NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

Rapture_NRL wrote:I would love for there to be a stat tracker of price changes since you've brought a player in rather than the whole season. Would be nice when weighing up trade out options etc #wishfulthinking

RNGD Analytics wrote:

I actually started doing that manually for my team yesterday because I thought it would be interesting to see how my team value increased over the season based on trades etc.

And it sucked to do because as already mentioned no trade history meant I had to go back and compare each round to work out trades and then click each player to see what they were valued

MTB added the price column on the individual Player Stats page on nrlfantasy.com.au
you can see the history of price changes there

Is it possible for me to get two $212 Centers that wont ever play and just have them on the field in centers and just get myself people like T.Harris and RFM in my 1 and second emergency to practically be my centers?
It would be a bit stupid if I could.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

I would like this to as I don't want to see JFH has made 298K for the year, I would rather see that he has made 170K since I brought him (as an example) to justify me trading him out

Only way I've found is to go into a players full profile, go to past fixtures and add up the weekly increases/decreases for the rounds you owned them.

Rjconner.rc wrote:Is it possible for me to get two $212 Centers that wont ever play and just have them on the field in centers and just get myself people like T.Harris and RFM in my 1 and second emergency to practically be my centers?
It would be a bit stupid if I could.

Nope

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

No worries. I don't know him, but I've watch parts of his videos. I think his take on players is pretty useful, his stats and analysis is pretty woeful though. I would at the least double check anything he says in that respect.

Last week he gave an explanation of bye strategies (for a numerical stance) that were not actually possible for example and in previous weeks he has employed some so called statistical analysis that has been completely flawed.

Yeah I heard his thoughts on byes, not sure he'd even looked yet. He has some useful thoughts that often line up with mine (maybe that's a problem for me!) but you've got be really careful on buying his theories - the stacking the deck theory could be the dumbest theory I've heard all year. Either way I try to get as much info as I can even when I'm not always on board with it

Can anybody enlighten me on what RNGD means? Apologies in advance for my ineptitude

@Stormtrooper96 @RNGD_Analytics Yeah, it would be a good way to evaluate trading efficiency. Any stats/progamming students would love that stuff! But, alas, I'll have to look at JFH with rose-tinted, +$298k, glasses
@filthridden yeah, it's ace having the price column on nrlfantasy.com.au now, not that I do the maths lol

Chewie wrote:



MTB added the price column on the individual Player Stats page on nrlfantasy.com.au
you can see the history of price changes there

I saw he'd added that about five minutes after I'd spent an hour stuffing around on the fantasy website...

I have it all tracked now. I know that the 15 players I have traded out this season made me $68k per trade and that I have unrealised gains on my team of $3,480,000! Pretty meaningless but maybe something interesting comes out of it in terms of team building.

Rapture_NRL wrote:Can anybody enlighten me on what RNGD means? Apologies in advance for my ineptitude

@Stormtrooper96 @RNGD_Analytics Yeah, it would be a good way to evaluate trading efficiency. Any stats/progamming students would love that stuff! But, alas, I'll have to look at JFH with rose-tinted, +$298k, glasses
@filthridden yeah, it's ace having the price column on nrlfantasy.com.au now, not that I do the maths lol

RNGD is just a tag used for Renegades. Dropping the vowels. It saves me having to come up with a creative team name.

Rapture_NRL wrote:Can anybody enlighten me on what RNGD means? Apologies in advance for my ineptitude

@Stormtrooper96 @RNGD_Analytics Yeah, it would be a good way to evaluate trading efficiency. Any stats/progamming students would love that stuff! But, alas, I'll have to look at JFH with rose-tinted, +$298k, glasses
@filthridden yeah, it's ace having the price column on nrlfantasy.com.au now, not that I do the maths lol

Renegade I am guessing. As per the Renegade FB page

Too early to bring Murray in? I can afford him with some jiggery pokery

I might just watch him for another week

Rapture_NRL wrote:Can anybody enlighten me on what RNGD means? Apologies in advance for my ineptitude

@Stormtrooper96 @RNGD_Analytics Yeah, it would be a good way to evaluate trading efficiency. Any stats/progamming students would love that stuff! But, alas, I'll have to look at JFH with rose-tinted, +$298k, glasses
@filthridden yeah, it's ace having the price column on nrlfantasy.com.au now, not that I do the maths lol

RNGD = Abbreviation for Renegades

RNGD Analytics wrote:

Yeah I heard his thoughts on byes, not sure he'd even looked yet. He has some useful thoughts that often line up with mine (maybe that's a problem for me!) but you've got be really careful on buying his theories - the stacking the deck theory could be the dumbest theory I've heard all year. Either way I try to get as much info as I can even when I'm not always on board with it

Haha, yup, I was thinking of using that as an example. Im not quite sure how he could think that was a sensible way to look at things.....

