NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

Just compared four random but commonly owned players on my site to what the official fantasy site has, and each BE was within 1 point

SaveTheCheerleader wrote:

Try our own ... https://www.nrlfantasy.com.au/breakevens.php

@RNGD Analytics

I stand to be corrected but those formulas work of a 5 game weighted average, and BEs on MTB's site will likely be different to milch's because the magic number has gone down below 15,000 now and Milch often updates that from memory.

So no change (other than the MN) from previous seasons as far as I know.

Further to that, unlike the formula for VSDT the weighted average means that the score that is just about to drop out has the smallest weighting, 1/15th of the 5 game average. I suspect, but haven't checked, thats why you'll find the BEs didn't change by heaps when those extreme scores drop out; they've basically already been priced in by the time the score drops out.

Titans posted an injury update yesterday, the head trainer said that Peats started running without pain on Monday. He said that Peats wanted to play this weekend, but the reality is another 1-2 weeks (ie including this weekend).

my tv broke wrote:Just compared four random but commonly owned players on my site to what the official fantasy site has, and each BE was within 1 point

Solid Job MTB! Your'e the man

Will Yeo shift back to 2RF despite being named at CTR?

SaveTheCheerleader wrote:

Try our own ...

I use that more than I use the fantasy website!

my tv broke wrote:

haha mine are probably further from being correct.

I just use the formula Milch gave me, but for some reason my BE's differ to Milch's sheet. I have just left it using 15,000 as MN though, so certainly not "correct". I figure they are close enough to give a reasonable guide though.

I've only seen a difference of +/- 2 which I think is definitely reasonable! Pretty sure those FailHub guys don't even know their own formula

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

@RNGD Analytics

I stand to be corrected but those formulas work of a 5 game weighted average, and BEs on MTB's site will likely be different to milch's because the magic number has gone down below 15,000 now and Milch often updates that from memory.

So no change (other than the MN) from previous seasons as far as I know.

Sweet. I had just heard Butters say a few times three game average and I couldn't understand what happened with Mbye.

Does anyone know how i can view my trade history !?

And thanks for adding price history MTB

I would love for there to be a stat tracker of price changes since you've brought a player in rather than the whole season. Would be nice when weighing up trade out options etc #wishfulthinking

SaveTheCheerleader wrote:Does anyone know how i can view my trade history !?

I think you have to click through the rounds at the top of the screen to look at older versions of your team

SaveTheCheerleader wrote:Does anyone know how i can view my trade history !?

You can't anymore. New format, doesn't seem to have the option.

hymenbustas wrote:Asking for a mate, too late to ride Rein's money train for the next 3 matches?

with Simpkins included on the bench, 80min Rein may already be a thing of the past.

RNGD Analytics wrote:

Sweet. I had just heard Butters say a few times three game average and I couldn't understand what happened with Mbye.

No worries. I don't know him, but I've watch parts of his videos. I think his take on players is pretty useful, his stats and analysis is pretty woeful though. I would at the least double check anything he says in that respect.

Last week he gave an explanation of bye strategies (from a numerical stance) that were not actually possible, and in previous weeks he has employed some so called 'statistical analyses' that has been completely flawed.

Rapture_NRL wrote:I would love for there to be a stat tracker of price changes since you've brought a player in rather than the whole season. Would be nice when weighing up trade out options etc #wishfulthinking

I would like this to as I don't want to see JFH has made 298K for the year, I would rather see that he has made 170K since I brought him (as an example) to justify me trading him out

Anyone biting the bullet on Brown considering he might be a few weeks off still?

RNGD Analytics wrote:

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

@RNGD Analytics

I stand to be corrected but those formulas work of a 5 game weighted average, and BEs on MTB's site will likely be different to milch's because the magic number has gone down below 15,000 now and Milch often updates that from memory.

So no change (other than the MN) from previous seasons as far as I know.

Sweet. I had just heard Butters say a few times three game average and I couldn't understand what happened with Mbye.

Any chance the negative in MBye's history made things all to difficult for Sanjay and Ramesh , as in threw the calcs out?

Rapture_NRL wrote:I would love for there to be a stat tracker of price changes since you've brought a player in rather than the whole season. Would be nice when weighing up trade out options etc #wishfulthinking

I actually started doing that manually for my team yesterday because I thought it would be interesting to see how my team value increased over the season based on trades etc.

And it sucked to do because as already mentioned no trade history meant I had to go back and compare each round to work out trades and then click each player to see what they were valued

FWIW there is a Courier Mail article on isaako. It mentions that Kahu returned to training on Monday and trained at left centre (and then copped a knock which meant he sat out the rest of training).