NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 53 - Back to the footy!

AL wrote:Am I the only idiot still hodling Trbo whilst his stocks plummeted?

Bastard finally comes good after all this time, has a BE of 2 and is going to be MIA for the best part of 2 months. My big brain play was he’d miss origin selection and THEN get the banner this week for Hal’s Haasholes.

Can someone please tell me he is a definite trade out - I seem to be irrationally wed to him.

I kept him too in the hope he'd be playable this round. He finally rewarded the patience but I'm going to turf him this week as he misses the next two and four of the next seven.

WT Winfield wrote:

I'm trading Carrigan and holding Haas.

NSW hasn't needed Haas to play big minutes in the past and I think Young + Friz will be EDG with Murray, Martin, Paulo and whats his name.. TPJ playing in the MID rotation. Haas can still bang out big scores even with reduced minutes when backing up.

I was always planning to trade Carrigan this week, but the big score made me pause for a moment. A couple of 50s peaks at +30k after 2 games. 55s is +45k over 2-3. So I don't like that as a reason to hold. I think both he and Haas will have some reduced minute games, with Carrigan's scoring more affected between the two.

Those same numbers would see Haas losing significant coin. So while Carrigan might only make a bit, Haas may lose a lot.

Mulvy wrote:

I see that. Would you play Crossland or Niko? Note Niko plays first. I could loop, but I'm really scared they'll fuck it up, even though they say auto-replacements apply.

Niko for me. Lower floor but higher ceiling.

edit: I'd risk the looping

Carrigan, Haas & HTF out for Cook, Hopgood & Ponga with a 260k surplus. Will definitely be bringing Haas back when I feel the time is right, maybe Carrigan too

Cook
Tapine, JDB (C?), Horse
Hopgood, Lemmy
SJ, IKat
Bird, Timoko
Ponga, Drinkwater, X

Rank 48 but should climb more with a strong round 13? Some of the teams near me look fucked for this round

Down to 10 trades after this round so maybe it's me who is fucked

Snatchpato wrote:I'm only considering trading out Haas because I don't have JDB.

I understand that I'm very late to the party, and that JDB is coming close to the top end of his price, but I never in a million years expected him to be averaging 60s let alone 70s. I don't see how I can compete this year if I don't have him in my side. 

It seems somewhat sideways, but with all the games Haas will miss, and the uncertainty around his 14/17/20 round minutes, I think JDB is the go (especially because NSWRL basically gave him the finger).

What do you guys think?

Go for it, it’s the exact move I am making this week.
Don’t get caught up looking at the past and the missed value. He’s cheaper than Haas, likely to score more points than Haas over the next 7 weeks, still has a low BE and the new coach has faith in him as an 80 minute player and team Captain.

It’s not sideways. It’s logical.

wolfking wrote:

Haven't looked that far ahead but probably Robson and JFH are first thoughts.

If you're going to target Robson, is it worth not just bringing him in now rather than Cook?

GreenSchist wrote:
Go for it, it’s the exact move I am making this week.
Don’t get caught up looking at the past and the missed value. He’s cheaper than Haas, likely to score more points than Haas over the next 7 weeks, still has a low BE and the new coach has faith in him as an 80 minute player and team Captain.

It’s not sideways. It’s logical.

Thanks man, I appreciate the feedback. Makes sense, but of course can't shake the feeling I'm gunna break JDB...
Apologies in advance if I do everyone (I'm probably going to captain him too )

Welsh Mafia wrote:

If you're going to target Robson, is it worth not just bringing him in now rather than Cook?

I'd like to see if Robson can improve first but getting Cook who is a keeper in his position in a bye round at sub 700K is something you can't pass up. Just means I should be set for hookers come round 16. Unless I want to get Grant back somehow.

Jele wrote:

Those same numbers would see Haas losing significant coin.  So while Carrigan might only make a bit, Haas may lose a lot.

Does it matter if Haas loses money if you've decided you're going to keep him all season? If you have enough trades to play "sell high, buy low" then fair enough, but think I'll only sell him if he's missing games rather than losing coin. A Round 14 decision.

Snatchpato wrote:
Thanks man, I appreciate the feedback. Makes sense, but of course can't shake the feeling I'm gunna break JDB...
Apologies in advance if I do everyone (I'm probably going to captain him too )

Almost guaranteed to happen now haha.
One last tidbit, JDB is probably one of the only guys I’d bring in for Haas. He’s averaging 68 points when he gets at least 60 mins this season. Additional to the well established concerns with Haas over Origin, Kevvy will likely be cautious with his Progon players, based on how the Broncos collapsed last season.

Fingers crossed for you and I both!

rhinoceroo wrote:

Does it matter if Haas loses money if you've decided you're going to keep him all season? If you have enough trades to play "sell high, buy low" then fair enough, but think I'll only sell him if he's missing games rather than losing coin. A Round 14 decision.

Agreed, but I've got 20 trades (16 after making four this week), so I'm hoping to buy him back later. I didn't get on Miller, Hosking, Loeiro early in the season, so feel like I need to make up for some lost cash generation.

I'm still not sure which way I'll go between Carrigan and Haas. Like others, Carrigan was a sell for me before he put up 97, on the basis that he wasn't necessarily an end of season keeper unlike Haas.

Getting down to the pointy end in terms of trades most will be in single digits after this week. Add in the 8 you get for the back end that means conservatively 4 players in your 21 man squad are there for good.

I don't know about everyone elses team, but there are still a few cows I'd like to milk. That means the likes of Haas will be staying for me.

