NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 16 - Tommy Talau has arrived... A year too late.

easytiger wrote:I'd almost put money on JWH starting in his 300th game and Terrell back to the bench.

Who could've imagined the buy of the week being a $574k bench middle?

That's a good point and has me questioning the trade. Maybe Fine is the better value trade? Still the same question marks on minutes though. Whatever happened to the good old days of 80 minute forwards.

easytiger wrote:

My 2c, for what it's worth, is if I were to go for a POD option (which this clearly is), I'd want it to be high reward for the higher risk
10 points of value on the condition he plays 80 every week (which he hasn't done in any kind of run for the last 2 years), seems like an unnecessary high risk for a likely low upside buy?

The flipside of the coin, is if your gut is screaming that you want to get it, then balance which regret is more;
Getting Kenny and having him fail (e.g. no upside) vs not getting him and it turns out that he was a good buy - which bad result can you live with better

How I've begun viewing decisions this year is, I assume I'm going to be wrong in either case. Now I just ask myself where would I be happier being wrong. So far I've managed to steer clear of Luki and Wong and ended up with Zac Hosking and Smithies instead.

King Assassin wrote:For the record I enjoy MattNZ's post I think he has some great insights and I always enjoy reading his perspectives. If we need someone to bully and take it out on, I'll happily put my hand up to cop it.

If you need some fuel, I started the season with both Lolo and Kiraz and I was so sure they'd be great picks. I have also posted in the past that Terrell May will only play 35 minutes in round 2 and even before that tried to make a case for Leniu being a good pick.

If you want to attack me personally instead, I play a heap of footy myself. I got dropped from HDC last year 3 rounds into the year and then only lasted a week in a cup preseason this year before getting cut after running a 6+ minute bronco. I've been single the last 3 years mainly because i'm still in love with my ex and I wear a beard to hide the fact I have no jawline.

Post of the year contender. Jawline or not, what a man

If May goes back to the bench this week and plays 40 minutes, but then in round 4 starts again - at which point do you decide you want him in your team?

His last 8 games he has averaged 59 fantasy points, and only started one of them. Currently priced at 41.

He'll regress at some point, but how much? Can't see him going back to 30 minutes a week regularly.

BCT05 wrote:

Easy to say for me as a Hosking owner already but would be very brave to bring him in now without seeing what happens on Whitehead's return.

As speculated by others on here I reckon Whitehead on the bench is a likely scenario and takes ~20mins from Hosking. 60mins of Hosking for $700k? And there is still a much worse case scenario possible where Hosking goes to the bench (yes despite the fact we can all see he is a gun player - it's Ricky).

Personally - and I promise that this is not non-owner bitterness - I think that if both Whitehead and Hosking were fit and it was a finals game, then Ricky would be naming Whitehead at 12 a hundred percent of the time.

Of course, it's early in the regular season not the post-season, but Ricky also does seem to be the type of guy who thinks every game is a final.

Hosking's played great for two games and is incredibly fantasy friendly, but let's face facts that in real life he's been a literal journeyman fringe first grader at two different clubs. Whitehead has been top-class again and again for years and even if he's on the decline, Ricky is also a loyal guy who trusts his old troops, particularly his captains. Look at what he did with Croker, who was a lot further the downslope than Whitehead.

tl:dr congrats if you got Hosking, but I wouldn't get him now unless there's news Whitehead out for 3+ more weeks.

CorruptSquid wrote:

How I've begun viewing decisions this year is, I assume I'm going to be wrong in either case. Now I just ask myself where would I be happier being wrong. So far I've managed to steer clear of Luki and Wong and ended up with Zac Hosking and Smithies instead.

I know it seems a bit of a glass-half-empty way of looking at things, but if we're right then it's all happy days nothing to worry about.

Given the game is primarily about enjoyment, if I'm on the fence I like to balance it out by looking at it with some future-me hindsight regret in each scenario

There may be games where Terrell only plays 35mins or so, but his ppm is so high that he can still score 40+ points

my tv broke wrote:

In his defense, according to Titans, he wasn't hooked, was struggling with cramp so they took him off. I guess it could be a bit of both.

Yeah you could see how bad his leg was cramping when down with the trainer for excessive amount of time. Guess figured no point running it off when they were getting battered anyway

Milchcow wrote:
If May goes back to the bench this week and plays 40 minutes, but then in round 4 starts again - at which point do you decide you want him in your team?

