NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 3 - Half the height we want

my tv broke wrote:Never has a more mattnz pick turned up than Kini and he wants to take the wet blanket Cotric instead. 

Adonbilivit

Is it because other people talked about him first?

I currently have both in my team, but reconsidering Kini. If I had to chose 1 it would be Cotric. Don't mind a slower burn if they have the position and can provide decent cover if needed, especially at the worst position to cover at CTR.

It sounds like Burbo will be EDG in R1, but then there are 2 weeks for Schuster to recover, get fitter and claim that spot on return. Can't miss Burbo in case he gets the position for longer (thinking of K Brom a few years ago when he held that position for the season, when we all thought he was just the fill in), but you don't want to be relying on Burbo if playing on the bench R2 (or later rounds). Replacing Burbo on that budget would only really leave you with Cotric as the option at CTR anyway. Might as well start with him.

Its pretty likely going to be messy with the cheap backs anyway. Could see Strange start at CTR in R1 and dropped in R2 for Kris.

My season last year was screwed by getting hit with early injuries that I couldn't replace fast enough, with only 2 trades per week. That included needing to trade out Trindall as well when the injuries were hitting.

Of all the cheap backs, Kini is the one that will definitely be out R2 and is expected to be unavailable from R4 or 5, giving him just 2 or 3 games, with a week off in the middle of it. Why take an unnecessary risk?

mattnz wrote:

I currently have both in my team, but reconsidering Kini. If I had to chose 1 it would be Cotric. Don't mind a slower burn if they have the position and can provide decent cover if needed, especially at the worst position to cover at CTR.

It sounds like Burbo will be EDG in R1, but then there are 2 weeks for Schuster to recover, get fitter and claim that spot on return. Can't miss Burbo in case he gets the position for longer (thinking of K Brom a few years ago when he held that position for the season, when we all thought he was just the fill in), but you don't want to be relying on Burbo if playing on the bench R2 (or later rounds). Replacing Burbo on that budget would only really leave you with Cotric as the option at CTR anyway. Might as well start with him.

Its pretty likely going to be messy with the cheap backs anyway. Could see Strange start at CTR in R1 and dropped in R2 for Kris.

My season last year was screwed by getting hit with early injuries that I couldn't replace fast enough, with only 2 trades per week. That included needing to trade out Trindall as well when the injuries were hitting.

Of all the cheap backs, Kini is the one that will definitely be out R2 and is expected to be unavailable from R4 or 5, giving him just 2 or 3 games, with a week off in the middle of it. Why take an unnecessary risk?

I don't understand why everyone is automatically assuming JC gets the spot when he comes back. If Kini kills it he will be hard to drop - club rates him very highly (signed till end of 26) was also in the kiwis squad end of the year. If he gets the 1 in the first game I would not be suprised if it turns into his spot to lose.

On the Kini Trindall comparison there is also some upside to Kini in that if he does shoot the lights out and the Titans are winning then he might be a chance to hold the spot, compared to Trindall who was always only going to get minutes while Hynes was injured. That likely maps with the 45+ average he needs to make cash. If he doesn't then it's just a failed cow and you can hop off him for someone who is performing. Being slightly more expensive actually helps a bit in that case.

Edit: i.e long winded version of what Minto said

Cotric still had 4 out of 9 games at winger last year score 21 or under (1 of these was an HIA after 70 minutes)
There was another game where he got 7 in 54 minutes - which wasn't heading for greatness if he did play the 80

2021 and 2022 not much better. Some good scores, but a bunch under 20 too

2020 was a great year, but his 38 average was under old TB scoring, so he loses 5.6 points a game with current scoring (and no significant offloads to bump it back up)

Over 30 average would still be pretty good, but you're going a fair way back in time to get it, and I am not sure how good his job security is.

I'll almost certainly start with a couple of raiders, because they have so many cheaper players looking like getting a good role this year. Cotric might be one, but not going to lock it in

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Milchcow wrote:
Cotric still had 4 out of 9 games at winger last year score 21 or under (1 of these was an HIA after 70 minutes)
There was another game where he got 7 in 54 minutes - which wasn't heading for greatness if he did play the 80

2021 and 2022 not much better. Some good scores, but a bunch under 20 too

2020 was a great year, but his 38 average was under old TB scoring, so he loses 5.6 points a game with current scoring (and no significant offloads to bump it back up)

Over 30 average would still be pretty good, but you're going a fair way back in time to get it, and I am not sure how good his job security is.

