2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

Beast From The Big East wrote:

Agree with that pick. But picking Fifita over Surgess because of less ownership is different than picking someone lesser valued as a POD and justifying it with less ownership so they are both smart picks.

In my mind you could call it optimal picking. Yes you should pick players with less ownership as if they do well you and only a select few benefit. But choosing Fifita over Surgess is smart picking. If Fifita does well then you see a greater rankings increase. But if Fifita does poorly, he still scores well. And if he gets to the point where he scores poorly (for his standards) consistently and you trade him, he is still priced high enough that he is an easy trade to a gun.

You flip that on it's head and look at someone less than Surgess like Tyson Frizell who you may back to increase points this year. If he does poorly he scores you much worse than what Fifita would if he were to do poorly. You hold out for a few weeks so you don't do anything rash and waste trades early on. If he drops close to 400k then you have to then somehow come up with 100k to get yourself that gun. Both ways you come out better than the pack if your POD goes off, but if you choose the higher priced POD then it allows you some safety net

Have said all along you need your main research first and for most but imo it's a good strategy to go with less ownership when splitting your choices assuming projection is within a few points. At this stage I think you can really only apply this to guns but going forward it should be used for trades and (c) choice

and while I am pestering everybody, may as well show my current non-3-rookie-half team. Pretty similar build. Probably what I will go with gameday (assuming TLT pans out for my picks like Edwards etc.)

Smith (Lichaa)
Woods Graham (Lawrence) 130k
Fensom Merrin Rochow (Edwards) Henry
DCE Jrey (Hastings) Taylor
Hurrell Avua'a Gutherson 130k
Ferguson Gordon Mann Anderson 130k

If there is no 2nd hooker in Raiders come TLT, i will switch Lichaa to Hodgson and upgrade Mann to Mansour.

First team that I've done for the year... Will undoubtedly change it a few times as I'm not real happy with my reserves currently but thought I'd put it out there for a critique from you lot.

Smith Lichaa/Granville (depending on team lists)
JBrom Graham Ah Mau Nuffie
Parker Friz Whitehead Benry Nuffie Nuffie
DCE Hastings Taylor JNiko
Copley Auva'a Nuffie Nuffie
RTS Gutherson Ferguson Mitchell Nuffie

As I said, real light on in the reserves so may off load RTS yet and change it up but relatively happy for the first draft.

Shanbon wrote:

Have said all along you need your main research first and for most but imo it's a good strategy to go with less ownership when splitting your choices assuming projection is within a few points. At this stage I think you can really only apply this to guns but going forward it should be used for trades and (c) choice

Agreed. Works much better down the line when you are making decisions against a certain group such as in the top 100 and picking a low owned player to try and get a leg up. Perhaps you could say that when making your initial team that some PODs are better than other PODs regardless of the fact that a 450k POD should theoretically be of the same points/per $ value as that of a 350k POD as an expensive POD always has a safety net.

Pookus McFly wrote:and while I am pestering everybody, may as well show my current non-3-rookie-half team. Pretty similar build. Probably what I will go with gameday (assuming TLT pans out for my picks like Edwards etc.)

Smith (Lichaa)
Woods Graham (Lawrence) 130k
Fensom Merrin Rochow (Edwards) Henry
DCE Jrey (Hastings) Taylor
Hurrell Avua'a Gutherson 130k
Ferguson Mansour Gordon Anderson 130k

If there is no 2nd hooker in Raiders come TLT, i will switch Lichaa to Hodgson and upgrade Mann to Mansour.

A good 15 but the scores of Lawrence & Edwards will let you down.

Pookus McFly wrote:

Lol, Jake. Gimme some credit bro

Well you do support the Rabs mate

White Lightning wrote:
A good 15 but the scores of Lawrence & Edwards will let you down.

I agree. But if they play they are cows that I don't want to pass up, and I dont believe in having extra money tied up in NPRs. If I downgrade guns to upgrade them, I will just end up with all mid rangers

Welshy87 wrote:

Well you do support the Rabs mate

Aha, well that's true. Bet you won't be laughing so hard when we edge you out of 13th place this year!

Pookus McFly wrote:

Aha, well that's true. Bet you won't be laughing so hard when we edge you out of 13th place this year!

I support the Warriors bud so that is entirely possible haha

Welshy87 wrote:

I support the Warriors bud so that is entirely possible haha

Not a chance, dem Warriors gunna go boom this year! A spine to rival Melbourne's so called "big 3", Manns, Hoffman- fantastic 2nd row; and with Vete and Lisone well blooded last season, I think the age-old warriors' problem of switching off in games will be negated by those young hungry forwards. I really can't see them missing the 8 this year, and surely even top 4 possible.

