NRLFF community managed fantasy team

Great write-up yet again mate, well done for doing all this and congrats to the team and the people that swayed us to the trades we made.

I applied my very basic price projection tool for team value and as expected we need to generate >$1m above and beyond current team price projection. This means we really need the best cows, and need them sooner rather than later. Our 17 looks solid (assuming Lawrie is viable again) so I dont think we need to fix anything there. But from Burr down Im a little nervous as to whether we are going to be able to make the money required to compete for a top spot this year. In particular, I dont like Burr, who looks set for a role that doesn't equate to an adequate cash generating cow.

We dont have the cash to upgrade to him though from our existing cows so if we were to go down that track of trading to the best cows then we'll need to ditch someone from our 17, probably Edwards which in turn means we'd either need to play Sivo, Ravalawa, or find an alternative - and I dont like any of the options there).

In short, Im not sure I see a clear path here BUT, I'd urge us to make some kind of bold move asI think we are going to struggle down the track if we cant find a way to generate more money.

Some tough calls, but I think we need to find a way of getting Bird in, and possible one more, some thoughts with numbers below:

Burr - unless he gets more time due to injury at best I see 30 minutes as his role. That probably places him at making $50k over the next 4 rounds or so which I dont think is worth holding... There is also a risk he drops out of the 17 altogether....

Bird looks to be the best option as a guy who will make money (should be $100k floor, $150k realistic, with upside of $200+, a 35 average over 4 weeks would be ~$120k)

Waddell looks interesting, would love to hear more about what role people see him as having (I guess it depends on how Sironen pulls up). But if he could hit 35s for 4 games he'll make $170k (130k if its 3 games).

Xerri could be a nice basement price option if he gets himself a starting spot.

Any others that spring to mind?

I feel the main thing we should be focusing on is preparing to get guys like Tedesco and Crichton in when they are at a good price.

Mahoney and Lawrie may peak in price in a few weeks, leave for now and hope they make enough cash for a good swap when the time comes.
I think it looks like Edwards to Tedesco in maybe 2-4 weeks might be a good option.

I don't see any urgent trades.
Xerri may be a possible trade in

Cookie cutter approach proving to be a viable strategy here. Early days but it is shaping up nicely.

At this point I'm making a call that I cannot beat this team. I needed POD Tedesco to go large in W1 & W2. This didn't happen and he'll be snapped up a lot cheaper. Although, if he (Bruce) banners in W3 this might save me a bit.

Anyway, trade.... nothing immediately jumps out. It might be an opportunity to bank one? The vote will likely be for 2 trades So, maybe Edwards to Bird and jumping on a better cashie for Sivo/Rava

I don't see an obvious trade either but we need a banking plan to grab Crichton.

My initial feeling is that we can probably hold fire on trades this week, but I'm definitely open to options so I'll wait and see

Depending on TLT, Bird is the main trade in target, but not sure there is an easy way to get him in.

We have to follow Morgan and his shoulder in case he requires a trade out.

Capewell or Tolman for Bird.

Bank the cash and other trade.

Rava is my major concern. Another low score and making cash is really delayed. Given the way the Dragons are shaping is another concern for his scores.
Of cause the problem is were another cow comes from but as soon as one crops up we should jump. I see Rava turning into a dead spot. (after saying that, get him in your team. He'll now score 45 next week)

Mac Attack wrote:Capewell or Tolman for Bird.

Bank the cash and other trade.

I don't mind this as an aggressive move that keeps pace on the points and builds bank. Bird should have similar point potential with better cash.

If we bank on them all to average 45 they'd all get to roughly 675k (or 40 = 600k).

Tolman    596k  
Capewell  451k
Bird         388k

But I also don't mind the conserve trades approach where we hold as there aren't any obvious upside moves. We don't have the cash for Sivo/Rava so they are a wait. Regardless I think its a now or never week to get Bird in but I don't see any obvious changes to get him in. TLT could help.

Unless we are just trying to win out of the Celeb teams then Im not sure what the point of the conservative approach is. We are well placed to have a crack at winning the whole thing at the moment, I reckon we go for it.

Therefore, I quite like Mac Attack's suggestion.

