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    2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 32

    Fortitude
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    Post by Fortitude Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:18 pm

    Vanish wrote:Probably not a consideration this week, but if you are like me and have Maloney and Rein, you'll want to start building up a bit of a warchest. These guys have an expiry date and will need upgrading/cashing out as soon as Cleary/Peats come back. Can't be certain that there will be available cashies, do banked money for upgrades seems wise.

    Just to repeat/add to the rein/sj/surgess discussion. I really don't see the rush to get them in, unless youre replacing someone who is going to lose a heap of cash, or cost you a heap of points.

    All have high enough BEs that if you are risk adverse, you can have another look at them.

    Personally, the Cronk to SJ trade is a lock for me. If there were points for assisting the guy that ends up with assist points. Cronk would be god status this year. Instead he remains a bland, boring bloke lacking any form of personality or fantasy relevance.

    hymenbustas
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    Post by hymenbustas Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:20 pm

    L-Jimmy wrote:
    Claiming that a raw, un-controlled-for, statistics supports only one single educated POV is probably a bit strong.

    Agreed that the stats available to us shouldn't dictate on who we should pick, there's alot of unknown variables.

    For the record, I didn't mean to come across as aggressive or condescending, or belittling him as uneducated, just giving him another perspective to look at.


    Last edited by hymenbustas on Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
    MilfordTheMagician
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    Post by MilfordTheMagician Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:20 pm

    Dttragic2016 wrote:My 2 cents on the gos v rein v sua situation.
    Sua having the lowest be, atleast 2 months worth of guaranteed role with 60 to 80 mins and solid stats based on previous seasons is a lock.

    Gos - bad ppm/fantasy numbers historically. Although with the 80 min edge role he seems like he could average 25 to 35 and therefore make good cash. Also the cheapest option. Good pick but not for me.

    Rein - highest price and a be that he shouldn't smash. Also riskiest in terms of job security. A definite wait and see for me.

    Bringing in taumalolo and sua for croker and merrin. Fingers crossed! Lolos bottomed out, coming off a big world cup it's the perfect time to get him IMO.

    From a footy perspective the 2 great runs Lolo and sua had last week showed great signs.

    Su'a isn't a lock from the bench...
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:23 pm

    If Sua can somehow land the starting role tomorrow night, I'll probably go him over the other two.

    And I like Angus too, and I was hoping he'd drop in price a little but that's not going to happen. I just feel Tolo is slightly better value for the money and just taking a punt he returns to more of his 2017 form.
    ice_berg86
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    Post by ice_berg86 Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:25 pm

    Thanks guys. Pulled the trigger on Griffin to S'ua. (now watch Griffin score 50....)
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    epic winning tiger blood

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    Post by epic winning tiger blood Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:26 pm

    I dont look at b/e wen i bring in a gun i look at who will score me the most points ...bunnys vs raiders too.
    Krump
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    Post by Krump Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:26 pm

    B/L wrote:Its over fellas. I have recently moved into the far north Burbs of Brissy and with not working that day I have decided to not attend tomorrow nights match.

    This will be the first Broncos home game I have missed since Ashton Sims ended our season in the 2008 Semi Final against the Storm.

    End of an era.
    Thats a whole lot of commitment mate. Kudos
    Weiland
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    Post by Weiland Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:26 pm

    Discovering this forum has been a blessing and a curse. Blessing because you learn a lot about the pro and cons of every trade in but a curse because it makes every decision that much harder.

    Anyway, after initially going for a no trade week since I had only banked one I have decided to go Griffin/Su'a. I am not convinced about Su'a but I don't see Griffin getting big scores so I may as well bank the 200 grand. It is REALLY tempting to go Lroker to M'Bye with that cash. Would M'Bye be considered a keeper in the halves? If so I might do that and that takes care of those positions for the time being.
    Vanish
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    Post by Vanish Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:27 pm

    Fortitude wrote:

    Just to repeat/add to the rein/sj/surgess discussion. I really don't see the rush to get them in, unless youre replacing someone who is going to lose a heap of cash, or cost you a heap of points.

