NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 4 - A spawning salmon appears

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:


I was going through this when thinking about Henry. 1.13PPM in reduced minutes. Leniu averaging 34 or so minutes. Probably not worth the risk and breaks the bench middle rule. So best case a wait and see

If you want a cheap bench prop, Sam Hughes seems the better target IMO

Henry is more expensive, and not as sure of minutes. Its not like the guy he is theoretically replacing got a bunch of game time every week.

my tv broke wrote:

lol i forgot you know everything

Or you could look at the facts.

Sorenson started over Garner every week when Garner was available for selection from R9, except for when Penrith gave their reserve graders a run in R27.

Don't let the facts get in the way of being an asshole for no reason.

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:

I was going through this when thinking about Henry. 1.13PPM in reduced minutes. Leniu averaging 34 or so minutes. Probably not worth the risk and breaks the bench middle rule. So best case a wait and see

That bench doesn't bode well for Henry minutes, if that is how they line up in R1. 3 MIDs that can all play 60 minutes easily and Peachey as utility.

Would want something like Garner, Luke, Henry, Smith as the bench in R1 to be considering him.

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:Anyone watch much junior league or better yet thought much about the new rules?

I’m doing SG ball for their season and into some NRL side work during the season but it’s round 4 tomorrow and the refs have been cracking down hard intentionally, with probably 3 or so downtown penalties a game.

At U19 level the players and coaches are only just working on how to adjust but I’d imagine the 1st grades sides will be more ready.

What impact on scoring does the downtown and no blockers rules have on scoring do we think? A few more run metres for the back 3?

Just like last season was the year of the CTR and a big downturn for HOK, this could be the year of the fullback.

The only potential downside is that kickers are more likely to kick the ball out of play, instead of allowing them to run it back too far.

mattnz wrote:

Or you could look at the facts.

Sorenson started over Garner every week when Garner was available for selection from R9, except for when Penrith gave their reserve graders a run in R27.

Don't let the facts get in the way of being an asshole for no reason.

He said Garner will play edge this season, and he will at some point. Injuries + Martin and Yeo playing origin. Might play some CTR too.

Milchcow wrote:

He's just so cheap compared to his potential output

His days of potential captain are no doubt behind him. but surely he can provide a bit of value from his current price.

What role do you see him playing this year. His TB dropped by about half after the first 5 games when he was transitioned. Do you think he may be given license to flick the switch this season or is he in an overly managed role again?

WT Winfield wrote:

He said Garner will play edge this season, and he will at some point. Injuries + Martin and Yeo playing origin. Might play some CTR too.

Thats not what he meant and you know it. Getting a run when Martin plays origin isn't the same as "Garner will play edge this season".

My issue wasn't that he had an opinion, just that he treated me like shit for having a different opinion, which was also Cleary's selection since R9 last season. Hardly a wild expectation.

mattnz wrote:

Or you could look at the facts.

Sorenson started over Garner every week when Garner was available for selection from R9, except for when Penrith gave their reserve graders a run in R27.

Don't let the facts get in the way of being an asshole for no reason.

While recent history is often the strongest indicator for expected events going into this year, it certainly doesn't own the future.
Injuries happen, some players improve, some fall away, team balances and structures change...

There are no actual facts about what happens in the 2024 season until it's played.
It might not be the most likely scenario, but there's certainly a world where somehow Garner ends up being a starting Panthers edge

Just some friendly advice; If you are going to state expectations as facts, you're probably going to get the odd comment that suggests that you must know everything.

Less friendly advice; you know better than to descend to petty name-calling, and previous history suggests what the likely outcome will be if you continue to do it...
Keep it nice buddy

easytiger wrote:

While recent history is often the strongest indicator for expected events going into this year, it certainly doesn't own the future.
Injuries happen, some players improve, some fall away, team balances and structures change...

There are no actual facts about what happens in the 2024 season until it's played.
It might not be the most likely scenario, but there's certainly a world where somehow Garner ends up being a starting Panthers edge

Just some friendly advice; If you are going to state expectations as facts, you're probably going to get the odd comment that suggests that you must know everything.

Less friendly advice; you know better than to descend to petty name-calling, and previous history suggests what the likely outcome will be if you continue to do it...
Keep it nice buddy

Calling someone a know it all was the name calling that started it, need to call it out.

mattnz wrote:

Thats not what he meant and you know it. Getting a run when Martin plays origin isn't the same as "Garner will play edge this season".

My issue wasn't that he had an opinion, just that he treated me like shit for having a different opinion, which was also Cleary's selection since R9 last season. Hardly a wild expectation.

Deja vu right now.

I think the point is you stated it like a fact, as if the coach had unequivocally confirmed it, rather than: "Sorenson is injured, otherwise I think/Believe/in my opinion he would have started at EDG"


Clearly I agree with you that I think Sorensen plays edge but none of us know for sure and stating it as a fact like that can be misleading for some reading the forum casually.

mattnz wrote:

Horse owned lock last season, can't see him missing out on getting that same big minute lock role back this season.

I have Smithies in my team for now but I think you're right. If the wraps on him are correct, I can see him moving in to a bigger minute role as the season progresses.

Tapine Horse at props
Smithies at lock
All can play big minutes. Allows for total destruction from the likes of Big Papa, Guler, eventually Mooney.

mattnz wrote:

Just like last season was the year of the CTR and a big downturn for HOK, this could be the year of the fullback.

