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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 4 - Leniu is back on the menu

    Jumping Marlin
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    Post by Jumping Marlin Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:13 pm

    ChrisMnz12 wrote:Any advice on my team please

    Randal
    Finucane , cheese , bullemore
    Aitken,  bird
    Ilias , Cleary
    Scrit , berry
    Campbell , cnk , Hynes

    Amone , tago , Schneider,  Savage
    K heth  , Nani,  Pereira,  Davey

    276k itb for room to upgrade / trade when the wheels start turning

    Not bad, can find an argument for most of the tear. A few thoughts on weaknesses.

    Why Finucane? He won't become a gun and I can't see him making enough $$$
    K Heth now out with covid by sounds
    Davey may not be named
    Not a single gun in the HKR, MID, EDG and no back up captain option.
    Too much $$ unspent

    Lemmy KGB
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    Post by Lemmy KGB Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:16 pm

    mrbrownstone wrote:

    Even if he does get a round 1 start, how confident are you he'll be there round 4? Screams Cini 2.0 to me, but we'll see.  

    Cini was a blatant trap. If they are named round 1 I assume they will get a decent crack (unless its clearly short term injury cover)
    Jumping Marlin
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    Post by Jumping Marlin Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:18 pm

    Mulvy wrote:

    I've been trying to figure this out also. A counter argument: Let's say you start with Ipap, and by rd8 you've accumulated enough funds to turn Nanai into Crichton. Do you really want to buy a guy who's going to miss 2-3 games in the next few weeks? Alternatively you start with Crichton, by round 8 you have the funds to turn Nanai into Ipap, an excellent idea given he's a gun who'll only miss one game the rest of the year. That then gives you the option of trading out Crichton over origin should you wish, whereas in the previous example you wouldn't trade in a player in rd8 only to trade them out over origin. Right?

    Advantage Angus??

    Far out - every time you think you worked out a little bit more in this game, someone puts a sound argument to show you've got more to learn!!   Smile

    The counter-counter argument:  what if you instead turn Nanai into Mahoney? or Tohu Harris if you insist on an Edge?
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    Post by mattnz Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:18 pm

    https://theniche-cache.com/rugbyleague/2021/12/12/aotearoa-warriors-dont-lack-centre-vibes-adam-pompey-rocco-berry-and-viliami-vailea
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:22 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Cini was a mid-season stop-gap, not the center they may choose to start a new season with.

    Fucking Roberts!
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:30 pm

    mattnz wrote:https://theniche-cache.com/rugbyleague/2021/12/12/aotearoa-warriors-dont-lack-centre-vibes-adam-pompey-rocco-berry-and-viliami-vailea

    Based on that you'd lock Berry in one centre position and expect to see Pompey named the other side with Vailea snapping at his heels.
    Either way, enough competition in those spots especially if you consider Aitken could move back - steer clear.
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:47 pm

    Jumping Marlin wrote:

    Dunno if this works, but I was thinking about it this way:

    > they are both keepers, so you want to hold all year;
    > the other one you don’t get now you’ll want to get later;
    > you think (I assume) they’ll average about the same;
    > one plays Origin so is more likely to not play on a key bye round. 1 less game overall
    > one plays origin so is more likely to get a rest, which reduces his price and becomes the cheaper pick up of the two later in the year

    Advantage ipap?



    I feel like we should be treating Ipap the same way we treated Surgess at his peak

    - DPP to cover middle and edge
    - No chance of playing origin
    - Plays in a good team so unlikely to spend 30 minutes under his post watching shots at goal
    - Posts keeper level scores due to base with the occasional try
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:55 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    We have seen peak Haas (playing 80 or close to it every week), and peak Crichton.

    We haven't see peak Fifita yet. PPM of 1 last season, while being lazy a lot of the game.

    A fit Fifita getting 80 minutes, the sky is the limit for this 22 year old superstar.

    Fifita scored 17 tries in 21 games. That's a better try scoring rate than Brett Morris, Billy Slater and the same as Alex Johnston for their careers

    Either Fifita is going to be the greatest try scorer of all time or his try scoring rate is going to come back to earth. Pretending that it's without a doubt option 1 is misleading at best
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    Post by mattnz Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:02 pm

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    Fifita scored 17 tries in 21 games. That's a better try scoring rate than Brett Morris, Billy Slater and the same as Alex Johnston

    Either Fifita is going to be the greatest try scorer of all time or his try scoring rate is going to come back to earth. Pretending that it's without a doubt option 1 is misleading at best

    The other team can see him coming and not be able to stop him with 3 tacklers.
    Name a better try scoring EDG.
    The only one I can think of that would come close is Menzies.
    Short of injury, we are going to see an 80 minute Fifita go on a massive try scoring run as he comes into his prime. Whether it is this season or not remains to be seen.
    No one expected Turbo or Cleary's amazing seasons last year. If Fifita has things come together this year, he can emulate that kind of scoring.
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:04 pm

    Noooo not again!
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:12 pm

    Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

    Fucking Roberts!

