NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 49 - Trade Drama Island

multiple.scoregasms wrote:For what it's worth, as the single biggest "Haas isn't value" proponent, I'm bringing him in this week.

I still stand by the point that he wasn't value at the start of the year, where you could get Taumalolo + cash instead for similar points. However as we move towards final 17s, Haas is 5-10 points better than next best FRF. If you played the long game from the start and grabbed under valued players, rather than milking cows when they still had 50-100k left in them, you would have the extra cash needed for the solid 17 that includes Haas.

We have switched sides (but the downvote wasn't me)

No one is going to end up with a perfect 17. Need to find the best value guns for your 17, not those at / above their likely average going forward.

Really stuck on these choices. Done the stats checking and value per $ etc. but just can't decide. Can anyone provide a further opinion?

Cleary v DCE v SJ (other halves are Mann and Luai, trading Moses/Munster out)

Sironen v McIntyre as a cow to bring in this week. Considered Niu but he can wait at least 1 more week without his price shifting much if I need a cash out

mattnz wrote:
We have switched sides (but the downvote wasn't me)

No one is going to end up with a perfect 17. Need to find the best value guns for your 17, not those at / above their likely average going forward.

Agreed there. For me it will mean going value with the likes of Tevaga and RTS rather than Matterson and Ponga. Taupau instead of Haas probably wins for points per dollar, but at some point you need the big guns.

While we don't always agree on strategy I like the way you aren't swayed on your opinion

robelgordo wrote:


I thought Luke Thompson was priced in at 550k, with a BE of 40, which make the magic number around 13750, which then makes Haas priced at 71 not 75. Still works out with your assumptions, but a fair bit closer.

There is the official magic number, then there is the number they are actually using each week to calculate the real BEs and values. 13750 is likely to be the average of all rounds to date including rounds 1 and 2 which would have been in the 14500 range. Since then has been in the 13,000 range (in some rounds in the 12,000s)

Was only going to use 2 trades but I can do Lucy to Tohu Harris this week as well. Leaves me with only 11 trades left but using a trade to upgrade to a keeper is always worth it right?

Something to consider with waiting to finish your team, is how long do you wait?
With 12 weeks left the longer you wait for your final team the less overall points you gain
A 5pt upgrade in 4 weeks is only really 40pts on overall
I know it seems obvious, but you can almost treat now as origin 3 having finished and we are on the run home.

I remember the things that worked for me was getting that team together early while others were pissing around with their last 3-4 players
Steady gains can be made, maybe that is the POD for some teams

Take this example, I keep and play Rudolf (37avg) with the idea to upgrade to Twal (66avg) in 4 weeks. 37x4 = 148 , 66x8 = 528    = 676  
Or I upgrade to a Taupau now for 120k less (56avg) this week, 12x56 = 672
Could wait a week on Taupau but each week is different so 2 trades free next week is worth the 20k lost

Now there are alot of variables with Rudolfs role, Twal returning from injury and maintaining 66 avg and other injuries turning up vs grabbing an underpriced player today liek Taupau and hoping they can simply maintain their average with hope of a few big games (Based on history)

TLDR Now is probably the time to get an overall team together vs waiting on finishing your team later.
Maybe settle for the next tier down if needed than waiting until it's too late

I made peace with my team, 'settled' for a few lesser players but will start my finals run from here.
The only real upgrades I will consider will be better centres (but that is my calculated risk area) with the upgrade to a gun much smaller than other areas

4 trades this week has simply accelerated this, being able to trade in Tedesco/DCE/Robson/Taupau this week

Any thoughts on what I should be doing with this team ?

Koro
Hass carrigan
Arrow Yeo Lucy
Flanno Pearce
Talau niu
Teddy ponga pappy

Grant
Robson
Rfm
Young

Luai
Wakeham
Crichton
Averillo

I'm bypassing Niu and grabbing Talau, I think he looks much more promising and shouldn't get fucked over minutes wise. Also grabbing Sironen just for 2RF cover.

I think now is the time to stock up on the underpriced guns. There is stacks of value under 700k at the moment but those more premium priced players just look so sexy in your squad.

We are still in the first half of the season and all players have plenty of time to turn it around (Yeah, even Milfart)

Boozecluez wrote:Something to consider with waiting to finish your team, is how long do you wait?
With 12 weeks left the longer you wait for your final team the less overall points you gain
A 5pt upgrade in 4 weeks is only really 40pts on overall
I know it seems obvious, but you can almost treat now as origin 3 having finished and we are on the run home.

Take this example, I keep and play Rudolf (37avg) with the idea to upgrade to Twal (66avg) in 4 weeks. 37x4 = 148 , 66x8 = 528    = 676  

Or I upgrade to a Taupau for 120k less (56avg) this week, 12x56 = 672

Now there are alot of variables with Rudolfs role, Twal returning from injury and maintaining 66 avg and other injuries turning up vs grabbing an underpriced player today liek Taupau and hoping they can simply maintain their average with hope of a few big games (Based on history)

TLDR Now is probably the time to get an overall team together vs waiting on finishing your team later.
Maybe settle for the next tier down if needed than waiting until it's too late

I made peace with my team, 'settled' for a few lesser players but will start my finals run from here.
The only real upgrades I will consider will be better centres but that is my calculated risk area but the jump to a fallen gun or another

Stop sounding so James Bondish, I'm scared ur going to crush me in the Sharks league !

