NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 49 - Trade Drama Island

Here's our weekly stats article: https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/your-edge-round-8/

If you've got any ideas for stuff you'd like to see for future weeks feel free to PM me
Will post the DFS and first try scorer previews in the DFS thread (we break them up so there are 3 every weekend)

Would you rather

Cleary and Siro/Hetherington( not playing)

Or

DCE and Young (which allows me to choose between young and rudolf for last spot on bench)

Loomer wrote:

Double Banner

A joyous occasion

RandomSil wrote:Why are people trading out Luciano? I mean have you slready offloaded JTB, Luai, Rudolf?

I am looking to offload JTB, Luciano and Luai this round. Think they are all maxxed out in price or close to it.
Luciano could well go for Taumalolo which is obviously a massive upgrade, JTB for Young - player at top of price for player about to rise
And Luai to Niu for cash.

(potentially Mann as well, but probably hold short term and swap for DCE/Moses later)

Still have cover in every position.

mattnz wrote:
Could you please wait a couple of weeks?

Considering it but seems reckless. Would go taupau and likely never bring haas in or have him as a last minute upgrade

Probably taupau and teddy vs RTS and haas

mattnz wrote:

The key difference is that while the price point is similar, the magic number has changed significantly. At the start of the season he was priced at $999k which was 69 points. Now at $972k he is priced at 75 points, using a magic number of 13,000. In games <70 minutes this season he has averaged just 68. Excluding his injury game this season, Twal has averaged 65 for almost $200k less.

If the numbers are all correct here, I actually don't mind the thought process. I've got Haas and Lolo so if the Broncos haven't improved and aren't in it with a shot at the finals and get all their troops back I might look in to this further. Great thought provoking post Matt.

Pookus McFly wrote:

This reeks of you trading out Cook right before he tonned up last year.
You were one of the greatest proponents of Haas pre-season and he has vindicated your claims.
Don’t undo all your good work by trading him out!
There are just a handful of players you can bank on to go 60+ each and every week for a reliable captaincy score. If Haas scores the inevitable try and you are the 1% without him it will be agony

Yes was a huge Haas fan all pre-season, mostly due to potential to increase his minutes (which has happened). Just get the feeling that Siebold won't use Haas for 80 minutes every week when he has the rest of his forwards back, and that changes his output.
I am in this to win it, which means going in a different direction to those that are ahead of you. It may work, it may not, but it gives me a chance that I don't get by keeping Haas.

I was also hoping that they would be trying to create some set plays to get Haas over the try line, but it hasn't happened at all.

I'm hoping Haas gets in for a try in the next couple of weeks, gives a nice $1M+ valuation to trade out, but more concerned that he drops in value from here before the players I want to trade in are available.

I've decided to improve my bench with the extra 2 trades i.e. remove Paix

My trades:
Moses, E. Katoa, JTB, Paix out - Cleary, Robson, H. Young, Fogarty (plays Warriors round 9) in

Grant
Haas (c), Carrigan
Taumalolo, Yeo, L. Leilua
Cleary, Mann
Best, S. Crichton
Tedesco, Ponga, Pappy

Koroisau, Robson, Young, Fogarty
Luai, Niu, HTF, Wiliame

My 2 decisions re my 17 this week are:
(1) play S. Crichton or Niu at starting ctr &
(2) Fogarty or Luai as last reserve

Thoughts & thanks.

No matter what combinations I try, I am always about 3k short of what I want to do!

Man these 4 trades could have come in any other round and I would probably have been able to use them well

Figured out a way to get both DCE and Ponga in, but it leaves plenty of holes elsewhere.

Katoa -> Niu
Drinkwater -> Hetherington
Luai-> DCE
Lucy -> Ponga

25K ITB, 13 trades

Would leave me with

Koro
Hass JTB
Lolo Jurbo Carrigan
DCE Fogarty
Lomax Mitchell
Tedy Ponga Pap

Friend Grant Niu/HTF/Hetherington

Paix Moses Wiliame

Downsides are no clear path to Taupau next week, no halves cover until Moses returns, Hetherington as the only forwards cover, and still 3 red dots.

Not worth it, right?

Can't just have a high ownership gun getting injured for one poor score though. If it's longterm, people will just trade him. If it's a one-off, he goes back to gunning it.

Needs to be one of those hampering injuries that afflicts him every game and gets progressively worse, but instead of informing medical staff, he instead ops to mask it with under the table prescription painkillers.

That will surely fuck up his fantasy scores and owners enough to make up some ground in this game

Currently I am going

Moses, Rudolf, Leilua and JTB to Harris, Lolo, Mofo and Niu

I can bring in Cook over Lolo but that means playing Mata'utia in my 2rf, thoughts?

my tv broke wrote:

There is a temptation for me to turn him into Robson, but it does feel sideways, even though it appears to be a 10pt upgrade.

Luciano had two quiet games but they were both blow outs. I still think he is a 45-50 pt scorer. Some want to exclude his two tries in the first two games, but he is the type of player who will jag tries, hopefully get another one soon!

He has also had 0 attacking stats since R2, which is bonkers!

i'm really stuck on fisher-harris or Jturbo - thoughts?

For what it's worth, as the single biggest "Haas isn't value" proponent, I'm bringing him in this week.

I still stand by the point that he wasn't value at the start of the year, where you could get Taumalolo + cash instead for similar points. However as we move towards final 17s, Haas is 5-10 points better than next best FRF. If you played the long game from the start and grabbed under valued players, rather than milking cows when they still had 50-100k left in them, you would have the extra cash needed for the solid 17 that includes Haas.

Gone Niu Cleary Cook and Young. Wasn't sure on Young 4th trade but probably selling Lucy next week so he can cover that 2RF slot.

Only Cleary Mann at HLF and only Haas Carrigan FRF

Worried about no cover. Taupau or another FRF next week.

Would consider Fogarty instead of Young but still concerned about what happens if Roberts back

Just curious guys, what overall rank do you need to be at this point to have a genuine chance of finishing top 100?

mattnz wrote:

The key difference is that while the price point is similar, the magic number has changed significantly. At the start of the season he was priced at $999k which was 69 points. Now at $972k he is priced at 75 points, using a magic number of 13,000. In games <70 minutes this season he has averaged just 68. Excluding his injury game this season, Twal has averaged 65 for almost $200k less.

I thought Luke Thompson was priced in at 550k, with a BE of 40, which make the magic number around 13750, which then makes Haas priced at 71 not 75. Still works out with your assumptions, but a fair bit closer.

This 4 trades business is very spicy. Making me really think about using all 4 to try and bring in some guns.

Not sure if I should hold Twal or not?

Can do any of these options:

Twal, JMK, Kennedy, Katoa > Cleary, Teddy, Sironen, Niu

Lucy, JMK, Kennedy, Katoa > DCE, Ponga, Sironen, Niu

JMK, Katoa, Kennedy > Cleary, Sironen, Young

JMK, Katoa > Cleary, Niu

If I don't get teddy or ponga I have to play hammer time somewhere in my 17 which is probably no bueno.

I forgot who posted it but the trade out Haas idea reminds me of a while ago when C. Parker was playing prop & he wasn't scoring that well so people sold & then he went large. There was a sc funny video that was done which was hilarious.