2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

White Lightning wrote:On the Bulldogs this dude Ranga Dragons on sc fb reckons he has an inside source who is an exercise phsiologist who gave him some info of what's going on in pre season.
The backrow = 11.CHN 12.Jackson 13.Elliot - R. Martin is unknown atm whether he'll be bench or ISP. When you consider Martin was only really a fill in for injuries in 2018 & although his offensive game & gk are top notch the defensive side of his game was not up to standard in 2018. Also apparently Martin is not in good physical condition atm.
Goal Kicker = Holland will be gk if things stay the same & he'll be left ctr & Hopoate right ctr.
RFM = he has bulked up & whispers he'll play front row

Lines up with my theory that CHN would definitely be one of the edge forwards.

Tbh, it all looks pretty good for Tolman to play big minutes, but I'm still wary on him.

Just watched highlights from Drinkwaters debut, had another 20 point play taken away by a questionable obstruction call, imagine his price if that hadn't happened

But yeah, looks a good player. Will definitely be in my SC team if playing, strong consideration for fantasy also.

Likely goalkickers for each club, courteous of Foxsports

current players only with 15 kicks minimum

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/teams/pick-of-the-placekickers-every-teams-top-sharpshooters-revealed/news-story/59f7e141019872cdac34ae273d86e119


Broncos

First choice: Jamayne Isaako — 97 from 117 (82.9%)

Back up: Jordan Kahu — 145 from 189 (76.7%)

Back up: Anthony Milford — 36 from 53 (67.9%)

Bulldogs

First choice: Rhyse Martin — 36 from 38 (94.7%)

Back up: Kerrod Holland — 70 from 89 (78.7%)

Cowboys

First choice: Ethan Lowe — 69 from 89 (77.5%)

Back up: Kyle Feldt — 19 from 31 (61.3%)

Dragons

First choice: Gareth Widdop — 382 from 500 (76.4%)

Back up: Ben Hunt — 25 from 37 (67.6%)

Back up: Tim Lafai — 16 from 24 (66.7%)

Eels

First choice: Mitchell Moses — 154 from 208 (74%)

Back up: Clinton Gutherson — 60 from 85 (70.6%)

Back up: Blake Ferguson — 22 from 32 (68.8%)

Knights

First choice: Mason Lino — 16 from 21 (76.2%)

Back up: Kalyn Ponga — 27 from 39 (69.2%)

Panthers

First choice: Nathan Cleary — 185 from 219 (84.5%)

Back up: James Maloney — 760 from 936 (81.2%)

Rabbitohs

First choice: Adam Reynolds — 548 from 667 (82.2%)

Back up: Adam Doueihi 9 from 15 (60%)

Back up: Greg Inglis 9 from 16 (56.3%

Raiders

First choice: Sam Williams — 25 from 30 (83.3%)

Back up: Aidan Sezer — 179 from 218 (82.1%)

Back up: Jarrod Croker — 656 from 809 (81.1%)

Roosters

First choice: Brock Lamb — 30 from 35 ( 85.7%)

Back up: Latrell Mitchell — 111 from 151 (73.5%)

back up: Sio Siua Taukeiaho — 35 from 48 (72.9%)

Sea Eagles

First choice: Kane Elgey — 19 from 24 (79.2%)

Back up: Trent Hodkinson — 294 from 378 (77.8%)

Back up: Daly Cherry-Evans — 101 from 144 (70.1)

Sharks

First choice: Shaun Johnson — 326 from 435 (74.9%)

Back up: Chad Townsend — 112 from 168 (66.7%)

Back up: Matt Moylan — 29 from 47 (61.7%)

Storm

First choice: Cameron Smith — 1105 from 1487 (74.3%)

Back up: Cameron Munster — 14 from 25 (56%)

Titans

First choice: Michael Gordon — 654 from 807 (81%)

Back up: Tyrone Roberts — 229 from 310 (73.9%)

Back up: Ash Taylor — 83 from 116 (71.6%)

Warriors

First choice: Issac Luke — 181 from 256 (70.7%)

Back up: No one else has had 15 or more kicks.

Tigers

First choice: Esan Marsters — 56 from 74 (75.7%)

Back up: Benji Marshall — 402 from 566 (71%)

Back up: Moses Mbye — 101 from 146 (69.2%)

Don't trust that goal kicker list.
Plenty of their listed first choice kickers won't start, and they haven't considered rookie kickers eg Keighran/Clifford (who admittedly are no guarantees to start themselves)

Its just been sorted by %. First choice should read "most accurate" or something

"Bevan French will get the first chance to stake a claim for the contentious fullback jersey when the league trials unofficially start on Thursday night.

Parramatta will take on South Sydney in a pre-season clash between their Intrust Super Premiership teams, although Eels coach Brad Arthur will use the match to assess the progress of several first-grade candidates."


Tbh, all that tells me is that Gutho will be the fullback for the Eels in round 1. Its a reserve grade trial with some fringe first graders playing.

Alfie wrote:Scott Drinkwater 2018 ISC stats from 22 matches        
   
2nd in Tries-17                                                          
1st in Linebreaks-21                                                  
1st in Tacklebreaks-160                                              
1st in Try Assists-24                                                  
1st in Linebreak Assists-22                                          
Avg 133.8 Run Metres                                                
56.8 Fantasy Average  

Kalyn Ponga 2016 NYC stats from 22 matches       

12 tries                                      
18 linebreaks
6 tackle breaks on average
17 try assists
20 linebreak assists
Avg 138 Run Metres
51.9 Fantasy Average

I think I'm keener on Drinkwater now

This is the type of argument I was talking about...
Welcome to my team Drinkwaterbeer

As mentioned by others, the only thing that worries me is Bellamy and his tendency to chop and change players.

my tv broke wrote:As mentioned by others, the only thing that worries me is Bellamy and his tendency to chop and change players.