    All have high enough BEs that if you are risk adverse, you can have another look at them.

    Personally, the Cronk to SJ trade is a lock for me. If there were points for assisting the guy that ends up with assist points. Cronk would be god status this year. Instead he remains a bland, boring bloke lacking any form of personality or fantasy relevance.

    Well Rein has a BE of 24 and many people are predicting a score around 45. That, and his limited time to make bank, means I don't think it's wise to wait and see with him. I think you'd have to either take the gamble or don't, unfortunately.

    Yeah I don't see any reason to rush those other two in beyond a points increase this week. Their BEs mean they aren't about to jump away in price. Tlolo and Smith on the other hand should see decent cash rises.
    Pookus McFly
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    Post by Pookus McFly Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:28 pm

    I am sticking to my plan of ignoring the popular Rein/Su'a/Gosi picks and bringing in Dillon. Flanagan himself said that he doubts Fifita plays this week and he seems as likely as anyone to pinch his starting spot. Not scared off by his average game last week and seems like he might stick around for a while so really just needs the one or two big scores and can ride the price rises with mediocre scores thereafter.

    Okay, you guys can all go back to talking about Rein now. Thank you for listening Smile
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    Post by Guest Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:32 pm

    Yep Pookus Dillon is a trade in for me next week as a cash out. He’ll be around for a while
    Vanish
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    Post by Vanish Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:32 pm

    Vanish wrote:Probably not a consideration this week, but if you are like me and have Maloney and Rein, you'll want to start building up a bit of a warchest. These guys have an expiry date and will need upgrading/cashing out as soon as Cleary/Peats come back. Can't be certain that there will be available cashies, do banked money for upgrades seems wise.
    Actually talked myself out of Rein. Already gonna need to move Maloney on in about three weeks. With most cash cows, you can keep them around for a while after they've hit their peak, but Rein and Maloney will need selling ASAP.
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    Post by Guest Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:33 pm

    So wacko just tweeted that Murray will be ruled out.
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    Post by Guest Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:37 pm

    Gone gose this week and most likely Dillon next week to possibly cash out Kennar etc. Captain Cook
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    Post by Guest Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:41 pm

    I'll have Murray at no. 17, Su'a 18, Gosiewski 19.
    If Su'a scores well I'll take his score. If not I'll swap Gosiewski & Murray before the Souths game.
    My 2 trades atm will be:
    Griffin & Lodge out - Taumalolo & Gosiewski in

    Cook (c)
    Kikau, Arrow
    Jurbo, Taumalolo, RFM
    DCE, Maloney
    Mitchell, Kennar
    Tedesco, Ponga, Thompson

    Smith, JFH, Rochow, Murray
    Su'a, Gosiewski, Isaako, Doueihi (I'm banking on A-Rey getting injured)

    Thoughts & thanks.
    Fortitude
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    Post by Fortitude Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:41 pm

    Can I have 12 pages of Dillion focused discussion, so I can go ahead and pick up Su'a instead?
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:42 pm

    Dillon surprisingly owned by 20% of teams.
    Vanish
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    Post by Vanish Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:43 pm

    wolfking wrote:Dillon surprisingly owned by 20% of teams.
    A guess a lot of players looking for that basement price cash-out so they can get in a big gun.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:43 pm


    People have been posting fantasy scores for halfbacks against certain teams.

    A lesson learnt early from my days generating DFS predictions.

    Just looking at raw scores against 1 team is a poor idea. You need to compare to average.
    Saying SJ scored 38 against St George is useless without knowing what he has been scoring against everyone else.

    The stat you want to know is that halfbacks playing St George score roughly 80% of their season average, and that halfbacks playing Gold Coast score 130% of their average (numbers made up but points is sound)

    Looking at just raw numbers you can end up predicting a season high score for a mediocre player against tough team. Or a season low for a good player in an easy game
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:45 pm


    If anything we need more trade discussion. Rather than just talk about Rein all week, need a bit more variety in possible trade targets so we make sure we cover all bases

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