NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 23 - End the season now, Tigers are in the 8

Mulvy wrote:

I don't get it.

Facetious!

Reklaw wrote:

This. He's cheap enough that ill be holding, may even play him over Burbo. Hell average out in the 30s. Surely you have other losers to go? Lussick? Smithies? Toops? Burbo? Salmon? Levi (prob gets a stay of execution)?

On another note, I captained Hoppo after rubbishing someone elses play of captaining McInnes. Felt bad. Good job whoever that was, karma almost kicked me in the nuts when Hoppo got dropped to the bench - was fuming  

I don't know if you were rubbishing me (usually a valid strategy) but I captained big Cam. Hoppo a good captain. Basically, any forward with a solid base is going to be a viable captain, and we just hope for an up game, which we both got

Aardvark wrote:What's going on?

Stayed away this weekend as my team was a disaster and I didn't want to get all uptight about an imaginary game.

Anyway didn't disappoint, lost about 7000 places to be around 18.5k and totalled 675 from 16.

One thing I have noticed is that picking my second  or third favourite option in order to avoid early byes has definitely not paid off. Overthink about money making and early points has played a big part this season to date.

I think a new creative approach to trading might be in order (after the Galvin news definitely can't afford to to hold red dots even for a week or two).

Let's see where I can get to from here.


Also @Rev is a menace....

Just throw Ur team in the AI mixer, sorted.

the_great_wobbler wrote:

Getting Lussick instead of Galvin last week has had such a snowball effect.

After trades this week it will have cost at least 100k, 60ish points and a trade, plus the opportunity cost of being behind in "tempo" for grabbing good options.

I didn't bring in KPP this week in order to grab a WFB to field 17 (Kiraz over Gutho because I valued the DPP and bye schedule but that's looking like being wrong too). Which means I probably need to grab KPP next week which means I can't evict a different shitto this week etc etc . . .

That said Lussick looked like a similar option the week before, potential semi-keeper 80 min hooker for 500k - that's great! So I don't think it was a bad trade at the time but will have quite a big effect on the outcome of the season.

Honestly, not sure how you couldve passed on Lussick after week two. He was coming off two good scores with increasing minutes and no sign of Hands on the bench. That coupled with the preseason hyperbole made the perfect mix to bring him in as a cut price hooker who you could at worst ride up to a better hooker. he just went on to shit the bed. he historically scores well when getting the minutes. im actually not sure how he even scored a 28 and 22 in 80 and 60 minutes... he isnt missing tackles like Mahoney either, just seems to only be making 25-30 tackles a game. someone mentioned earlier that all hooker scores across the board were down with teams looking to play wider. i wonder if this corrects itself as we get into the season

actually, just quickly flicking through a few of the top hookers (Grant, Koro, Cook, Mahoney) it seems they are down a few tackles per game but not at the Lussick level. between Hands and Lussick in 2023 - when playing over 50 mins a game - they averaged around 40 tackles a game... i dont watch Eels games close enough to offer any better insights, maybe teams are just finding it easier to go around the Eels to start the season?

TLDR: Lussick sucks

For me the plan this week is Burbo and Sitili to KPP and Ponga, putting my 533k cash to good use.

Team post-trades:

Speaking of captains, who are we all running this week? Surely no one doubles down on Turbo against the Panthers.

For the base fellas:

Fogarty
Hopgood
Grant
Bodyslam
Tohu
Murray
Yeo
CARRIGUN

For the "matchups"

Ponga v Dragons
Teddy v Bulldogs
Papy v Broncos
Drinky v Titans (not that many have Drinky)
Robson v Titans

Personally, I'm leaning Fogarty or Hopgood, however they both play on Sunday night so I might have to VC Papy

Lussick and Smithes -> Gutho & Dylbags

Two boring players to two fun players with great upside for a bit.


Going to let Talagi go through to the keepers. Point's are at a premium currently and with an OR of 12k, can't be chasing just the cash. Talagi other than his first run was around a 20 pt scorer and does not have nearly as much involvement as Galvin at the tigers. Could easily have sub 20 games.

All I'll add re Lussick is the eye test, he scored a try and he's 28. Bye for now. I'll get my coat.

Snatchpato wrote:Speaking of captains, who are we all running this week? Surely no one doubles down on Turbo against the Panthers.