But say Drinkwater starts at f/b in round 1 & has a bad game. Bellamy is not going drop him after 1 bad game & re-jig his team. Look at Croft he played crap for weeks & he was still given a good stretch of games to come right. However I can't see Drinkwater having a bad game because he's so busy & gets involved in everything. As for chopping & changing this was only because Croft just wasn't performing so eventually Bellamy had to try something else. If Croft had of hit the ground running from round 1 there would of been no rotation.

Milchy wrote:
Don't trust that goal kicker list.
Plenty of their listed first choice kickers won't start, and they haven't considered rookie kickers eg Keighran/Clifford (who admittedly are no guarantees to start themselves)

They are only talking about current kickers with only 15 conversions to their name. Anyone with a brain would take this list with a grain of salt and besides its common sense that if the 1st choice kicker doesn't start then the next on the list likely will. The list is a tool to use not a written law.

White Lightning wrote:

But say Drinkwater starts at f/b in round 1 & has a bad game. Bellamy is not going drop him after 1 bad game & re-jig his team.

Its a fair point. If he's going badly enough to be dropped then you probably didn't want him in your team anyway.

Every year we see 2nd year players emerge with more minutes then their debut year. I'm thinking, Tevita Tatola from the Rabbitohs might be the first cab off the rank and play increased minutes. Is there someone else I am overlooking. Liam Knight has been "training the house down" but surely he wouldn't jump Tatola in priority. Is there anyone in the know, Rabbit?

Note, Burgess boys can't really play big minutes (except Sam)

Thought I'd be all over the if starting. Plays rd 12 but I doubt you'd have him that long, his stats aren't overly impressive. He does have a high score in him though, only needs to string a couple together to make decent cash.

bluetige wrote:Every year we see 2nd year players emerge with more minutes then their debut year. I'm thinking, Tevita Tatola from the Rabbitohs might be the first cab off the rank and play increased minutes. Is there someone else I am overlooking. Liam Knight has been "training the house down" but surely he wouldn't jump Tatola in priority. Is there anyone in the know, Rabbit?

Note, Burgess boys can't really play big minutes (except Sam)

On Knight there was a rumour that he would replace Gurgess who is suspended for the first 3 games because as you said Knight has been really putting his hand up in pre season. Surgess to front row & Knight on edge. But as you say Tatola has just as much chance as well & that way Surgess can stay on the edge & Tatola starts in the front row then Surgess to front row when Tatola has a break & Knight off bench to edge. This is what peaked my interest re Surgess because in either scenario I think Surgess is in for big minutes.

White Lightning wrote:

On Knight there was a rumour that he would replace Gurgess who is suspended for the first 3 games because as you said Knight has been really putting his hand up in pre season. Surgess to front row & Knight on edge. But as you say Tatola has just as much chance as well & that way Surgess can stay on the edge & Tatola starts in the front row then Surgess to front row when Tatola has a break & Knight off bench to edge. This is what peaked my interest re Surgess because in either scenario I think Surgess is in for big minutes.

Same. And when Gurgess comes back, hopefully he remains a gun but if not should at least score well enough to keep until rd 12 and then trade.

bluetige wrote:Every year we see 2nd year players emerge with more minutes then their debut year. I'm thinking, Tevita Tatola from the Rabbitohs might be the first cab off the rank and play increased minutes. Is there someone else I am overlooking. Liam Knight has been "training the house down" but surely he wouldn't jump Tatola in priority. Is there anyone in the know, Rabbit?

Note, Burgess boys can't really play big minutes (except Sam)

Tatola will have a good chance to stake his claim when Gurgess misses the first few rounds.

In 2018 Surgess averaged 45. He lost 6 points due to mainly missed tackles but also errors & penalties. The problem is he overplays the enforcer type role where he rushes out of the line & tries to put a big hit on which is great in real life but not for fantasy. He was probably encouraged to do this by Siebold as well. But Bennett is a more conservative coach & maybe he'll rein in Surgess' impulsive brain snaps & just get him playing a less risky type of game & tell him to just stay in the defensive line.

White Lightning wrote:In 2018 Surgess averaged 45. He lost 6 points due to mainly missed tackles but also errors & penalties. The problem is he overplays the enforcer type role where he rushes out of the line & tries to put a big hit on which is great in real life but not for fantasy. He was probably encouraged to do this by Siebold as well. But Bennett is a more conservative coach & maybe he'll rein in Surgess' impulsive brain snaps & just get him playing a less risky type of game & tell him to just stay in the defensive line.

In 2016 and 2017 his negatives were about 9 per game vs 12 last year so that only explains 3 of those six. The other thing is going from 5 tries in 2016 and 2017 to 1 try in 2018. If you include a LB and a couple of tackle breaks for each of those four extra tries, there's your extra 3 points per game on average.

I guess with Tatola we will get a better idea of his position in the Rabbitohs hierarchy in the charity shield. Usually the first half of the charity shield provides the best indication of starter lineups than any other NRL trial. Thats my take anyway.

White Lightning wrote:In 2018 Surgess averaged 45. He lost 6 points due to mainly missed tackles but also errors & penalties. The problem is he overplays the enforcer type role where he rushes out of the line & tries to put a big hit on which is great in real life but not for fantasy. He was probably encouraged to do this by Siebold as well. But Bennett is a more conservative coach & maybe he'll rein in Surgess' impulsive brain snaps & just get him playing a less risky type of game & tell him to just stay in the defensive line.

This could make him a must have, again, his playing style will be closely watched during the charity shield. If he continues his normal approach he's a no-no, but if he appears to stay in the defensive line he will become higher on my radar