I'll almost certainly start with a couple of raiders, because they have so many cheaper players looking like getting a good role this year. Cotric might be one, but not going to lock it in

Fairish call - but last year was injury-affected. He did a hamstring and then tried to come back early and then had some more time off as a result. It is pretty rare for WNG to play off the bench or have 3-minute cameos appearances at the end of the game and I do not imagine this situation will be repeated in 2024. In 2021/22, even without playing his best, he averaged 30+. He is priced at 19, has DPP, and, in my opinion, has fairly good job security. Canberra has an oversupply of 5/8s and Fullbacks as opposed to big wingers who cart the ball back. Not gonna be in my 17 - but is very likely to be in my 18-21

For those on the JBrailey wagon, I’ve heard a rumour he’s done a hammy and they’ve been keeping it a secret for the past month.
They’re not sure if he will be good to go by round one.

Rabbits21 wrote:

Pap looked very good

My brief summary brother

My summary

This was desperately close to a haiku.
I was devasted there wasn't one more syllable.

Nathan Brown has been added at $384k

Filth was desperate
For just one more syllable
So close, yet so far

mattnz wrote:Nathan Brown has been added at $384k

My first foray into NRLFF was 2019. Literally made a team the night before, no research, just going off gut from various NRL draft leagues I've been in with very different scoring formats.

Captained Nathan Brown, DESPITE OWNING DAMIAN COOK.

He got 7 in 11 mins before getting injured. Was ~37,000th at the end of the round.

I did get better, found footystatistics, then here, ended the year about 3000th. Actually did worse in 2021 and 2022.

Anyways I think the point was... fuck Nathan Brown.

filthridden wrote:
This was desperately close to a haiku.
I was devasted there wasn't one more syllable.

Got a problem?
Easily fix it with some patented B/L magic...

Rabbits21 wrote:

Pap looked very good

My brief summary brother

My summary kents

my tv broke wrote:I dont see Ricky playing an 18 yr old at fb in round 1.

This.

If my memory serves, Sticky wasn't that keen on leaving Savage at fullback last year (or 2022) because he was too young and underdone.
As a coach Ricky is pretty focussed on player welfare, so even though Stewart may be carving it up in the juniors, and "training the house down", week-in-week-out NRL will put a strain on his body and mind. I can see him getting some game time (games), but also being rested.

Of course this may all be BS and the kid's a star in the making.

Genderbender wrote:For those on the JBrailey wagon, I’ve heard a rumour he’s done a hammy and they’ve been keeping it a secret for the past month.
They’re not sure if he will be good to go by round one.

I gave you a thumbs up for the info, but wish I could give 1000 thumbs down for the news.
Boo. We Boo you hammy-gods.

I guess a switch to Phoenix rising from the ashes may be on the cards.

Milchcow wrote:Filth was desperate
For just one more syllable
So close, yet so far

As an English teacher, I support this beautiful haiku by the Great Cow.

my tv broke wrote:

Would have had that extra syllable if you spelt devastated correctly

Devastated is actually the more modern term.
I would've been using devasted as a kid* before you younguns came along and changed it

*If I was born in the 1600s.

The Bludger#2 wrote:

I gave you a thumbs up for the info, but wish I could give 1000 thumbs down for the news.
Boo. We Boo you hammy-gods.  

I guess a switch to Phoenix rising from the ashes may be on the cards.

It’s definitely a shame for him personally, it’s probably a blessing to the fantasy world though as I don’t think he was ever going to come straight back and bang out 80 mins.
I was never on him for that reason but I’d seen a bit of chatter here.
I thought the biggest thing to come from that news was that they were able to keep it a secret for so long, with a captain no less.
If the ranks are that tight in Newcastle they could be in for a good year.
This might sound weird but it makes Elliot a bit more attractive to me now, Crossland was probably going to steal a few minutes from him but if Brailey is back in a more reduced role than first expected then Crossland might get those mins at hooker instead.