2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

Welshy wrote:Thanks for that other team planner, been fucking about with a no Smith option...

Luke, McCullough
Tolman, Gurgess, Sipley, Cowboy Prop
Merrin, Surgess, Friz, Elliott, Arrow, Capewell
Norman, Api K, Elgey, Rookie
Chambers, Idris, CScott, RJennings
Tedesco, RTS, Hayne, Uate, Rookie

overbudget slightly

First draft of about 100. No Smith though I'm pretty sure I'll run with him in the end, and 3/4s need some work...

McCullough, Peats
McGuire, Gurgess, JWallace, (Perrett)
Surgess (c), Taupau, Klemmer, KBrom, (LLeulia, Capewell)
SJ, Norman, Elgey (Hampton)
Idris, BKelly, (RJennings, CScott)
RTS, Hayne, Slater, (Phythian, Drew)

21k

Out of all the young Hookers I think Brailey is the only one I would go near if he jagged the starting spot, but then again its a big risk.

We need to do a player analysis for Hookers and Halves.

Hookers - Smith, McInnes, Hodgson, Farah, McCullough, Peats and I Luke. At this stage I have the first two. I have ruled out J Friend on price versus expected output, Lichaa on no change to circumstances, and Rein due to competing with Wallace for time.

Halves - Norman, DCE, Cleary, Johnson, A Reynolds. I have the first two but the other three have all been in consideration.

Added the following links to the front page

Honey Badger's team picker site
http://www.azwebsolutions.co.nz/teampicker.php

Milchcow's team planner (still draft version with incorrect prices, has all 2016 stats though)
http://www.mediafire.com/file/t8gqrkac3r1tomk/2017+Team+Planner+v0.1.xlsm

Milchcow's Price Change Predictor
https://www.mediafire.com/?b6c5cy0c1941i4g

Lot of potential value at centre. I think most teams will have atleast 2 of these in their centres to start the year
Walker 317k
Hurrell 311k
Sione 299k
Gray 295k
Jennings 293k
Chambers 288k
Whare 205k
Idris 194k

Anyone like Coote as a bounce back candidate? Biggest regression between 2015 and 2016 was his run metres dropping from 138 to 72 per game. Also few attacking stats were lost (line breaks down from 10 to 4, tackle breaks down from 3.1 to 1.9 per game). The point that makes me consider him is kick metres and touches staying pretty similar meaning he was kept in the same role. Without running through game footage it my guess is he stopped returning kicks and started handing the ball off to Winterstein and Feldt. Can any Cowboys fans confirm this?

Things are heating up on this thread

First Draft:
Smith, McCullough
McGuire, JWH, Gurgess, (Hoare)
Gallen, Hess, Arrow, (Stimpson, Knight, Asiata)
Norman, Maloney, Sezer, (Elgey)
Hurrell, Whare, (Idris, Scott)
RTS, Coote, Hayne, (Uate, Phythian)

17k left over

Went a bit to heavy in the backs with Idris and Uate both wasting money on the pine. 2nd row feel light and no real upside in the halves would see me stuck with mid rangers. McGuire being DPP would give the pack a bit of balance.

Second Draft:

Smith, Hodgson
McGuire, JWH, Gurgess, (Hoare)
Gallen, Cordner, Hess, (Stimpson, Asiata, Capewell)
Norman, McCrone, Elgey, (Rookie)
Chambers, Whare, (Idris, Rjennings)
RTS, Hayne, Uate, (Drew, Phythian)

44k left over

Feels a reserve short but got a bit of cash to work with. At this stage Asiata, Hoare or Idris would be 4th reserve unless I upgrade one to Arrow

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Lot of potential value at centre. I think most teams will have atleast 2 of these in their centres to start the year
Walker 317k
Hurrell 311k
Sione 299k
Gray 295k
Jennings 293k
Chambers 288k
Whare 205k
Idris 194k

Walker, Hurrell and Idris would be my picks of this lot.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:First Draft:
Smith, McCullough
McGuire, JWH, Gurgess, (Hoare)
Gallen, Hess, Arrow, (Stimpson, Knight, Asiata)
Norman, Maloney, Sezer, (Elgey)
Hurrell, Whare, (Idris, Scott)
RTS, Coote, Hayne, (Uate, Phythian)

17k left over

Went a bit to heavy in the backs with Idris and Uate both wasting money on the pine. 2nd row feel light and no real upside in the halves would see me stuck with mid rangers. McGuire being DPP would give the pack a bit of balance.

Second Draft:

Smith, Hodgson
McGuire, JWH, Gurgess, (Hoare)
Gallen, Cordner, Hess, (Stimpson, Asiata, Capewell)
Norman, McCrone, Elgey, (Rookie)
Chambers, Whare, (Idris, Rjennings)

RTS, Hayne, Uate, (Drew, Phythian)

44k left over

Feels a reserve short but got a bit of cash to work with. At this stage Asiata, Hoare or Idris would be 4th reserve unless I upgrade one to Arrow

I like team 1 much more.
Like the two gun hooker strategy, is a lot safer than gambling on a rookie.
Good picks in McGuire and Gurgess. Don't see the love for JWH. If you are wanting value in the Roosters pack pick Nat Butcher in the second row. With Moa gone and TKO out for first five rounds he will be a good little earner I feel.
Gallen is a good pick if he doesn't get injured. I will look to get him for the first two byes. All value picks if playing and with salary cap tighter I will probably go for players like Arrow, Tevita Pangai Jnr, Nat Butcher etc
Norman, pretty much the only gun in the Eels averaging near 50. I have him. Not sure on Maloney but with Ennis and Barba gone maybe he picks up again. My feeling is that Chad Townsend is the problem here for his scores.
All value picks, would much prefer a gun and three rookies than three midrangers.
Not keen on Uate because he is a winger, I tend to try pick fullbacks or centres. In saying that, he could jag a few tries but doubt Dylan Walker will pass him the ball. Also Coote is a strange pick.

