2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

Mr Fernando wrote:

Welshy wrote:

The Master of Karate has returned!

Welcome back fella!

White Lightning wrote:

G'day mate.

Hey mates!  

Im working my way through this thread, good to see the veterans, the new blood, the spreadsheet/stats gurus (and of course the big softie ) all back in force.

I'm up to page 20 and I don't think I've seen MAUBS mentioned once. Is the trap finally over in 2017?

Ok latest draft is a Segeyaro plays for Sharks and is 375k or less draft.

Smith Segs
Gurgess Wallace Offa Hoare
Surgess McGuire ETaylor Satautia 143 138
SJ Norman Elgey 138
Idris 143 143 138
RTS Turbo Hayne 143 138

God fucking help me I am actually starting to look at Ballin at that price...

If Segeyaro is priced based on his 2016 scoring, he'll be $254k.

They may give him a price bump (Dean Whare and Billy Slater got one, but Jarryd Hayne didn't)

But you'd almost have to get him if he is that price.

segeyaro would be a no brainer for 254k

I reckon they will definitely bump his price. I've got Korosaiu place holding on my planner. If he comes in around 300 I could maybe spend the remainder in FRF or bring in Slater and move Turbo to the centres

Pookus McFly wrote:that said, where is our list of kickers? Maybe it has already been posted and I missed it. Some I am really not sure on, much-needed corrections are welcome

Broncos- Kahu/Milford
Raiders- Sezer
Bulldogs- Mbye/Holland
Roosters- Gordon
Rabbitohs- Reynolds
Dragons- Widdop
Knights- Hodkinson
Coyboys- Thurston
Titans- Roberts/Taylor
Sharks- Maloney
Storm- Smith
Tigers- Moses
Warriors- Johnson
Panters- Moylan
Sea Eagles- Walker?
Eels- Gutherson?

Your post got lost in the excitement of creating Phantom teams but I will add:
Croker is the preferred kicker at the Raiders
Holland had preference over Mbye last year
Matthew Wright done some kicking for the Eagles last year but if he is not in the team then DCE will hopefully get the duties, not 100% sure but he can kick.
Tigers, Moses is shit but Rankin is Poo too, but might find himself the chief kicker if he manages a starting spot.
Eels ?????????

On GK,

If Hastings makes the Manly team he'll kick, otherwise I believe Wright will be the guy.

Shaun Johnson lost kicking duties to Luke back half of last year. Will he get them back or is Luke now the man?

Moses knees weren't 100% last year which is why he wasn't always the kicker - not sure if that has changed over the off-season.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Looks more like a supercoach team to me

Yes indeed mate. I'm having a go at sc this year & have been on sc forums the last couple of weeks. I think the lines have been blurred haha. However I still like it. I've picked my team based on the opening 3-4 rounds to get away to a good start hence the warriors, panthers, souths & titans players.

White Lightning wrote:

Yes indeed mate. I'm having a go at sc this year & have been on sc forums the last couple of weeks. I think the lines have been blurred haha. However I still like it. I've picked my team based on the opening 3-4 rounds to get away to a good start hence the warriors, panthers, souths & titans players.

You sure the Warriors are the right team to be stacking early in the year?

Krump wrote:
You sure the Warriors are the right team to be stacking early in the year?

With the Knights at home in round 1 you bet. The only one who is a punt is Luke. I'm sure he'll rack up the points against the Knights. I'm hoping the Warriors click v Knights in round 1 & carry that form v Storm in round 2.
On the Warriors. Apparently Matulino got a knee injury in training & having mri scan.

A few people have Ben Hampton as a cheapie half.

His average fantasy score as an interchange player at Melbourne is 14.2 (in 21 minutes)

If he gets the utility role at the Cowboys and maintains that average he is going to lose you money.
Exactly how much he loses depends on what the min price cutoff is this year.

Hey guys,

Im trying to catch up on this thread and have a couple questions, Milchcow, it seems you are the go to guy so hopefully you can help me out.
1) what is the formula or website you guys are using to assign a players price to how that equates to their scoring average (and visa versa)? I'm interested in looking at guys that are under/overvalued etc.
2) On that, is there somewhere I can find an up to date price list of players? And more generally what is the state of player prices? are some out and some not?
3) it seems some guys are getting "bumped" in price - is there any rhyme or reason to this?

Thanks in advance!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Hey guys,

Im trying to catch up on this thread and have a couple questions, Milchcow, it seems you are the go to guy so hopefully you can help me out.
1) what is the formula or website you guys are using to assign a players price to how that equates to their scoring average (and visa versa)? I'm interested in looking at guys that are under/overvalued etc.
2) On that, is there somewhere I can find an up to date price list of players? And more generally what is the state of player prices? are some out and some not?
3) it seems some guys are getting "bumped" in price - is there any rhyme or reason to this?

Thanks in advance!

There are a couple of links on Page 1 that should help you.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Hey guys,
1) what is the formula or website you guys are using to assign a players price to how that equates to their scoring average (and visa versa)? I'm interested in looking at guys that are under/overvalued etc.

