2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

Warriors wrote:

I don't think so. He may get the first 45-50 at second row, have a spell with Kaufusi coming on to play the rest of the game, then come back on the middle for the last 15 or something for Finucane. To me, K Brom is more suited to a middle spot so it will be interesting what the rotation will be and how his scoring will be. My feeling is that whoever gets the starting spot they will play between 60-65 minutes and no more.

Interesting that KBrom's PPM drops significantly with minutes over 45. In 14 games last year he played less than 45 minutes for an average score of 29 in 33 minutes (0.8788 PPM). In 10 games he played 45 minutes or more for an average score of 40 from 56 minutes (0.7143 PPM).

By my calculations he will score anywhere from an average of 36-46 with the range being for how much an impact playing on the edge instead of in the middle has on his scoring. My best guess is that he will average around 40 which is a good return for a player priced at 34.

Nice analysis. Are Storm playing World Club Challenge and do you think they will bring their best team so we get a peak at their plans?

White Lightning wrote:

I really like your team mate. Get rid of Slater though as he's too risky. The word is he won't even play round 1. Even if Slater does play how long will he last.

Yeah originally wanted Holmes but was having trouble getting him in. If Hurrell's fit though should be able to downgrade Turbo for him and get Holmes

mulvy wrote:

Nice analysis. Are Storm playing World Club Challenge and do you think they will bring their best team so we get a peak at their plans?

Think it is just warrington vs broncos and Wigan vs Sharks. 18 & 19 February

Broncoes game will be interesting for forward rotation and also sharks hooker and fullback spots.

mulvy wrote:

Yeah originally wanted Holmes but was having trouble getting him in. If Hurrell's fit though should be able to downgrade Turbo for him and get Holmes

Only do this if Turbo is on the wing because you will regret not having him

Regarding Macca I'm not sold on him either but if Titans run without a bench utility is an easy swap to Peats. My other thought is that CP13 leaves a big hole in the middle and that at times Macca may stay on the field for some extra minutes when Nikorima comes on for his defence.

Warriors wrote:

Only do this if Turbo is on the wing because you will regret not having him

Yeah I think Turbo is a keeper in the centres. Hurrell could be too potentially. What's this I hear about Snake coming back, pie in the sky?

Warriors wrote:

I don't think so. He may get the first 45-50 at second row, have a spell with Kaufusi coming on to play the rest of the game, then come back on the middle for the last 15 or something for Finucane. To me, K Brom is more suited to a middle spot so it will be interesting what the rotation will be and how his scoring will be. My feeling is that whoever gets the starting spot they will play between 60-65 minutes and no more.

Interesting that KBrom's PPM drops significantly with minutes over 45. In 14 games last year he played less than 45 minutes for an average score of 29 in 33 minutes (0.8788 PPM). In 10 games he played 45 minutes or more for an average score of 40 from 56 minutes (0.7143 PPM).

By my calculations he will score anywhere from an average of 36-46 with the range being for how much an impact playing on the edge instead of in the middle has on his scoring. My best guess is that he will average around 40 which is a good return for a player priced at 34.

I'm more interested in KBrom being the guy outside Cronk in Melbourne's very specific system. Whoever plays there it guarantees the line breaks and tries...think it's more useful to look at Proctor's PPM from last year than anything KBrom did in a different role.

Warriors wrote:

What are your thoughts on McInnes at the Dragons. I reckon he will be an 80 minute hooker. Fit and strong and can break tackles.

With a heap of forwards like Packer, LAM, T Sims, Frizzell to be managed with his back injury, JDB broken wrist etc reckon they will have a four forward bench and not bother with Havilli to start the year. Could easily average 60 playing 80 minutes especially if he can jag the odd try which he likes to do. Thinking him and Vaughan will be big signings for the Dragons.

Of all the hookers (excluding Smith) McInnes imo has the best chance playing 80 minutes. I agree with you in that I think the Dragons will maybe run with 4 forwards on the bench. The only scenario to worry about is if K. Mann starts in the halves (Hutchison out for season with acl) & they run with McCrone as a utility off the bench. However the word is McCrone will be in the halves so they might go with no bench utilility.

rhinoceroo wrote:

I'm more interested in KBrom being the guy outside Cronk in Melbourne's very specific system. Whoever plays there it guarantees the line breaks and tries...think it's more useful to look at Proctor's PPM from last year than anything KBrom did in a different role.

There's every chance that Harris could swap to the right edge outside Cronk & K-Brom starts on the left edge. This is why I'm really considering Harris.

Warriors wrote:

I don't think so. He may get the first 45-50 at second row, have a spell with Kaufusi coming on to play the rest of the game, then come back on the middle for the last 15 or something for Finucane. To me, K Brom is more suited to a middle spot so it will be interesting what the rotation will be and how his scoring will be. My feeling is that whoever gets the starting spot they will play between 60-65 minutes and no more.

Interesting that KBrom's PPM drops significantly with minutes over 45. In 14 games last year he played less than 45 minutes for an average score of 29 in 33 minutes (0.8788 PPM). In 10 games he played 45 minutes or more for an average score of 40 from 56 minutes (0.7143 PPM).

By my calculations he will score anywhere from an average of 36-46 with the range being for how much an impact playing on the edge instead of in the middle has on his scoring. My best guess is that he will average around 40 which is a good return for a player priced at 34.

