Some more picking apart to keep the serious discussion going
Warriors wrote:
HOK: Not sure whether there is better value out there than C Smith. Getting C Smith at start saves trades in a two player position. Don't see Peats or Macca doing any better than last year but will look to get Peats around Origin time. Maybe Segy but not confident on captaining Segy every week of the season and he will have some games where he doesn't score well. Does anyone know if P Wallace has played any hooker before? Cant see Segy getting 80 every week. M Parcell is best prospect for his price I believe. Even if he gets 30-35 minutes and gets an average of 30 I will be happy. Then can pick up Peats for Origin.
Just to get picky on terminology, there is certainly better "value" then Cam Smith. Cam will get you big scores every week, but you have to pay for it. Its not like he is available for a discount. Doesn't mean he isn't worth getting. There is certainly good reason to have a pick and forget player you can keep there all season with little risk though.
Seggy on the other hand I think provides a bit of value. Almost all his low scores last year were injury affected. Assuming he stays fit he'll average almost the same as Cam Smith but for $70k less. That is value.
also, assuming he stays fit, no reason to assume he won't be playing 80 nearly every week.
Also I think Parcell getting 30 minutes may be a stretch. He might be a slow burn, slowly increasing gametime and fantasy points over the course of the season. But too many high scoring options at hooker to waste a spot on someone who won't be contributing from the start.
2RF: Not sure on big Samy to start, may struggle to average 55 at start but will look to bring him in around Origin time possibly. He played out of his skin for that 62 average and being a year out I reckon will take a bit to get back to that level. Would prefer get Parker from start, keep for season. Whitehead is a gun, good value in an attacking Canberra team with plenty of tries in them. Can see Papa/Soliola mins decreasing slightly possibly being in FRF rotation. Worth the gamble at that price. With Tariq out for 5 weeks reckon both Rochow/Tapine will get big mins to start then I can reassess after 6 weeks. Rochow may play close to 80 most of the year on the right. Edwards is cheap and may be starting lock. Don't care how many minutes he gets, Tigers will be doing lots of tackling. Chee Kam may get gametime.
I think Whitehead could provide good value if he gets a lot of gametime. Not confident that is going to happen though.
On Burgess, even if he doesn't match 2014, I don't think he'll lose money based on his starting price.
With no Sims, Rochow and/or Tapine both promising options to start the season with. Think they will be very popular.
Edwards certainly on my watch list - if not him then someone in Tigers team will hopefully be doing a lot of work.
Halves: If Hastings/Taylor flop everyone will be in same boat. Am more inclined to go cheap here, can't afford two guns and the midrangers are a lottery. Would prefer to grab a fallen gun after 6/7 weeks than take a gamble on a midranger firing.
The differentiator with Hastings/Taylor will be those that have them in their starting 17 vs those who have them as NPRs.
If they flop some people will have to deal with crap scores and no money, some people will only have to worry about the money problem.
CTR: Reckon Canberra will go well, easy draw, lots of kicking points for Croker plus tries. Not gonna risk Hurrell/Lafai at this stage. Would prefer gun/cashcows approach. Also Brown/Lawrence could easily end up on bench due to depth of
2RF at their clubs or could be pushed to Centre during games to cover injury. Would rather not take that gamble.
Lawrence's days at centre are over. he may end up moving during a game to cover injuries, but will never be selected there again.
Same is likely true for Brown. Both should provide solid scores, with the advantage of having a higher floor than guys like Hurrell/Lafai.
Nothing wrong with massive one week, low the next for your backs though. Its the season average you care about.
Don't want to rely on cash cows to do everything in your backs. For every Coote/Aitken there is a Nabuli/Lee that is going to get stuck in your team doing nothing. Best to have some reliability in there if you can.
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