I still think the best single half of football I have ever seen from a forward pack was the semi final in 2011 when the Warriors pretty much held the Storm trapped in their own half for the entire second half to defend their lead. Melbourne was cool at first, never occurred to them that they wouldn't even get a chance to strike at the other end. Became more and more frustrated as the game went on and they were kicking from their own end every time. Think they finally made it down there with 5 to go and had a failed dig. Warriors forwards just had too much intensity that day. I was at the grand final that they got into, when they lost to Manly that year. Hurt to see them lose that day, because I always thought that if the team from that semi final showed up, they would have really had a decent shot. Or maybe my dislike of Manly just made it seem all the worse

So everyone foaming over the Warriors. I'm not convinced. Luke is always suspended. RTS played behind a Roosters pack that went forward but now he's playing behind a pack that goes backwards.

White Lightning wrote:So everyone foaming over the Warriors. I'm not convinced. Luke is always suspended. RTS played behind a Roosters pack that went forward but now he's playing behind a pack that goes backwards.

Might be selling them slightly short mate I think RTS is a gamebreaker on his own, he might not have the season he did last year but still wins games on his own, Luke may or may not missing games i can't see having a huge effect, he is back home now hopefully he takes the leaderhip role on more

I think one of the most important factors will be Robson if he starts directing the team around and keeping a cool head

I still curse the day we let SST go! Absolute bunch of morons!

White Lightning wrote:So everyone foaming over the Warriors.

You can't deny they have recruited extremely well. On paper they easily have a top 8 side. Simply put they have to be playing finals footy in 2016. No excuses.

White Lightning wrote:So everyone foaming over the Warriors. I'm not convinced. Luke is always suspended. RTS played behind a Roosters pack that went forward but now he's playing behind a pack that goes backwards.

Yeah but this will also for the most part make up the spine of the NZ team. Playing rep footy as a unit always seems to bring players to another level both individually and as a team. The "big 3" in the storm, as skilled as they are, attribute much from the fact that they also play together as QLD and AUS. It makes them better players and a better combination. And it will do the same for the Warriors. May not factor in as much this season, but I expect very big things from this pack. If it clicks from the get-go like Broncs 2015, I would not be surprised. Warriors have always been strong starters, right?

Pookus McFly wrote:

Yeah but this will also for the most part make up the spine of the NZ team. Playing rep footy as a unit always seems to bring players to another level both individually and as a team. The "big 3" in the storm, as skilled as they are, attribute much from the fact that they also play together as QLD and AUS. It makes them better players and a better combination. And it will do the same for the Warriors. May not factor in as much this season, but I expect very big things from this pack. If it clicks from the get-go like Broncs 2015, I would not be surprised. Warriors have always been strong starters, right?

Broncos didn't click from the get go in 2015, rather we were absolutely thrashed in round 1.

Welshy87 wrote:

I think one of the most important factors will be Robson if he starts directing the team around and keeping a cool head

I still curse the day we let SST go! Absolute bunch of morons!

When news of his trade broke, I remember thinking what a smart buy Robson was for NZ based on his potential pairing with Johnson. SJ always needed a Robson, a Mullen, or a Hodkinson as the purputrator of a steady pace to balance out his 'off-the-cuff' livewire football (and also by reversing this logic, makes the match of Hodkinson and Mullen a poor one IMO, but that's another argument). On paper, Robson is a fantastic match. Very keen to see how it pans out in practice.

Yeah poor decision with SST, would certainly be looking a better pack with him included

Milchcow wrote:

I've had Tolman the past coupler years purely because he's been cheaper than Graham and they typically score similarly.

This year Graham is cheaper so I'm boarding his train

2 years (I think?) ago I started the year with both Graham and Tolman. Might consider it again.

Bren wrote:

Broncos didn't click from the get go in 2015, rather we were absolutely thrashed in round 1.

I know, I was there cheering the bunnies on!

But I mean from a season perspective, few thought they would start gelling as quickly as they did. Sure they lost round 1 (to be fair, it WAS to the minor premiers who enjoyed a fabulous preseason and couldn't have lost if they tried at that time), but they also won their next 5 straight, and only lost 2 from the next 17 rounds. I would call that clicking from the get go in 2015.  Roosters also did similar in 2013 after they purchased SBW, Jennings and Maloney that year (also losing to Souths in round 1 also!). Sometimes a team takes time to settle in, and sometimes they just seem to work.

Edit: Difference was that the Roosters actually managed to get over the line that year, and the broncos came up bupkis.
Sorry Bren

Eh, you win some ya lose some. Also the NZ recruits have played together before so they should gel quickly and produce results straight off the bat. Unlike Milford who took some time to make the position his own after making a permanent switch from FB.

I'm a bit worried that I don't have many guns, but I'm liking the look of my first team (that wasn't created in Mich's spreadsheet) - Thinking there's plenty of undervalued players in this bunch:

Segeyaro (Lichaa)
S.Burgess Woods (James) Pauli
Cartwright Sue Rocho (Tapine) Henry Fitzgibbon
Mullen Soward (Hastings) Taylor
Brown Hurrel Auva'a Chee-Kam
Slater Mamo Mansour Gutherson Nuftie=Hopefully Shannon Walker