I found a way to get Tedesco and Cleary... but it means forgoing Young.

Already have DCE and Ponga

Thoughts...

a)
Drinkwater/Moses/Lucy/Paix OUT
Cleary/Niu/Tedesco/Sironen or Hetherington IN + 11K

Makes my bench Koro, Rudolf, Luai Niu

b)
Moses/Paix/Drinkwater or Rudolf OUT
Cleary/Niu/Young IN + 63K

Makes my bench Koro, Lucy, Young, one of Rudolf/DW/Niu/HTF/Luai/Crichton

Surely b is the more sensible option? Or just go all in for Teddy and Cleary

StormTrooper96 wrote:I found a way to get Tedesco and Cleary... but it means forgoing Young.

Already have DCE and Ponga

Thoughts...

a)
Drinkwater/Moses/Lucy/Paix OUT
Cleary/Niu/Tedesco/Sironen or Hetherington IN + 11K

Makes my bench Koro, Rudolf, Luai Niu

b)
Moses/Paix/Drinkwater or Rudolf OUT
Cleary/Niu/Young IN + 63K

Makes my bench Koro, Lucy, Young, one of Rudolf/DW/Niu/HTF/Luai/Crichton

Surely b is the more sensible option? Or just go all in for Teddy and Cleary

If there's a way to get teddy and cleary and all you've got to do is forgo a mid range cow who you'll have to trade out at a later point, I'd do it.

I think I'm going Croft instead of Young. Gives me HLF cover and with low BE and Warriors Dogs next he makes 120k with 3 game 50 avg. Assuming he doesn't get dropped if they keep losing eek

That said should I get Hetherington as well instead of Niu then I have 2RF/FRF bench cover

Still pondering this

Definite - Moses & Katoa - Cleary & Young

Additional & Absolutely Optional

Rudolf & Lucy - JFH/Jtrbo etc & McIntyre/Niu

Thoughts?

Lucy and Rudolf worth Keeping for another week?

Keep Katoa, Trade Lucy?

Too many options, liked it when my life was simpler

mattnz wrote:
We have switched sides (but the downvote wasn't me)

No one is going to end up with a perfect 17. Need to find the best value guns for your 17, not those at / above their likely average going forward.

Noone will end up with the perfect team, but I think everyone should be aiming for these guys (plus Grant who everyone has)

Haas, Taumaolo, Teddy, Ponga and at least one of McInnes/Cook/Smith
Maybe you can make an argument for Cleary as well, but possibly DCE, fit Moses, couple others might go close enough.

They are all significantly better than next best options.

But on trading out Haas - even with the bonus 2 trades I think that is a risky use of a trade (2 if you plan on getting him back in later)
We've seen injury can strike hard in a round. I'd rather have Haas and a trade than Tauapau, $200k and no trade

Shady2K wrote:Really stuck on these choices. Done the stats checking and value per $ etc. but just can't decide. Can anyone provide a further opinion?

Cleary v DCE v SJ (other halves are Mann and Luai, trading Moses/Munster out)

Sironen v McIntyre as a cow to bring in this week. Considered Niu but he can wait at least 1 more week without his price shifting much if I need a cash out

I did a TU/TD on Sironen vs McIntrye, was 6-0 to McIntyre. I'm still going Sironen anyway lol. Also waiting for next week on Niu, he's going to 212k or very close again.

I can't really offer much on the halves. Haven't really looked at Cleary as can't see away to bring him in any time soon.

Revraiser wrote:

Stop sounding so James Bondish, I'm scared ur going to crush me in the Sharks league !

Haha I am miles behind, will just let it play out now. Not much more I can do
This year has been a bit like that, haven't had a chance to look at any spreadsheets or really plan things out
Having it almost set and forget will be nice for a while

11k in bank

Grant
Haas (C) Taupau
Matterson Yeo Murray
DCE Mann
Crichton Talau
Tedesco Ponga Papenhuyzen

Koroisau,McCullough,Robson,Carrigan

Fogarty,Luai,Averillo,Tabuai-Fidow

Fogarty 18th man
Luai to Niu next week possibly freeing up 200k for Mann to Moses

Gut feel based on the way the Panthers are playing/structured around him is that Cleary is going to continue to average a bit higher than the other halves. Not a huge amount but enough to warrant getting him in.

ME:

Katoa ---> Niu
Rudolf ---> Young
Moses ---> Cleary
Wiliame ---> Tedesco

Hopefully get Pearce and a low-priced half next week for Luai and Lucy.

Anyone interested in Shane Wright? I forget why he is in the team? Is he in there on merit?

For RnT's team my trades will be:
W. Hopoate, Drinkwater, Paix, Wiliame out - Ponga, Niu, B. Sironen, Farnworth in

Grant
Haas (c), Fotuaika
Taumalolo, Yeo, L. Leilua
Cleary, Fogarty
L. Mitchell, S. Crichton
Ponga, Pappy, Farnworth

Friend, Koroisau, Robson, Carrigan
Luai, Niu, B. Sironen, HTF

It only leaves 5k bank but the 2 extra trades allowed me to get rid of Paix & Wiliame because there were no real issues with his team other than W. Hopoate & Drinkwater.

Thoughts & thanks.

Someone talk me out of Hetherington instead of Niu. He could get 40 mins with that bench. He wouldn't be a late out right? No point loaning from Panthers then not using