SoylentGreen wrote:Does Jack Williams benefit from BHU's absence?
A little, but not from his own inept nature
NRL Fantasy Fanatics - A place for discussion of NRL Fantasy / Virtual Sports / Super Coach and other Fantasy Sports
SoylentGreen wrote:Does Jack Williams benefit from BHU's absence?
Revraiser wrote:
A little, but not from his own inept nature
Jumping Marlin wrote:Horsburgh is potentially the kind of player I miss every year. So, just checking to see what I am missing:
- What Minutes Will He Play and Who's Minutes Is He Getting :
In 2022, the three big mids were Elliot (54.9mins as starting lock), Tapine (50.9), Papa (49.3). That leaves 84.9minutes for 3 reserves at 28mins each. (Horse was taking about 40 of these).
In 2022, Elliot started lock in 13 games. With average of 54.9mins, not once did he play over 70. He played over 65mins only once.
If he is an Elliott replacement, does that mean he gets around 54 minutes too? Or is he different, and he gets more? Say 70, like last 3 weeks?
In 2023, Tapine (49.3mins), Papa (47.0 as starting prop) are about the same as 2022. If Horse gets 70mins, then that leaves only 73mins for 3 reserves (24 mins each). Is it that there is no strong fourth reserve this year, and that's why Horse gets the minutes?
- 2:
Over his career his PPM gets lower the longer the minutes.
<30mins = 1.03ppm
30-40mins = 1.01
40-50mins = 1.00
50-60 mins = 0.93 (a marked drop here)
60+ = 0.90
He has only had 5 games over 60, so a small sample size too. If I calculated this before last weeks game, easily his highest ever fantasy score, the 60+ would be 0.85ppm. Personally, I think that's more realistic.
- 3:
Horse is priced at about a 47 average.
> If he gets Elliot's minutes and keeps his historic ppm, he'll score 51. Not a keeper.
> If he gets 70 minutes (Elliot + 15), and keeps 0.9ppm, he'll score 63. A keeper.
> If he gets 70 mins at 0.85ppm (more likely imo), he'll score 60. A keeper.
Personally, I keep thinking best case is perhaps 65mins at 0.85ppm = 55.
TLDR: To be worthwhile, Horse seems to need 10 more minutes than Elliot got as starting lock without much drop off in ppm. Why will get this?
syn13 wrote:
I think you’re overthinking it, It’s not like Horse is being looked at coming off an anomaly week minutes-wise, he has gotten 15 more minutes than Elliot in the last 3 games with no influencing injuries involved, that about as much of a consistent sample as you’re likely to get in this game if your intention is to buy underpriced, of course there’s a chance minutes change if the Raiders start dropping games, but that goes for nearly every forward in every team,I think there’s more chance JDB drops minutes before Horse does.
syn13 wrote:Will be interesting to see if clubs are taking Suncorp’s surface into account when naming teams today, could be a few scheduled to return this week with leg-related injuries that get held back a week for fears of re-aggravation on a rough track.
Being almost bottom of the table and losing every game JDB has started there?wolfking wrote:
Based on what?
Shady2K wrote:Reports Lomax to be dropped
Shady2K wrote:Reports Lomax to be dropped
Shady2K wrote:Reports Lomax to be dropped
wolfking wrote:
Based on what?
MF wrote:
I brought him in this week so would be lucky if they don’t name him today rather than finding out on game day
Bird to centre Hunt and BMM the second row?
Shady2K wrote:Reports Lomax to be dropped
the_great_wobbler wrote:
Wonder how bad their second choice goal kicker is
the_great_wobbler wrote:
Wonder how bad their second choice goal kicker is
syn13 wrote:
Nothing concrete, 80 minute locks are just very rare, I can only think of Yeo and early season Harris of the top of my head, when Su’A returns from injury, both he and Bird are usually full-game edges and I don’t think 11,12 and 13 all playing 80 minutes is likely. To be clear I have him, so selfishly I hope it continues, but I expect he’ll settle somewhere in the 60-70 minute range at some stage
Welsh Mafia wrote:Thanks @camo123 for the origin clarity.
For players in camp, that don't make the 17 on game day, is there a chance they make it to play in rounds 13/16/19?
the_great_wobbler wrote:
Wonder how bad their second choice goal kicker is