And then last week his analysis on how many tries players were gonna score before the end of the year effectively said that was inversely related to how many tries they had scored already this season. Im not sure how he reconciled that in his head either.

Anyway, like you say he has some good views too, but IMO they tend to be from a purely rugby league view point on not statistically based.

They guy is passionate though and I suspect has a good heart, but there's something up with him too. Hard to say without meeting him, but there's something not quite right

RNGD Analytics wrote:

I actually started doing that manually for my team yesterday because I thought it would be interesting to see how my team value increased over the season based on trades etc.

And it sucked to do because as already mentioned no trade history meant I had to go back and compare each round to work out trades and then click each player to see what they were valued

I am lucky there as I record that in my blog with screen shots each week
So will go back and have a look when needed, but more just for fun to see what happened or my train of thought at the time. Sucks we have to resort to this but the features are less every year

To be fair have cut back a bit on the analysis this year, 2016 was probably the better one.
Have about 3 years of doing it now but a lot less tools this year to make it look pretty which I do miss.


Once that trade is done you can’t change what you paid for them, and injuries skew this even more.
Still a useful tool to help in your future trades but it’s most useful BEFORE you trade them in, really just a way to justify the trade in.

Regarding ‘profit’ some people get hung up on holding onto that player to make that extra little bit of $$ as if they are owed it.

Yes it would be ideal to make a made up profit ‘$150k’ but for everyone of those we get another player like Gosi that doesn’t make as much.
Do you hold him for 4 weeks and hope he makes the starting line up and makes you that extra 80k or do you cut and run.

St
I guess like Kenny Rogers you have to know when to walk away or if his name is Lewis Brown, know when to run

Shooter McGavin wrote:Anyone biting the bullet on Brown considering he might be a few weeks off still?

Yeah, he will be gone before this weekend. I held him for the past 3 weeks with the knowledge he had a 2 week injury, gave him 1 week benefit of a late return, but now his return has been stalled until round 12. Even then he is likely to be eased back into the team so he is gone for me.

RNGD Analytics wrote:Any one have any idea on break even calculations this year? I used to be able to get something close but no idea this year. I'm probably less interested in the calculation than the number of games being used. It used to be five but some people have said three this year. But i look at Moses Mbye's BE history and I have no idea - his BE never got a bump or drop when his 100 and -1 dropped out. I'd love to think that there is some system but maybe fanhub...

Hey RA,

Here is a link to something I wrote on BEs and price changes a couple of years ago. Hope it all makes sense.

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t128-stats-spreadsheets-etc-break-evens-current-for-round-14#14123


That is the formula I use for my BEs, and that MTB uses on his site.
I was using a MN of 15,000 early in the season (when fantasy scores were low) , but have dropped it down to 14,800 now that game scores seem to be improving.

Hope it helps

Shooter McGavin wrote:Anyone biting the bullet on Brown considering he might be a few weeks off still?

I have got Dugan and Brown and I am in two minds. On one hand I can keep them both and get Latrell in this week. Saves two trades long-term. The other side is I trade both out and get Latrell and Fifita this week.

Verbal Kint wrote:Too early to bring Murray in? I can afford him with some jiggery pokery

I might just watch him for another week

I'd wait. And probably wait till after Burgess is back. Really like to see how the Rabbits middle forward minutes settle. They were good for rounds 2, 3 and 4 when the pack was pretty much full strength but that might not stay the case now that Tom Burgess is playing so well.

Does Teetotaller still hang around under a different name, or on Facebook these days?

He always had a pretty good understanding of BEs, and got me started when I first started calculating them myself

ArsenDragon us pretty good on the stats too

I sometimes wonder if the odd new person who seems wise beyond their years fantasy wise is an alt.
Kinda like Moose last year haha

Ranga who are you really?

Milchcow wrote:Does Teetotaller still hang around under a different name, or on Facebook these days?

He always had a pretty good understanding of BEs, and got me started when I first started calculating them myself

ArsenDragon us pretty good on the stats too

Not sure about Teetotaller don't think he made it across. IIRC Arsen has an account here and has popped in a couple time, but he is in the Legends FB group. I think SI has contact with him.