Warriors wrote:

I like team 1 much more.
Like the two gun hooker strategy, is a lot safer than gambling on a rookie.
Good picks in McGuire and Gurgess. Don't see the love for JWH. If you are wanting value in the Roosters pack pick Nat Butcher in the second row. With Moa gone and TKO out for first five rounds he will be a good little earner I feel.
Gallen is a good pick if he doesn't get injured. I will look to get him for the first two byes. All value picks if playing and with salary cap tighter I will probably go for players like Arrow, Tevita Pangai Jnr, Nat Butcher etc
Norman, pretty much the only gun in the Eels averaging near 50. I have him. Not sure on Maloney but with Ennis and Barba gone maybe he picks up again. My feeling is that Chad Townsend is the problem here for his scores.
All value picks, would much prefer a gun and three rookies than three midrangers.
Not keen on Uate because he is a winger, I tend to try pick fullbacks or centres. In saying that, he could jag a few tries but doubt Dylan Walker will pass him the ball. Also Coote is a strange pick.

Definitely going to run with Smith+ gun second Hooker. Not sure if it will be Friend/McCullough/Peats/Hodgson

I think JWH has a bit of value in him. Coming back from knee injury last year his average minutes, tackles and run metres were similar to 2015. Once JWH returned to the starting spot he averaged 53.5 minutes (including an concussion shortened 19 minute game, average of 57 minutes without that game) for 36.5 points(38.6 when removing injured game) with almost 0 attacking stats (0.8 tackle busts vs 1.4 2015, 0.9 offloads vs 1.73 2015) and nearly doubling his missed tackle rate(3.2 v 1.15 2015). With the loss of Moa I can see JWH returning to previous form. Don't like the Butcher pick. Butcher, Tetevano and Liam Knight will be fighting for 1 spot in the full strength 17 and may be rotated depending on opponent. Full strength Roosters pack will be something like 8.JWH 9. Friend 10.Evans 11.Cordner 12.Guerra 13.Liu 14.Watson/Matterson 15.Aubbo 16.Tauk 17.Butcher/Tetevano/Knight/Carter/Vunaceke
Hard to tell who will benefit from Tauk's injury from that lot.

Will probably end up running one of Arrow/Pangai JNR depending on trials and team lists.
Yeah not very happy with Maloney as I don't see much room for growth but there really aren't many decent options in the values. May lead to running 2 guns McCrone and Elgey to avoid a dead position early.

I'm going with this atm. Going with no Smith. 12k in bank.
Luke (C. King/Brailey)
McGuire, Vaughan, Kasiano (Liam Knight)
Surgess, Cartwright, K-Brom, A. Glenn, Hess (Stimson)
SJ, Maloney, Elgey (Hampton)
Sione Mata'utia, C. Scott (B. Kelly, Drew)
Cody Walker, RTS, Hayne (R. Jennings, Phythian/Dylan Edwards)

Just realised I don't have great captaincy choices without C. Smith so I made 2 changes = Luke becomes C. Smith & Cody Walker becomes Holmes.

Warriors wrote:

Walker, Hurrell and Idris would be my picks of this lot.

Is Hurrell fit to start the season?

rhinoceroo wrote:

Is Hurrell fit to start the season?

He'll miss the nines, but should be ok after that

I'm considering Mitchell Moses as a wildcard, he seems to be improving each season
2014 avg 21.2
2015 avg 32.5 (Last 5 avg 42)
2016 avg 39.4 (Last 5 avg 51.2)

Chewie wrote:I'm considering Mitchell Moses as a wildcard, he seems to be improving each season
2014 avg 21.2
2015 avg 32.5 (Last 5 avg 42)
2016 avg 39.4 (Last 5 avg 51.2)

I was looking at him but with souths (a), panthers (h), raiders (a), storm (h) in the first 4 games I can't really see him doing that well. Moses is also error prone & misses tackles so with this early schedule it could result in poor scores.

For Moses its his scores with/without Farah in the team that are the biggest benefit.

Now that Farah is 100% out of the picture he could well be a safe option

Last year. Moses without Farah averaged 44
Moses with Farah averaged 31

Hopefully big Jamal will be the Moses bodyguard on the field & protect him from having to make too many tackles.

I like the idea of Coote bouncing back MS, but only in real life. Couldn't start with him but hopefully he gets his mojo back.

Chewie wrote:I'm considering Mitchell Moses as a wildcard, he seems to be improving each season
2014 avg 21.2
2015 avg 32.5 (Last 5 avg 42)
2016 avg 39.4 (Last 5 avg 51.2)

Yeah ive got my eye on him too