The only potential downside is that kickers are more likely to kick the ball out of play, instead of allowing them to run it back too far.

Just as a point of reference on this one;
CTR did have an uptick (+2.6 fantasy points on the year before), and HOK had a downturn (-1.8 fantasy points), but I wouldn't describe either as year of the CTR or big downturn.

If you want to talk year of the... or big downturns... the real action was in the halves.
Halfbacks were up +4.5points on 2022, while 5-8th's were down -5.5points.

Even Fullbacks had a bigger uptick than Centres (+3.5points), Wings had a similar uptick to Centres with (+2.0points)

Interesting to think of WFBs who'll benefit as being a kick targets.

Take Rabbitohs - probably a preference from kickers to send the ball to AJ or (IsaacT?) instead of Trell - so no great benefit to him

But Panthers - you don't really want to give To'o a bunch of space, and Dedwards doesn't mind the work. He could benefit.

Similarly Dolphins wings (not wanting to kick to Hamiso in space), Newcastle wings (ditto Ponga, but more so). You'd much rather give it to Feldt to run it back when playing the Cows than Drinky.

Dragons - you'd rather it not go to Ravalawa, so could help Sloan/Lomax's points. Eels same - Gutho/whomever receiving the ball over Sivo.



Not saying it'll play out like this instantly, but it could be an interesting dynamic to observe.

Lolo is a hard one to get a good handle on, not sure how I feel about him really. You'd think 10pts of value should be there but who knows with Payten and how things have been trending.

It's probably either him or Tatola for me and at the moment I prefer Tatola and if I end up picking Cotter then even more so.

BCT05 wrote:

Deja vu right now.

I think the point is you stated it like a fact, as if the coach had unequivocally confirmed it, rather than: "Sorenson is injured, otherwise I think/Believe/in my opinion he would have started at EDG"


Clearly I agree with you that I think Sorensen plays edge but none of us know for sure and stating it as a fact like that can be misleading for some reading the forum casually.

Saying Luai would have started if fit would have been equally true, based on selections from last season.

Any posts on here are people's opinions, don't need to qualify that on every post.

mattnz wrote:

Thats not what he meant and you know it. Getting a run when Martin plays origin isn't the same as "Garner will play edge this season".

My issue wasn't that he had an opinion, just that he treated me like shit for having a different opinion, which was also Cleary's selection since R9 last season. Hardly a wild expectation.

Kinda proved his point though.. You know exactly what he meant and my interpretation of it.

"I'm reasonably convinced Garner will play edge this year". Yeah, he's playing edge this week. I'd look like a real fucking idiot trying to argue that.

mattnz wrote:

Saying Luai would have started if fit would have been equally true, based on selections from last season.

Any posts on here are people's opinions, don't need to qualify that on every post.

I think BCT summarised it pretty well tbh.

I would expect Garner to be a trap in R1 if named to start EDG, with Sorenson coming back to full fitness from injury, is the important point that needs to be made. Wouldn't want casuals falling into that trap because of a post here.

L-Jimmy wrote:Interesting to think of WFBs who'll benefit as being a kick targets.

Take Rabbitohs - probably a preference from kickers to send the ball to AJ or (IsaacT?) instead of Trell - so no great benefit to him

But Panthers - you don't really want to give To'o a bunch of space, and Dedwards doesn't mind the work. He could benefit.

Similarly Dolphins wings (not wanting to kick to Hamiso in space), Newcastle wings (ditto Ponga, but more so). You'd much rather give it to Feldt to run it back when playing the Cows than Drinky.

Dragons - you'd rather it not go to Ravalawa, so could help Sloan/Lomax's points. Eels same - Gutho/whomever receiving the ball over Sivo.



Not saying it'll play out like this instantly, but it could be an interesting dynamic to observe.

The kick returns potential uptick peaked my interest a bit too.
Fortunately the NRL keeps a stat tally on this;

https://www.nrl.com/stats/players/?competition=111&season=2023&stat=78

You can adjust it by average, but essentially the top loosely-relevant players are:
Edwards 72 Kick return metres per game
Kennedy 66
Tedesco 55
Bula 53
HTF, Turbo, Gutho 51

You get the idea.
It's not so easy (i.e. I'm too lazy) to further reduce that to how many kick-return events there were each game for each player, but it looks to me that they maybe will get an extra few seconds with defenders staying onside from the ruck.

I suspect maybe there's a 50% boost to those return metres i.e. could be a 3 point uptick for Edwards, and only 1 or 2 for everyone else.
Probably not enough of an event to influence any fantasy selection, but maybe enough to uptick the position as a whole by a couple of points by the end of the year (more than other positions).
I also wonder if some of the rule changes are to further increase active playing time which could then increase some stats in other positions (the middle etc?)

easytiger wrote:

Just as a point of reference on this one;
CTR did have an uptick (+2.6 fantasy points on the year before), and HOK had a downturn (-1.8 fantasy points), but I wouldn't describe either as year of the CTR or big downturn.

If you want to talk year of the... or big downturns... the real action was in the halves.
Halfbacks were up +4.5points on 2022, while 5-8th's were down -5.5points.

Even Fullbacks had a bigger uptick than Centres (+3.5points), Wings had a similar uptick to Centres with (+2.0points)

Facts