2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 7

Milchcow wrote:

Difficult, but not impossible.
There was some warning before last year that Smith would get a rest.

Difference last year was that, if you ignore getting rested and injured, Smith was still going to be down 4 games due to origin and byes. Some players woudl only miss 2 (and if those 2 were minor bye rounds then it could be easily covered)

This year everyone misses 1 or 2 bye rounds. Nobody plays both and origin players only miss 1 extra game.

If you have a non Smith hooker are you going to
a) swap him to a different hooker after 1st bye and then stick with the new hooker all year?
b) swap him to a new hooker for 1 bye and bring him back in afterwards.
c) hold him anyway and b down a player in 1 of the byes

None of those situations are much different to just holding Smith through all byes (assuming he misses just the 2 games)

my tv broke wrote:

White Lightning wrote:I bet the Tigers will be looking forward to playing Tedesco in round 1 so they can smash him & knock him the phuck out. That'll teach him for deserting the boys. Mind you they have to catch him first.

None of the 2018 Tigers were even at the club last year.

Speedball Deluxe wrote:

I've got 462K left over. My strategy is every player in my side, except Smith, is undervalued (I believe). That leaves plenty of money left over. I could of course upgrade say Whitehead to Brown, and Liu to Taupau and POOF, now I'm left with only 64k. Those players (Brown/Taupau) might score better and are more of a 'sure thing' but they have no value at a $ per point figure (they are already maxed out) compared to the potential upside I see in Whitehead and Liu. I'm comfortable starting with only 1 genuine gun (Smith for Captain) and 460k left over. Gives me plenty of money to fix up anyone that doesn't turn into a money tree after a few rounds. This might blow up in my face, but I feel it makes sense.

EDIT: When taking the approach with so many players who are cheap, but risky picks (eg Katoa/Latu//H.Hunt/Kennar etc) it is going to be a lot easier (i.e. less trades required) to fix them up when you have plenty of money left over. If you've blown all your cash and have none left as backup its going to be a lot harder to go Katoa to Dufty in 1 trade for example.

EDIT 2: Could be talking out my arse here as the best I've ever finished was like 900. So probably don't follow my lead

Random wrote:Heads up for anyone lurking or signing up to the forums. There was an issue with the activation of accounts which is now fixed.

Milchcow wrote:
If you give up $450k, that is a theoretical 30 points a week you are sacrificing from your team. No small change and you'd better be confident you can catch up the lead you'll be giving away.

Revraiser wrote:No one keen on Gosiewski at his price ?

Revraiser wrote:

I cant agree with the points behind or extra trades required scenario. Theres no reason why the selected team ive got doesnt outscore teams who spent more and dont score higher. And as far as trades... def no. We will all need to trade to improve, and if u have cash u can jump on whoever looks like gold in the early rounds. Not that its all clear cut i know.

Milchcow wrote:

There is a very good reason - you are over estimating the rise that most of your players will see in scoring.

SI wrote:

Something Milchy said years ago has always stuck in my mind-one of the keys is finding the most undervalued players with the biggest room for improvement.  Sounds obvious but how you go about that is the hard bit.  When we have the stats that we do now it is a but easier but still luck and prediction involved.

Milchcow wrote:

Its not just that thought.

if you could find 21 $228k players who all averaged 30-35 points you could make a shitload of money. But your scores would be so poor that you wouldn't be able to do anything useful with that money.

But yes, knowing that you have to pick the most undervalued players, and actually picking them are 2 different things. Guaranteed there are players that most people here have disregarded that will go on to have killer years this year. And a few players that people here think are awesome that are just going to flop.

Fortitude wrote:

Milchcow wrote:

Its not just that thought.

if you could find 21 $228k players who all averaged 30-35 points you could make a shitload of money. But your scores would be so poor that you wouldn't be able to do anything useful with that money.

But yes, knowing that you have to pick the most undervalued players, and actually picking them are 2 different things. Guaranteed there are players that most people here have disregarded that will go on to have killer years this year. And a few players that people here think are awesome that are just going to flop.

Isn't the point of saving bank at the start of season, an extension to this? So when you inevitably choose the wrong cash cow, you have funds to jump on with out potentially weakening elsewhere.

*obviously it only works if you run a combo of established players and potential cows

Fortitude wrote:

Isn't the point of saving bank at the start of season, an extension to this? So when you inevitably choose the wrong cash cow, you have funds to jump on with out potentially weakening elsewhere.

*obviously it only works if you run a combo of established players and potential cows

Milchcow wrote:

Saving some money at the start of the season can be useful

eg lets just say you start with Richard Kennar ($228k) and he scores poorly round 1 and doesn't rise in price.

And you want to switch to Lachlan Croker who has killed it and is now $245k

If you have $0 in the bank, you'll need to get that $17k by downgrading elsewhere. If you have a bit of a war chest saved up, you can more easily jump on the cheapies that you missed first up.


I just think that once you start having $460k saved up, then you have sacrificed too many points in your initial team and you would need to make a lot of cash, very quickly in order to catch up to the teams ahead of you.

SI wrote:
I have Nikorima at the moment because of this.  

Joey Superior wrote:

I'm backing him to have a killer year this year.

Niko > Croft

mulvy wrote:Lone scout Q&A up.

of note:

A few players are already set to get dual position status based on the pre-season (Greg Inglis WFB/CTR; Viliame Kikau FRF/2RF and Mark Nicholls 2RF/FRF) with more likely to come if they are named in new positions for round one.

Milchcow wrote:

I think Kikau is a bit of a trap, but that is good for Nicholls, and I am going to seriously consider Inglis in my CTR