    2021 lesson: Steer clear of Tigers' CTRs
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:14 pm

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    I feel like we should be treating Ipap the same way we treated Surgess at his peak

    - DPP to cover middle and edge
    - No chance of playing origin
    - Plays in a good team so unlikely to spend 30 minutes under his post watching shots at goal
    - Posts keeper level scores due to base with the occasional try

    The one lingering issue I have with IPap is he went from low 40s to 65 average as 2RF moving from Warriors to Eels. I know, different club/coaching, more assured role, confidence etc. But I still find it hard to comprehend that a nearly 25ppg scoring improvement is a new normal. I feel there will be some regression - still keeper level, but maybe not "value". Or I'm overthinking it.
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    Post by TherealTimSimona Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:19 pm

    Up for Team 1, Down for team 2

    Randall
    Lolo/Tapine/Haas
    Fifita/Leilua
    D.Brown/Sexton
    Tago/Cotric
    Hynes/Berry/Crighton

    Penisini/J.Simpkin/Ilias/Bullemor

    A.Fifita/M.King/W.Smith/Schneider - 12k ITB


    or same team except

    MID: AFB/Tapine/Haas
    EDGE: Leilua/Nanai

    WFB: Hynes/Pappy/Crighton - 153k ITB

    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:23 pm

    filthridden wrote:

    Based on that you'd lock Berry in one centre position and expect to see Pompey named the other side with Vailea snapping at his heels.
    Either way, enough competition in those spots especially if you consider Aitken could move back - steer clear.

    Yeah, that's what I'm taking from it. Feels like reading too much into a trial team list (that didn't even run out!) to try to manufacture a 240k cow.

    Berry, Pompey, Vailea, Aitken, Arthars are all in the mix, or Montoya could move to CTR and bring another winger in. When the Warriors inevitably lose a few in a row there will be reshuffles.

    Also, he's a rookie Warriors centre and when he did get a start last year scored 12 in 80 mins. Easy pass.
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:24 pm

    robelgordo wrote:

    The one lingering issue I have with IPap is he went from low 40s to 65 average as 2RF moving from Warriors to Eels. I know, different club/coaching, more assured role, confidence etc. But I still find it hard to comprehend that a nearly 25ppg scoring improvement is a new normal. I feel there will be some regression - still keeper level, but maybe not "value". Or I'm overthinking it.

    Quite the opposite - you are underthinking it.

    He shifted from being primarily a MID and secondly an EDG at the Tigers to being almost exclusively a strike attacking EDG.

    His average minutes went up from 56 to 67 and I expect are they will be on the increase for this year, and score raised from 40 to 63 per week.

    Beyond that he was surrounded by a team that identified, played to and valued his strengths, which was not really happening at the Warriors. Change in role, culture, and time on the field. I predict that iPap will average 70 this year without too much worry
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    Post by mrbrownstone Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:25 pm

    TherealTimSimona wrote:Up for Team 1, Down for team 2

    Randall
    Lolo/Tapine/Haas
    Fifita/Leilua
    D.Brown/Sexton
    Tago/Cotric
    Hynes/Berry/Crighton

    Penisini/J.Simpkin/Ilias/Bullemor

    A.Fifita/M.King/W.Smith/Schneider - 12k ITB


    or same team except  

    MID: AFB/Tapine/Haas
    EDGE: Leilua/Nanai

    WFB: Hynes/Pappy/Crighton - 153k ITB


    So it's AFB, Nanai, Pappy vs Lolo, Fifita, Berry?

    Tough one but I'm probably taking the option with Fifita.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:33 pm

    The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

    Quite the opposite - you are underthinking it.

    He shifted from being primarily a MID and secondly an EDG at the Tigers to being almost exclusively a strike attacking EDG.

    His average minutes went up from 56 to 67 and I expect are they will be on the increase for this year, and score raised from 40 to 63 per week.

    Beyond that he was surrounded by a team that identified, played to and valued his strengths, which was not really happening at the Warriors. Change in role, culture, and time on the field. I predict that iPap will average 70 this year without too much worry

    iPap averages specifically as starting 2RF
    2021: 65 in 70 mins
    2020: 41 in 74 mins - this was the season he came off the bench as lot, presumably as a MID, so small sample
    2019: 44 in 78 mins - almost exclusively 2RF
    2018: 44.5 in 75 mins - almost exclusively 2RF, excluded a 7 min game (injury assumed)
    (mins rounded down)

    That's what I was looking at. Even with the qualitative factors in your last para, it's an extraordinary leap. From average fantasy stats for the position to the 2nd highest scoring fantasy forward
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:33 pm

    robelgordo wrote:

    The one lingering issue I have with IPap is he went from low 40s to 65 average as 2RF moving from Warriors to Eels. I know, different club/coaching, more assured role, confidence etc. But I still find it hard to comprehend that a nearly 25ppg scoring improvement is a new normal. I feel there will be some regression - still keeper level, but maybe not "value". Or I'm overthinking it.

    This is the only reason I'm still leaning towards Crichton

    IPap doesn't have the runs under his belt to convince me he is here to stay(although he is a really good player). Having to trade out one of your "season keepers" after 5 weeks because they have gone from 60s to 40s is season ending
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:38 pm

    I will select this young Schneider fella for no other reason than it reminds me of Zoids. Schneider was one of my favourite weapon/armour schemes for Liger Zero.

    Time for a wee binge I think.
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    Post by thelastdodo Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:40 pm

    I am tossing up Starling vs Simpkins as 2nd hooker (luv my hookers)

    With Fog out do we expect more minutes for Starling or

    Hodson to get more minutes as experienced playmaker to help out rookie?


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