NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 4 - A spawning salmon appears

Loiero is more likely to lose 10 points than gain 10, priced at 44. Why would he get good minutes with King, Kamikamica, NAS and Welsh all in the rotation with him? Stop throwing the newcomers off.

RandomSil wrote:

I had two top 10 picks.. and drafted the 20th best option and someone outside the top 30...

Fuck im winning my draft

Gotta admit I was thinking to myself what on earth game is Sil playing?

You will at least have fun watching.

Alfie wrote:Loiero is more likely to lose 10 points than gain 10, priced at 44. Why would he get good minutes with King, Kamikamica, NAS and Welsh all in the rotation with him? Stop throwing the newcomers off.

Who is trying to throw newcomers off?

Welshy wrote:

Who is trying to throw newcomers off?

Haha, I would never accuse you or anyone of ”trying” to do something so devilish (maybe Dolphin hehe).

I probably see the rotation something like this:

Welch 45
Garlick 25
King 50
Bradley/Blore 80
Katoa 80
Loiero 40

Grant 65
NAS 40
Kamikamica 40
Fa’alago 15

Community team initial planning

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2354-community-team-2024-planning

Alfie wrote:

Haha, I would never accuse you or anyone of ”trying” to do something so devilish (maybe Dolphin hehe).

I probably see the rotation something like this:

Welch 45
Garlick 25
King 50
Bradley/Blore 80
Katoa 80
Loiero 40

Grant 65
NAS 40
Kamikamica 40
Fa’alago 15

If Loiero starts at lock R1 can't see how Bellamy doesn't maintain similar positional rotation minutes to last season mate.

King into prop rotation, With Welch, Kami, NAS. Think he gets 50-65 if named to start and Storm pack at full strength

Welshy wrote:

If Loiero starts at lock R1 can't see how Bellamy doesn't maintain similar positional rotation minutes to last season mate.

King into prop rotation, With Welch, Kami, NAS. Think he gets 50-65 if named to start and Storm pack at full strength

I think it was less based on position and more based on Kings ability to play big minutes, would be amazed if King drops below 55 minutes.

3 spots left in VSDT Fantasy if anyone is interested then it will close

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2343-2024-nrl-vsdt-fantasy-league-registration

mattnz wrote:

I think it was less based on position and more based on Kings ability to play big minutes, would be amazed if King drops below 55 minutes.

Obviously different on the edge playing big minutes than in the middle but Loiero is more capable of playing big minutes over previous Storm locks when Tui/NAS have played there.

King has averaged
60mins 2022 season starting lock
65mins 2023 season starting lock

Loiero in a far more simlilar mould to King to replicate the minutes the storm lock role has played last 2 seasons, if that's the way the Storm continue forward.

Welshy wrote:

Obviously different on the edge playing big minutes than in the middle but Loiero is more capable of playing big minutes over previous Storm locks when Tui/NAS have played there.

King has averaged
60mins 2022 season starting lock
65mins 2023 season starting lock

Loiero in a far more simlilar mould to King to replicate the minutes the storm lock role has played last 2 seasons, if that's the way the Storm continue forward.

Big minute locks that move into the prop rotation, typically still play big minutes. King would also likely take significant minutes from Loiero.

This will be Loiero’s first foray as a ‘big minute’ middle. I’m struggling to see him play more minutes than King in the middle given how fit and purpose-built King is for defense. Even if Loiero plays 50 or 60, can’t see him scoring too much more than 40 in all honesty.

FFS, can we please learn probability?

If there is a 50% chance a player changes their role, leading to a 10 point increase in scoring, then that's the same as a player with a 100% chance of increasing their output by 5 points.

Failing to be clear about the uncertainty associated with predicted role changes is just as poor as being inaccurate about historical actual points.

Something I didn't really pay attention to in the Tigers game - how did Sullivan/Sezer split the kicking?
Stats say it was even, but was that distorted by game time and did one dominate kicking when both were on the field?

Just looking at Sullivan, and with a decent chunk of kicking he'll be alright, but otherwise probably not
Last year he kicked for 572m when Ben Hunt was away for origin (less impressive 226m for the 2nd game Hunt missed)

New contract for Hughes?

https://wwos.nine.com.au/nrl/news-2024-canterbury-bulldogs-samuel-hughes-contract-phil-gould-exclusive/f25f8a88-73d6-4231-92d9-4e57467ae277

Milchcow wrote:Something I didn't really pay attention to in the Tigers game - how did Sullivan/Sezer split the kicking?
Stats say it was even, but was that distorted by game time and did one dominate kicking when both were on the field?

Just looking at Sullivan, and with a decent chunk of kicking he'll be alright, but otherwise probably not
Last year he kicked for 572m when Ben Hunt was away for origin (less impressive 226m for the 2nd game Hunt missed)

Has anyone done a deep dive of Sezers stats when he was in the super league.

He done less kicking when aside Wighton when he was here. Being older surely he takes on that game manager role and acts as the main kicker.

Speaking of Tigers what is the make up for the second row? Does Twal start over Kepaoa or Seyfarth? Obviously Bateman comes in, but are one of those guys starting potentially?

RandomSil wrote:
Speaking of Tigers what is the make up for the second row? Does Twal start over Kepaoa or Seyfarth? Obviously Bateman comes in, but are one of those guys starting potentially?

Bateman should come in for Kepoa when fit.

Seyfarth a chance to keep the lock starting spot, with Twal/Pole/Fainu as bench middle rotation

RandomSil wrote:

Has anyone done a deep dive of Sezers stats when he was in the super league.

He done less kicking when aside Wighton when he was here. Being older surely he takes on that game manager role and acts as the main kicker.

Speaking of Tigers what is the make up for the second row? Does Twal start over Kepaoa or Seyfarth? Obviously Bateman comes in, but are one of those guys starting potentially?

I don't think there are any Super League stats providers that log kick metres. From the eye test of the Leeds games I saw last year, he both did most of the field kicking and was garbage, if that's any help.

rhinoceroo wrote:

RandomSil wrote:

Has anyone done a deep dive of Sezers stats when he was in the super league.

He done less kicking when aside Wighton when he was here. Being older surely he takes on that game manager role and acts as the main kicker.

Speaking of Tigers what is the make up for the second row? Does Twal start over Kepaoa or Seyfarth? Obviously Bateman comes in, but are one of those guys starting potentially?

I don't think there are any Super League stats providers that log kick metres. From the eye test of the Leeds games I saw last year, he both did most of the field kicking and was garbage, if that's any help.

Hey that's an accurate description of what I would expect from him this year.

Alfie wrote:Loiero is more likely to lose 10 points than gain 10, priced at 44. Why would he get good minutes with King, Kamikamica, NAS and Welsh all in the rotation with him? Stop throwing the newcomers off.

It's finally Leinu's year...

mickspicks wrote:

It's finally Leinu's year...

I don't recall any fantasy relevant player where their 6th season was their breakout year. Would have happened before now if it was going to happen.