DFS 2020

If anyone follows horce racing, the Draftstars often seem to have a bit of overlay there (although they might fill up late, I never check right before lockout)

Most of the NRL contests fill up these days, but there was a bit of value in one of them last week. Not that I was able to get anything, no good wins for a couple of weeks now

I've thrown in a couple of teams for the Eels Cowboys game

turned $9 into $27 yesterday Friday games won my $2 and $5 6-max and cashed in the mini (thanks Sivo). Have loaded up all into the $.50 micro today for easy bankroll double up. Top 65% for a double up yes please

been a pretty poor weekend DFS wise but had a few good wins on the try scorers yesterday. Hamlin Uele @ 31 fts team, paasi fts 2nd half @ 81 and eisenhuth fts team @ 41. there's been a lot of value this weekend with sportsbet FTS odds model stuffed up, hoping to hit one on there today!

here are the tips for today:
https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/nrl-round-8-value-plays-sunday/

Preview for Thursday/Friday round 9: https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/nrl-round-9-value-plays-thursday-friday/

Should be an interesting round with a few team/role changes this weekend!

Been a busy weekend so haven't been posting in here but we'll have the previews up on the site for anyone that's interested. Here's tomorrow's link:
https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/nrl-round-9-value-plays-sunday/

Came 1st in the Dogs Broncos game! Did really poorly in the other games and the slate though. How's everyone else going?

Good work @Dttragic2016 on the win, and rev as well for the Sharks game.

Didn't enter anything today, with soccer season up and going Saturday slates aren't going to happen for me, so taking a back seat for a while. probably just play some Thursday/Friday games going forward

Been entering 1 team per game, biggest win yet tonight. Plenty of smaller wins between 20 and 60 since I started DFS post covid resumption. It's interesting, such small differences in player selection totally changes ur path.

Dttragic2016 wrote:Been a busy weekend so haven't been posting in here but we'll have the previews up on the site for anyone that's interested. Here's tomorrow's link:
https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/nrl-round-9-value-plays-sunday/

Came 1st in the Dogs Broncos game! Did really poorly in the other games and the slate though. How's everyone else going?

Are ur selections in the write up based on calculations or ur own perception ?

Revraiser wrote:

Are ur selections in the write up based on calculations or ur own perception ?

Have hired a data scientist to work through previous years data and build statistical models to project scores. I'm not a technical at all but work with analytics people for work hence the idea to do this. We were going to do an article explaining all this, would that help as a reader?

Dttragic2016 wrote:

Have hired a data scientist to work through previous years data and build statistical models to project scores. I'm not a technical at all but work with analytics people for work hence the idea to do this. We were going to do an article explaining all this, would that help as a reader?

I can appreciate the reasoning to analyse it, but me personally would only ever enter a team or two as its purely based on fun. For $15 and a possible big return or atleast cover a couple of tickets, plus its an addition to loving fantasy and rugby league, adds an interest. I wouldn't select a team based of a study. But would be interesting to read nonetheless.

Revraiser wrote:

I can appreciate the reasoning to analyse it, but me personally would only ever enter a team or two as its purely based on fun. For $15 and a possible big return or atleast cover a couple of tickets, plus its an addition to loving fantasy and rugby league, adds an interest. I wouldn't select a team based of a study. But would be interesting to read nonetheless.

Yep completely understand mate. I've been entering 3-5 teams and have a group with a few mates who enter in 1-3 teams most games and the banter between us makes games much more engaging as you can follow each other's teams as well.

Anyways would be great to keep this thread ticking along, always good to hear how people are going!

bombed out big time this weekend

Exciting weekend of DFS & punting with a few team changes for this round. Should be some real value with some of the depleted forward packs.

Here's the link to our DFS & first try scorer betting preview (rest of the games will be added to the same article later on): https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/nrl-round-10-value-plays/

My first ever Draftstars so I did the free comp for tonight’s game. Ended up with this team:

Rapana
CNK
Manu
Williams
Crichton
Young
Havili
Lui
Papa

$5 here I come

Not entirely sure how this game works.

Waiting until final team lists is prob a good start.

StormTrooper96 wrote:My first ever Draftstars so I did the free comp for tonight’s game. Ended up with this team:

Rapana
CNK
Manu
Williams
Crichton
Young
Havili
Lui
Papa

$5 here I come

Not entirely sure how this game works.

Good start IMO. Best thing about draftstars is that they use (predominantly) the same scoring system as NRL Fantasy so you get a feel for which players should do well quite easily. If you're just making one team, potentially look at the backs from your team mainly being from the same team and based on how you think the game will go. EG. If you think the Roosters smash a depleted Raiders team, try to fit in 4 Roosters backs (or maybe 3 with a Raiders FB or Half).

I've been playing seriously since Covid and just broken even so by no means an expert, but definitely keen to discuss ideas on here and get better over time.

I am finding the only time i have a decent return, or am in the mix at the pointy end is when i have fluked one of the outliers. Aside from everyone just picks the best squad based on 'averages' if you jag a couple of players who hit well above there expected total and they are low % picked, then ur on your way. This can come about by simply going against the grain on purpose. My best result was last week on the back of picking the debutant Staines who bagged 4 tries, plus i had Edwards who setup 3 tries and scored one. Anyway, by all means not a scientific approach but if your entering one team or playing the small games/free games just have a crack and go outside the norm, if you pick a safe team it is going to be a common team.

Revraiser wrote:I am finding the only time i have a decent return, or am in the mix at the pointy end is when i have fluked one of the outliers. Aside from everyone just picks the best squad based on 'averages' if you jag a couple of players who hit well above there expected total and they are low % picked, then ur on your way. This can come about by simply going against the grain on purpose. My best result was last week on the back of picking the debutant Staines who bagged 4 tries, plus i had Edwards who setup 3 tries and scored one. Anyway, by all means not a scientific approach but if your entering one team or playing the small games/free games just have a crack and go outside the norm, if you pick a safe team it is going to be a common team.

Yep agreed. I made 1-2 teams for random games last season and did REALLY badly on draftstars. Was always confused as I thought I was decent at NRL Fantasy.
Last night the winner had Starling. I guess if you thought he could get 40+ mins (I didn't, I thought he'd get around 30 and Havili would play 50 mins hooker and some extra mins at lock if needed), he was a great pick and really allowed you to get other guns in to your team.

Going with your gut and especially on players who are from the team less favoured to win OR a bench player can really pay off.

So got a 10th and a 6th in the 4 comps so far (incl the slate) but have been entering around 5 teams on average this season so still nothing to brag about given how top heavy the prize structure is.

Hoping for a big super Saturday! Any thoughts on a few players or edges that stand out?