2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

Welshy87 wrote:




Well done















BASTARD

Chewie wrote:I've been following the Fantasy thread like a fly on the wall for a few days... I thought I'd might as well join the discussion. Pleased to meet you all!
Here's a short introduction:
This is my 3rd year in the comp... ended up just outside the top 5000 last season and hope to have learned from my mistakes this time around.
Best achievement in nrl Fantasy was #26 in the Australia-NZ test Match last year

Still beat SI's rank.

Random wrote:

Chewie wrote:I've been following the Fantasy thread like a fly on the wall for a few days... I thought I'd might as well join the discussion. Pleased to meet you all!
Here's a short introduction:
This is my 3rd year in the comp... ended up just outside the top 5000 last season and hope to have learned from my mistakes this time around.
Best achievement in nrl Fantasy was #26 in the Australia-NZ test Match last year

Still beat SI's rank.

Believe it or not I finished rank 1455. I know right! Who would have thunk it.

Thoughts on mansour whether he is worth the price tag

Klemhammer wrote:Thoughts on mansour whether he is worth the price tag

Nailed on in my team mate, can't see him losing money and massive potential there

yeah im going to go Mansour over Gordon i think

Shanbon wrote:yeah im going to go Mansour over Gordon i think

In order of preference, how would you rank fergo and Slater along with those 2?

Is it worth having someone like Russell Packer or Brenton Lawrence as an NPR or would you downgrade them to a starting price player and use the difference to upgrade scoring players?

Shanbon wrote:I've only really covered the basics but surely there is some application to initial squads, we all talk about PODs. Milchy might be able to correct me here but if you have 2 players who you think will score similar your chances of winning are better by selecting the least owned player

Player A projects to avg 52 and has 40% ownership
Player B projects to avg 49 and has 15% ownership

Player B gives you the highest % to win in a tournament situation (not h2h)

Only problem with this is you aren't playing against the whole competition. Realistically there is only 500 coaches capable of winning before the season starts and that number gets smaller as the season goes on

Milchcow wrote:

But I have never really applied it to fantasy. Can't see how it would be relevant for initial team selection, more useful for stuff like captain choice, final trades at the end of the season if things are close (Like PGC in the closing rounds last year)

I don't know, deciding between which two players to trade in can feel an awful lot like the Monty Hall problem. That is the real reason why I switch my team around so much- mathematics tells me to! >_> <_< >_>

SoylentGreen wrote:

In order of preference, how would you rank fergo and Slater along with those 2?

My preference is Mansour, Gordon, Slater, Fergo, Mann in that order. Mansour has been a gun, injury prone last year. Panthers didn't go that well.
Gordon playing 80, Eels score more tries than Sharks so points for goals
Slater may bounce back and has an easier draw at start. Not long ago he started the year with a handful of doubles and was carving.
Fergo and Mann, think Jack Wighton of last year but not as good (will be frustrating but still make a little bit)

Can I have some advice on my latest draft;

Smith, Lichaa (did have segy but getting lichaa allowed me to get Trobjevic/NPR instead of BLawrence/Alvaro)
Bromwich, Graham, Trobjevic, NPR
Merrin, JDB, Rochow, Tapine, Whitchurch, Chee Kam
DCE, Hastings, Taylor, JNik
Croker, Auva'a, NPR, NPR (looking at J Littlejohn, B Henry, A Crichton etc)
Mansour, Gordon, Gutherson, NPR, NPR

Obviously have gone done the gun/cash cow route but will depend on whether there is enough base price cash cows come TLW

i havent seen smith in many sides, is he a POD now?

he was my first picked. at this stage that hasn't changed. full off season for a change he should be fresh for the start of the year. whats everyones thoughts? are people actively steering away or just seeing similar points out of segey/etc for lesser cash.

Been doing some reading on game theory in fantasy

Here's a good article
http://www.pokernews.com/news/2014/11/game-theory-can-make-you-money-in-fantasy-football-too-19910.htm

But basically the idea is that you pick someone like James Maloney over Johnathan Thurston.
Thurston is more likely to score well, but he'll also be much higher owned so if Maloney outscores him you are suddenly in a good position.

Works a lot better in daily fantasy than a week to week comp, as the chances of Maloney outscoring JT is much better for a single week than over the whole season. And why I think a POD strategy is not that useful in fantasy as we play it here, but can be useful in daily fantasy.

It's also why there was a bit of controversy last year in US daily fantasy with employees found out getting inside info of player selection percentages from rival sites. If you know the ownership percentages you can work out the best combination of low ownership vs scoring potential.

Klemhammer wrote:Thoughts on mansour whether he is worth the price tag

The concern is injury rather than scoring potential.

Warriors wrote:Can I have some advice on my latest draft;

Smith, Lichaa (did have segy but getting lichaa allowed me to get Trobjevic/NPR instead of BLawrence/Alvaro)
Bromwich, Graham, Trobjevic, NPR
Merrin, JDB, Rochow, Tapine, Whitchurch, Chee Kam
DCE, Hastings, Taylor, JNik
Croker, Auva'a, NPR, NPR (looking at J Littlejohn, B Henry, A Crichton etc)
Mansour, Gordon, Gutherson, NPR, NPR

Obviously have gone done the gun/cash cow route but will depend on whether there is enough base price cash cows come TLW

I think the switch you made with Lichaa and grabbing JTurbo is very wise mate, Lichaa is at worse 5-10 points worse than Seg, But JTurbo is probably 10-15 points more than Lawrence/Alvaro

Great hooking combo
Great Front row
Great second row, although im not massively sold on JDB
Not a huge fan of the Gun and 3 cashie half route but thats just personal preferance
Can see why you have gone Croker, GUN ctr but a little too up and down for me, Raiders will have to go very well for his avg to increase much more
Good WFB with potential

Milchcow wrote:
Been doing some reading on game theory in fantasy

Here's a good article
http://www.pokernews.com/news/2014/11/game-theory-can-make-you-money-in-fantasy-football-too-19910.htm

But basically the idea is that you pick someone like James Maloney over Johnathan Thurston.
Thurston is more likely to score well, but he'll also be much higher owned so if Maloney outscores him you are suddenly in a good position.

Works a lot better in daily fantasy than a week to week comp, as the chances of Maloney outscoring JT is much better for a single week than over the whole season. And why I think a POD strategy is not that useful in fantasy as we play it here, but can be useful in daily fantasy.

It's also why there was a bit of controversy last year in US daily fantasy with employees found out getting inside info of player selection percentages from rival sites. If you know the ownership percentages you can work out the best combination of low ownership vs scoring potential.

Shanbon sent me some links a few months ago and it was great reading but I'm not at all convinced it can really be used over 26 rds. With the growth of cash games I'll definitely be using it for them though, I also do horse racing comps on topbetta which are similar to the daily games and its been a help there.

Anyone want to have a guess at the Knights backline for rd1?

Krump wrote:Anyone want to have a guess at the Knights backline for rd1?

Mamo full back
Aku and Ross on the wings
Gagai probably Chanel Mata'utai

They may move a second rower into the centres if Chanel isn't ready until Sione comes back from his one week suspension.

Surprised Memo isnt suspended, last time I saw him he was trying to fight anything that moved.