Only way I'd be doing it is if you can get a genuine locked in keeper (Cook, Moses, SJ top of the pile for me). Guys who are reliant on current role like Hopgood, JDB, Horse if their role reverts and Haas is catching 20 points a week in the back end

Jele wrote:

Agreed, but I've got 20 trades (16 after making four this week), so I'm hoping to buy him back later.  I didn't get on Miller, Hosking, Loeiro early in the season, so feel like I need to make up for some lost cash generation.

I'm still not sure which way I'll go between Carrigan and Haas. Like others, Carrigan was a sell for me before he put up 97, on the basis that he wasn't necessarily an end of season keeper unlike Haas.

This is the exception. Churn and burn Jele

Jele wrote:

Agreed, but I've got 20 trades (16 after making four this week), so I'm hoping to buy him back later.  I didn't get on Miller, Hosking, Loeiro early in the season, so feel like I need to make up for some lost cash generation.

I'm still not sure which way I'll go between Carrigan and Haas. Like others, Carrigan was a sell for me before he put up 97, on the basis that he wasn't necessarily an end of season keeper unlike Haas.

Similar thoughts.  I have 2 less trades than you but think I can do it. I mean, 3 out of the last 4 games he hasn't hit 60 so while he can banner, on any given day there is loads of players hitting similar number for less coin and will be scoring more points over the next 7 weeks.

Mulvy wrote:

I have similar concerns for whichever Eels forward I bring in. Seems a bye rounds play and worry about it later, the rd27 bye is awkward. I expect whoever I pick will be serviceable but unless I jag the right one, will be a trade out in rd 20/21ish for someone better like Yeo, but probably won't be able to afford it, and end up holding which wouldn't be the worst.

I think I'm holding Hosking this week, for the same reason you are looking to hold Loiero, rd16 is tough ay? Boyd doesn't play it though, has peaked.. offers value in rd19 but that's ages away, I'm not sure it's worth the hold?

Haas, as I said, could go either way. Massive motor. I can see a world where you trade him out because of origin and he backs up and banners. Unlikely, but that's what we said about Cook being available...

Yep same thoughts/concerns re Eels forwards, will probably get Hopgood anyway as he's such a top option for 13 and 16 but he could be a trade out again as early as rd17/18 if RCG and Matto are back. Starting to get hairy committing two trades.

wolfking wrote:

Similar thoughts.  I have 2 less trades than you but think I can do it. I mean, 3 out of the last 4 games he hasn't hit 60 so while he can banner, on any given day there is loads of players hitting similar number for less coin and will be scoring more points over the next 7 weeks.

Yep, making money is all well and good, but the main goal is scoring the most points. So I guess the question is whether we can score more points with the Haas money elsewhere.

Jele wrote:

Yep, making money is all well and good, but the main goal is scoring the most points. So I guess the question is whether we can score more points with the Haas money elsewhere.

I think I'm taking the bye round approach this year of quality over quantity.  I've played before where I thought I was ahead cause I had enough numbers but 3 of those players were shit and combined for 45 points.  So Swapping him for a Hopgood or SJ makes sense to me.

I may still look at other options to keep but I think this year more than most, the less Origin players over this period the easier it will be to navigate.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Getting down to the pointy end in terms of trades most will be in single digits after this week. Add in the 8 you get for the back end that means conservatively 4 players in your 21 man squad are there for good.

I don't know about everyone elses team, but there are still a few cows I'd like to milk. That means the likes of Haas will be staying for me.

Only way I'd be doing it is if you can get a genuine locked in keeper (Cook, Moses, SJ top of the pile for me). Guys who are reliant on current role like Hopgood, JDB, Horse if their role reverts and Haas is catching 20 points a week in the back end

This is where I'm at with Haas (and Carrigan). 13 trades left after making three but it just doesnt seem necessary to trade out one of those guns.

I'm punting BS9, Miller & Boyd so it does make it easier to hold the others. After grabbing Harris Hopgood and Ponga, I have 10 players with empty spots at edg/ctr/wfb.. really can't see anyone worth grabbing. If i can flick Burbo to someone equally cheap I might do that with 4th trade. Fainu is no use to me as I already have 3 mids.

Little surprised by the interest in Drinkwater, but I just saw he scored 57 last week. haha that explains it. I'd rather just hold off and grab Tommy Turbo at some point soon to go with Tedesco/Walsh/Manu/Bula.. I really don't need more WFBs as it is

My 10 this week are
Cook
Tapine Horsburgh Harris
Hopgood Bird (could shift to ctr if i grab another edg)
SJ Niko
Lemu x
Ponga x x

Its a reasonably strong 10 with just Niko the only 'shitto', fingers crossed Ponga fires up, but seems like most are grabbing him anyway.

Holds: Cleary Haas Carrigan Tedesco Walsh Preston Manu Bula ?Alamoti? Oloapu ?Burbo?

I've got 171k in the bank but maybe that is put to better use by upgrading someone (preston) to Fifita. Funnily enough I could go Alamoti to Ford (move Bird to ctr) for 130k, which is very tempting in isolation. I'm rolling with no hooker cover but hopefully that isn't an issue until round 16 bye.

I feel like there are a lot of sideways trades being posted, some people are trading in multiple mid range guys while not having many trades left.

Still think I`m going to grab Robson over Cook.

Just makes sense Bye wise and saves another Hooker trade.

Hoping he can go back to those big scores.

my tv broke wrote:I feel like there are a lot of sideways trades being posted, some people are trading in multiple mid range guys while not having many trades left.

I feel like the bye rounds this year are uncharted territory; I have a pretty strong round 13 but my 16 is ass (quality and quantity) and I don't really feel great about keeper options available for 19 either.

In some ways I think I'd genuinely feel better if my shittos were front loaded in this round and I could start the transition to a complete team before 19