Nice Analysis, but he did play different positions in these instances. His big minute games were played on the edge and the lower minutes games were played in the middle coming from the bench. I'd like to see his scores throughout the year for further research, I think he has potential. In the latest fox podcast it was said Kaufusi had been training in the backrow

White Lightning wrote:However the word is McCrone will be in the halves so they might go with no bench utilility.

well i can certainly excuse any dragons fans for not being excited about 2017

White Lightning wrote:

There's every chance that Harris could swap to the right edge outside Cronk & K-Brom starts on the left edge. This is why I'm really considering Harris.

I'd consider Harris in those circumstances too, even at a high price. Will be interesting to see how they line up in the WCC.

my tv broke wrote:

well i can certainly excuse any dragons fans for not being excited about 2017

Yeah it's going to be carnage with the Dragons up against Penrith in round 1. Merrin (ex Dragon), Cartwright, Cleary could all get monster scores in this game.

Honeysett wrote:

I would imagine the following

8 Jarrod Wallace
9 Nathan Peats
10 Ryan James
11 Zeb Taia
12 Kevin Proctor
13 Agnatius Paasi

Interchange:  
14 Eddy Pettybourne
15 Leivaha Pulu
16 Chris McQueen
17 Ryan Simpkins/David Shillington

However they could drop out someone like Pettybourne and add in Tyrone Roberts/Elgey depending on how they shape up.

Passi had shoulder surgery before christmas and will likely miss the first month of football so I reckon McQueen will start at lock as he has experience there, and yes Roberts/ Elgey will likely get a bench spot

bluetige wrote:

Nice Analysis, but he did play different positions in these instances. His big minute games were played on the edge and the lower minutes games were played in the middle coming from the bench. I'd like to see his scores throughout the year for further research, I think he has potential. In the latest fox podcast it was said Kaufusi had been training in the backrow

OK, diving in a little deeper. 6 games last year he started at 2rf for an average of 40 in 61 minutes played. Round 3 (Tohu Centre), 4 (Proctor DNP), 14 (Tohu 5/, 15 (Tohu 5/, rounds 24 and 25 (Proctor DNP). He was consistently around the 40 point mark in 60 minutes. This is what I would expect from him so possible about a 40-60K increase in price. Not a bad pick but also not the greatest as will require a trade and is still only a mid range score. If he jags a few tries then this could push to 45 average.

There are a lot of these prospects of players averaging 30-35 last year ( around the 300-350K bracket) that can push into the 42-38 bracket this year.

J Wallace
M Prior
D Saifiti
K Bromwich
G Burgess - although could average 50 and has got good byes

We just have to be careful not to pick too many as they most probably will all require a trade as won't hit keeper status.

I'm more interested in picking players like Arrow and Tevita Pangai Jnr, Nat Butcher etc as they will make as much money as these guys and you can pick up a few more guns.

are we down to six interchanges this season? is that confirmed or am i imagining it?

my tv broke wrote:are we down to six interchanges this season? is that confirmed or am i imagining it?

No still 8

mulvy wrote:

Not sold on Asiata. Struggled to make the side last year. I see a bigger role for Bolts and Hess, Lowe and Cooper are already 80 min players when fit. Scott will play much the same. Lolo i think will probably increase from 50 to maybe 55 min or more. Hoare/Kafusi for decent minutes. Leaving Asiata to continue getting 20-25 min when he makes the side. Just my gut feeling.

Yeah tough to work out the Cowboys rotation. Will all depend on how Hess is used.

Warriors wrote:

OK, diving in a little deeper. 6 games last year he started at 2rf for an average of 40 in 61 minutes played. Round 3 (Tohu Centre), 4 (Proctor DNP), 14 (Tohu 5/, 15 (Tohu 5/, rounds 24 and 25 (Proctor DNP). He was consistently around the 40 point mark in 60 minutes. This is what I would expect from him so possible about a 40-60K increase in price. Not a bad pick but also not the greatest as will require a trade and is still only a mid range score. If he jags a few tries then this could push to 45 average.

There are a lot of these prospects of players averaging 30-35 last year ( around the 300-350K bracket) that can push into the 42-38 bracket this year.

J Wallace
M Prior
D Saifiti
K Bromwich
G Burgess - although could average 50 and has got good byes

We just have to be careful not to pick too many as they most probably will all require a trade as won't hit keeper status.

I'm more interested in picking players like Arrow and Tevita Pangai Jnr, Nat Butcher etc as they will make as much money as these guys and you can pick up a few more guns.

Apart from Prior, your watching the same as me. (I don't think Prior will continue his late season form because Tagaetese is back, be careful

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Yeah tough to work out the Cowboys rotation. Will all depend on how Hess is used.

Hess will be an out & out gun if he plays 80 on the edge. Just to confuse matters further re who'll replace Tamou there is a theory going around that the Cowboys could move Taumalolo to the front row rotation, Lowe to lock & Hess to right edge. If this happens Lowe could also be a good pick at lock.
Also while we've been focusing on the Tamou options maybe the best value pick might be the forward who'll pick up Hannant's 37 minutes off the bench so this brings P. Kaufusi, Hoare & Spina onto the radar as well.