IMO we can count on a 40 point ave for Capewell but Im not sure we'll get that much more. = $600k an $150k still to make if we hold him till he peaks.

Tolman is more of a wild card. The dogs seem to benefit from having him on the park so Pay may up his minutes, but he might not. I think therefore he should average 45 but there is upside but so far you'd have to think the upside is unlikely.

I think Bird is a must have for us.

With that in mind I think Tolman to Bird could be a good call, mostly cause it nets us $200k, more money making potential, and probably doesn't cost us to much in terms of total points for our 17. As long as we use that $200k wisely, then I think its the way forward.

The $200k would allow us to upgrade a dud cow (or two), and/or get prepared to add Crichton/Teddy in a couple of weeks.

Agree though, all this is just ideas until TLT comes around - that should shed some light on whether or not another obvious cow exists.

Expecting this week to be lots of opportunities with injuries and team changes after some teams not looking close to winning a game yet. Ones like Xerri become a must have if he is named.

mattnz wrote:Expecting this week to be lots of opportunities with injuries and team changes after some teams not looking close to winning a game yet. Ones like Xerri become a must have if he is named.

Sounds like Xerri is a good option, but surely you'd want him to be guaranteed at least 3 weeks to bring him in?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Sounds like Xerri is a good option, but surely you'd want him to be guaranteed at least 3 weeks to bring him in?

Can use him to loop centers if needed, but expect him to be getting 40+ each week easily, can play him when available, loop him if not. Better than a guy like Ravalawa or Sivo who when he is in the team can get a 9. Can see Xerri cementing a spot on form. Averaging 58 in ISP, 2 try assists and a try this week for 67. If he comes in for Feki, I don't see him getting a start ahead of him the rest of the year. You just don't pass up a chance to get a guy like that in the team. He is the next Mitchell / Teddy / Turbo level player that will consistently score well for $212k.

Note that I have had Xerri in my own team since the start.

mattnz wrote:

Can use him to loop centers if needed, but expect him to be getting 40+ each week easily, can play him when available, loop him if not. Better than a guy like Ravalawa or Sivo who when he is in the team can get a 9. Can see Xerri cementing a spot on form. Averaging 58 in ISP, 2 try assists and a try this week for 67. If he comes in for Feki, I don't see him getting a start ahead of him the rest of the year. You just don't pass up a chance to get a guy like that in the team. He is the next Mitchell / Teddy / Turbo level player that will consistently score well for $212k.

Note that I have had Xerri in my own team since the start.

I personally think the gains from looping dont outweigh the losses from having carrying deadweight from the start in place of someone who could be making money. I'd want to get 3 games out of him minimum to begin with. That said, I think we do have to do something drastic with this team to stay in the hunt for #1. With Ravala, Sivo, and Burr as three of our potential CCs I think we are in serious danger of not generating money fast enough. Xerri could of course by part of the answer to that, but as I've said, he needs to get game time. 1 start won't cut it.

I don't mind Tolman to Bird

With Fifita and Taupau we don't need the extra front rower.
Lawrie is good enough backup for now.

Would be happy to move Ravalava or Sivo on if we thought there was a good option.
Unfortunately they both play before Sharks so we can't wait and see on Xerri.

With Clifford around and a dodgy shoulder we need to keep an eye on Morgan.
Maybe upgrade to a gun if he struggles again this week.

Think Teddy should come in soon, but happy to wait a week.

Hey Guys,

Will post a poll in 12 hours or so but all I'm seeing is

Outs:

Tolman
Capewell
Edwards

Ins:

Bird
Tedesco
Crichton
Xerri

Anyone else we want to consider?

Okunbur should be considered as an in.

Ravalawa and Sivo as outs

I think we should have an option for Morgan to go out, just in case. although I suspect he'll play anyway, I am concerned about his shoulder.

My personal vote is 1 trade. Tolman to Bird for cash reasons.

Gives us a nice Crichton/Teddy fund for next couple of weeks.

I have 1 eye on something like Ravalawa to Clifford, think he could be one to watch, but maybe not worth taking a punt on from the start.

Build some bank for weaker halves pairing incase Clifford tampers with Morgans scoring output and for Crichton and Ted as per above