Players price is determined by their 2016 average * 9475, rounded to the nearest thousand.
Players that played less than 10 games are given a 3% discount for every game less than 10 they played
eg If someone only played 8 games in 2016, they get a 6% discount. 3 games = 21% discount

Minimum price is $138k for true rookies. $143k for guys who have played NRL before and $134k for guys named Joe Stimpson
(that last one may just be a typo on the Storm club profile)

Players that come from England are given some sort of score based on their Super League performance.
Exact pricing formula for these guys is hard to work out and there are factors other than Super League scores that seem to come into it. So there's not much that can be done to predict it.
eg Zeb Taia was more expensive than Elliot Whitehead last year, despite Whitehead having much better Super League stats. My best guess is that Taia's prior NRL experience was somehow counted in his price.


If you want to apply it in reverse just divide a player's price by 9475, and that is their "priced average"
In basic terms if they score more than their priced average they'll make money.

2) On that, is there somewhere I can find an up to date price list of players? And more generally what is the state of player prices? are some out and some not?

NRL.com has posted fantasy previews for all clubs with a list of player prices

You can find them here. All clubs main squads have been released. A few rookies and such not listed, nor guys like Segeyaro who are not NRL players yet

http://www.nrl.com/fantasy/insiderinformation/nrlfantasyfeatures/tabid/10985/default.aspx

Honey Badger's team selector lets you have a go at  making a team with all published prices so far
http://www.azwebsolutions.co.nz/teampicker.php

3) it seems some guys are getting "bumped" in price - is there any rhyme or reason to this?

Guys who have been bumped in price.
Billy Slater, Dean Whare, Matt Ballin, Shaun Lane (possibly others)

All had good fantasy seasons in 2015 but had limited appearances in 2016. Lane/Whare/Slater played just 1 game, Ballin played 1 game and 5 minutes
They were all set to be minimum price but are instead in the vicinity of $200k instead


Guys who have been given a discount

Jonus Pearson , Josh Chudleigh, Reimiss Smith and Brodie Croft all played 1 game in 2016, scored well, and had their price reduced to $236k. All more than a 27% discount, their nominal prices were between $280k and $401k

Drew Hutchison played 1 game scored 64 and was given a 51% discount to be $296k (a 27% discount would have seen him at $442k)

Jahrome Hughes played 1 game, scored 52 and was given a 27% discount to be priced at $349k


No idea why Hughes and Hutchison were priced differently to their other 1 game wonder brothers.


Hope that helps.

Thats well written Milch, is there some way of Bookmarking that or placing it on page 1 because more people will want to know that when they first login, and I'm sure you will eventually get sick of answering the same question

bluetige wrote:
Your post got lost in the excitement of creating Phantom teams but I will add:
Croker is the preferred kicker at the Raiders
Holland had preference over Mbye last year
Matthew Wright done some kicking for the Eagles last year but if he is not in the team then DCE will hopefully get the duties, not 100% sure but he can kick.
Tigers, Moses is shit but Rankin is Poo too, but might find himself the chief kicker if he manages a starting spot.
Eels ?????????

Aha, how could I forget a sharpshooter like Croker!
I don't remember DCE taking too many conversions, thought when Lyon was out it went to Walker
Eels always a mystery what the fuck they doing

Milchcow wrote:
A few people have Ben Hampton as a cheapie half.

His average fantasy score as an interchange player at Melbourne is 14.2 (in 21 minutes)

If he gets the utility role at the Cowboys and maintains that average he is going to lose you money.
Exactly how much he loses depends on what the min price cutoff is this year.

He is only a few dollars off basement price and well worth the punt as a slow burning cow. May not skyrocket, but only needs to jag a try to get the ball rolling and make some coin. The biggest thing is that there are few other cheapie halves. Aside from Elgey, the next most interesting player would be around the 276k mark for me, which is far too expensive for an NPR. It would either be him or picking Lachlan Croker and hoping for an injury (and that they don't just use Whitehead again). I will pick a player who takes the field every time, especially for 156k.

Pookus McFly wrote:

He is only a few dollars off basement price and well worth the punt as a slow burning cow. May not skyrocket, but only needs to jag a try to get the ball rolling and make some coin. The biggest thing is that there are few other cheapie halves. Aside from Elgey, the next most interesting player would be around the 276k mark for me, which is far too expensive for an NPR. It would either be him or picking Lachlan Croker and hoping for an injury (and that they don't just use Whitehead again). I will pick a player who takes the field every time, especially for 156k.

The simple answer to this problem for me is a reshuffle of the squad to make Elgey the 4th half and having 3 halves in the 17. Gotta work with the options we have been given until an injury pops up in all stars/trials/9s

Pookus McFly wrote:

He is only a few dollars off basement price and well worth the punt as a slow burning cow. May not skyrocket, but only needs to jag a try to get the ball rolling and make some coin. The biggest thing is that there are few other cheapie halves. Aside from Elgey, the next most interesting player would be around the 276k mark for me, which is far too expensive for an NPR. It would either be him or picking Lachlan Croker and hoping for an injury (and that they don't just use Whitehead again). I will pick a player who takes the field every time, especially for 156k.

My point is that unless he gets a starting spot, not only will he fail to generate cash slowly, he will actively lose you money. You will literally be better off buying someone who doesn't play first grade.

He'd need a lot more than jagging a try in a big scoring game to make any cash to be worth trading him out.