His last 8 games he has averaged 59 fantasy points, and only started one of them. Currently priced at 41.

He'll regress at some point, but how much? Can't see him going back to 30 minutes a week regularly.

Personally, I still think he's a buy (locked him in last week before the shift to start), but at some point he almost certainly will have a 30-40 minute game so you've just got to realise that's part of what you're getting.
I think he is a 50+ point player priced at 41 nevertheless - so that's a buy every day of the week for mine.

I do think it's worth considering he will likely be named on the bench this week (or shifted there just before the match starts) so worth considering if that's likely to spook anyone with the purchase.

People think May will be benched this week. It might happen or it might not

But Robinson doesn't strike me as the kind of person to start a guy just because its a milestone game if it will in any way hurt his chances of winning.

Milchcow wrote:
People think May will be benched this week. It might happen or it might not

But Robinson doesn't strike me as the kind of person to start a guy just because its a milestone game if it will in any way hurt his chances of winning.

I really don't think it matters if Terrell starts or not. He can get the mins either way, and as others have started, he will have lower min games. But I think he's someone who can average close to 50 once it all evens out.

Haas 2.0

easytiger wrote:

Personally, I still think he's a buy (locked him in last week before the shift to start), but at some point he almost certainly will have a 30-40 minute game so you've just got to realise that's part of what you're getting.
I think he is a 50+ point player priced at 41 nevertheless - so that's a buy every day of the week for mine.

I do think it's worth considering he will likely be named on the bench this week (or shifted there just before the match starts) so worth considering if that's likely to spook anyone with the purchase.

my tv broke wrote:

I really don't think it matters if Terrell starts or not. He can get the mins either way, and as others have started, he will have lower min games. But I think he's someone who can average close to 50 once it all evens out.

Yes, I think if you take the back end of last year combined with what we have seen over the last few weeks he is still a very decent buy.

I'll be jumping on a week (two?) late as I wanted to give my rabble an extra week to redeem themselves.....it was a mistake.

Milchcow wrote:
People think May will be benched this week. It might happen or it might not

But Robinson doesn't strike me as the kind of person to start a guy just because its a milestone game if it will in any way hurt his chances of winning.

This is true, but I don't think you get named in his 17 if he thinks you're a chance of hurting his chances of winning.

They are so big on culture and being a Rooster (especially single club players) that the trickle-down of meaning is more important than any marginal gain (and Terrell has only started one game so far... which they lost)

What have we settled on anyway? TayMay and Termaynator? Cant't get on board with these Bodyslam shenanigans.

Wildbux wrote:

Sure thing mate:

Grant
Haas Murray Smithies
Wong Piakura
Cleary Hutch
Strange Burbo
Paps Walsh Raps
Whirlwind Salmon Galvin Chan
Levi Kini Flanno Hughes

$60K ITB

Geez. I wish my team looked as healthy as your.
(Edit: Except Hutch, he's a plodder)

Aardvark wrote:

Yes, I think if you take the back end of last year combined with what we have seen over the last few weeks he is still a very decent buy.

I'll be jumping on a week (two?) late as I wanted to give my rabble an extra week to redeem themselves.....it was a mistake.

I avoided him in my initial team, because often players that finish a year on a massive high don't carry that into the next season.
In general I think this policy works more often than it fails.

But in this case it seems pretty clear Terrell is a fantasy gun who will get decent minutes, so he's almost certainly a trade in this week.


One of the rules about "fun" fantasy is that it is always more fun to sit there watching a guy rack up the points than it is to hide behind the couch every time he gets the ball because you don't own him and he's about to go massive.

Chewie wrote:Might go double cow this week
Luki to FF
Sitili to Galvin

Will give me almost 500k itb

The Force is strong with this one.
"These are the cows you've been looking for."

ytsb wrote:

It’s incredible that you’ve reached senior years but still carry on like a teenager.

But, the Rabbit is entertaining. I'll give him that.
And he does have a massive pool.

On both May and Kenny for that matter, is 100k of upside worth a trade for a non-keeper?

Maybe I'm trying too hard to force trades.

Kenny back in the bin. Not taking May either.

I'm sticking with May and Lussick, but it means playing Jackie Chan. I've got a feeling he might be bench and that will throw a spanner in the works. NAS is back this week?