression for tries/goal kicks if the Cowboys are much improved this year.


    Cowboys were only marginally behind top 4 teams for tries/goals due to the 74-0 game so there might not be much positive regression for tries/goals

    Same with Eels. Roosters were in the bottom 4 for tries/goals but made the 8 which is interesting
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:37 am

    Holy Moly wrote:What's this word "fading"? Is it new lingo that I've missed? Or has it been around a while? Does it mean "going cold on"?

    "Betting against", in this context "not owning". Been a term for a long time in the US, but everything is global now isn't it?
    Holy Moly
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    Post by Holy Moly Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:57 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    "Betting against", in this context "not owning". Been a term for a long time in the US, but everything is global now isn't it?

    Cheers. I'm out of the loop on a a lot of stuff. Betting against. Well there you go.
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Sun Feb 04, 2024 8:34 am

    https://wageringterms.com/definition/fade

    What is a Fade bet?

    A Fade refers to a wager against a particular person, team or market. This term is commonly used when a bettor dislikes a bet and consequentially bets against it, or actively chooses to avoid betting on the game due to it being a risky situation.

    A fade can come about when a bettor is given advice to bet on something, but they choose to fade that advice as they don't agree with it. The phrase "Fade of the Day" is used to describe a situation where a popular opinion is to bet against a certain person, team or market.
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Sun Feb 04, 2024 8:44 am

    Camo123 wrote:

    Cowboys were only marginally behind top 4 teams for tries/goals due to the 74-0 game so there might not be much positive regression for tries/goals

    Same with Eels. Roosters were in the bottom 4 for tries/goals but made the 8 which is interesting

    That's fair relative to other teams.
    I was more thinking in terms that they were nearly a hundred points less in FOR compared to the previous season. When their attack is on, they strike me as one of the better attacking teams, which they weren't for a good half of last season.

    Not sure there's much upside for Holmes, but if the Cowboys click early, there could be a handful of points upside, in conjunction with playing each week (team at least).

    Roosters definitely seem like the team to keep an eye on
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Sun Feb 04, 2024 9:52 am

    L-Jimmy wrote:Am I missing something with Liddle?

    Averages over 50 when playing 60+ minutes, and the Dragons don't look to be playing a bench hooker.

    Sure, he's got an injury record longer than even my proverbial, but still at 536k colour me tempted.

    Unless we think young Flanagan will rotate there mid-match? Which could happen for say Bird but.... that doesn't look like a strong play (to say the least).

    @robelgordo or any other StG fans - am I missing something?

    I don’t know for sure but I expect they will have a bench hooker, likely this Muhleisen kid that is rated highly. But he’s definitely worth it if there’s no bench hooker or some indicator he plays 55-60+
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Sun Feb 04, 2024 10:08 am

    Alfie wrote:Anyone sniffing around Smithies for round 1? Obviously there's the risk that he drops to the bench once the Horse returns but I feel like he's a decent chance of retaining a starting spot regardless. Papali'i actually moved to the bench for his last two games with Guler starting. Could we see a front row of Horsburgh and Tapine with Papa coming off the bench I wonder? Young and Whitehead weren't too hot defensively last year either, 2nd and 3rd respectively for missed tackles amongst backrowers.  

    You might say 'wait and see' but what if he drops a couple 60+ scores and puts himself out of your price range? Food for thought.

    I read in those super league stats that he lead the comp for missed tackles last year. Eww.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Sun Feb 04, 2024 10:24 am

    Mulvy wrote:

    I read in those super league stats that he lead the comp for missed tackles last year. Eww.

    You read it wrong.

    Smithies led the league in MT (Marker Tackles)

    Was well down the list in MI (MIssed tackles)
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    Post by Tall_man Sun Feb 04, 2024 10:36 am

    Camo123 wrote:

    Cowboys were only marginally behind top 4 teams for tries/goals due to the 74-0 game so there might not be much positive regression for tries/goals

    Same with Eels. Roosters were in the bottom 4 for tries/goals but made the 8 which is interesting

    So you're telling me to go all in on Sam Walker? Seriously though someone talk me out of Sam Walker
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Sun Feb 04, 2024 10:37 am

    Alfie wrote:

    Curran - for sure
    Baker - likely has to start and play over 40mins to be relevant, seems kinda unlikely.
    Knight - probably starts and hits mid 30s in 40 I reckon. If he could somehow return to 2020 form where he essentially averaged 40 in 40 with new scoring added, he'd be great, but he's been on and off the park too often for me. Kurt Mann will also likely eat a lot more minutes than any of the benchwarmers the Bulldogs have persisted with the last few years.
    RFM - as you say, a bit of a maybe. I think he'll be more of a role player off the bench.
    Cheese - scored a bucket of tries in 2021, a year I think most people are being very optimistic to think he can replicate. 37 and 39 average last 2 years, 43 in 2020.
    Cotter - a big maybe as well; averaged 48 before Origin, which is better but not great. 10 scores of 40 or less as well - has never shown enough consistency at club level for me (fantasy-wise of course). He's similar to Radley, top shelf but doesn't quite translate.

    Smithies' role certainly isn't as secure as some of these boys but unlike them and even a lot of the value EDG options, a healthy role could make him a season keeper.

    Big IF of course. Probably dreamin.

    I didn't realise how cheap Knight was. He would definitely need to be starting though, see how trials go. RFM would be starting edge, no? He doesn't have a lot of competition there, and he has historically scored better there in fantasy. I think Cheese is about 5 points undervalued which puts him in the awkward area of not being a keeper but not making enough money to be a cash cow. There are worse picks and he can plod all the way up to the big byes without a bye. I still prefer Brailey despite talk of time share with Crossland. I think that is probably overstated, Brailey may be a slow burn at first, but has a much higher ceiling than Cheese. I mentioned before about Smithies missed tackles in super league, and I suspect it will primarily be a bench role for him anyway.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Sun Feb 04, 2024 10:37 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    You read it wrong.

    Smithies led the league in MT (Marker Tackles)

    Was well down the list in MI (MIssed tackles)

    Oh, well that changes everything!

    * Proceeds to check his price again study
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    Post by Milchcow Sun Feb 04, 2024 10:40 am

    Tall_man wrote:
    Camo123 wrote:

    Cowboys were only marginally behind top 4 teams for tries/goals due to the 74-0 game so there might not be much positive regression for tries/goals

    Same with Eels. Roosters were in the bottom 4 for tries/goals but made the 8 which is interesting

    So you're telling me to go all in on Sam Walker? Seriously though someone talk me out of Sam Walker

    Speaking of Sam Walker and tries/goals, is he going to be first choice goalkicker again?

    Suaalii kept kicking for a few weeks after Walker's return, but Walker got it back in finals - his for good?

    Similar question with Papenhuyzen/Meaney at the Storm. Is Meaney keeping the job or will Papi get it back

      Current date/time is Fri Sep 20, 2024 3:00 am