For the base fellas:

Fogarty
Hopgood
Grant
Bodyslam
Tohu
Murray
Yeo

For the "matchups"

Ponga v Dragons
Teddy v Bulldogs
Papy v Broncos
Drinky v Titans (not that many have Drinky)
Robson v Titans

Personally, I'm leaning Fogarty or Hopgood, however they both play on Sunday night so I might have to VC Papy

This is (C)arrigan erasure and I will not stand for it

Snatchpato wrote:Speaking of captains, who are we all running this week? Surely no one doubles down on Turbo against the Panthers.

For the base fellas:

Fogarty
Hopgood
Grant
Bodyslam
Tohu
Murray
Yeo

For the "matchups"

Ponga v Dragons
Teddy v Bulldogs
Papy v Broncos
Drinky v Titans (not that many have Drinky)
Robson v Titans

Personally, I'm leaning Fogarty or Hopgood, however they both play on Sunday night so I might have to VC Papy

Will probably go with lovely Patty again although Cook and Terrell are tempting also.

Reklaw wrote:

Honestly, not sure how you couldve passed on Lussick after week two. He was coming off two good scores with increasing minutes and no sign of Hands on the bench. That coupled with the preseason hyperbole made the perfect mix to bring him in as a cut price hooker who you could at worst ride up to a better hooker. he just went on to shit the bed. he historically scores well when getting the minutes. im actually not sure how he even scored a 28 and 22 in 80 and 60 minutes... he isnt missing tackles like Mahoney either, just seems to only be making 25-30 tackles a game. someone mentioned earlier that all hooker scores across the board were down with teams looking to play wider. i wonder if this corrects itself as we get into the season

actually, just quickly flicking through a few of the top hookers (Grant, Koro, Cook, Mahoney) it seems they are down a few tackles per game but not at the Lussick level. between Hands and Lussick in 2023 - when playing over 50 mins a game - they averaged around 40 tackles a game... i dont watch Eels games close enough to offer any better insights, maybe teams are just finding it easier to go around the Eels to start the season?  

TLDR: Lussick sucks

I bought him for the last 2 weeks so have watched pretty closely, here are my insights:

Round 3 - game flow was terrible for middle scoring. Top tackle count was Lussick with 29, and then Hopgood with 25. He "almost" scored some attacking stats which would have boosted him comfortably over 40, but not to be.
Round 4 - game flow was good for middle scoring, but not for Lussick. He missed a bunch of tackles by getting bumped, I think he was 4 of Utos 5 tackle busts in pretty quick succession. My read is that he was intended to play close to 80 minutes, but got gassed making tackles (and missing tackles) in the middle, so BA gave him a rest. If we give him 2 of the missed tackles back (he averages 2.5 a game) he would have had 26 tackles in 60 minutes. If he played 80, add on an extra third tackles ( ~8 ) and he gets over 32 tackles. Still, with all this fantasy hocus pocus, he only gets to ~ 36 points. Pretty poor. Just not getting the attacking stats he needs to be a viable hooker tbh.

tldr: I agree with Reklaw in that Lussick sucks, until he doesn't. In any case I don't think I'm going to be sad to sell him.

Snatchpato wrote:Speaking of captains, who are we all running this week? Surely no one doubles down on Turbo against the Panthers.

For the base fellas:

Fogarty
Hopgood
Grant
Bodyslam
Tohu
Murray
Yeo

For the "matchups"

Ponga v Dragons
Teddy v Bulldogs
Papy v Broncos
Drinky v Titans (not that many have Drinky)
Robson v Titans

Personally, I'm leaning Fogarty or Hopgood, however they both play on Sunday night so I might have to VC Papy

TMay is going to steamroll that Dogs pack, going in for his first meatie of the year, 5 OFH, first banner of the year in a 45 minute performance with an early shower

Snatchpato wrote:
I don't know if you were rubbishing me (usually a valid strategy) but I captained big Cam. Hoppo a good captain. Basically, any forward with a solid base is going to be a viable captain, and we just hope for an up game, which we both got

i was just bitter about McInnes, ive been trying to trade him since round one. in hindsight, with the injuries, hes a great option. high base forwards are always going to be safe. i do hope you had a better week than me though

Bethany_B wrote:

This is (C)arrigan erasure and I will not stand for it

BCT05 wrote:

Will probably go with lovely Patty again although Cook and Terrell are tempting also.

My deepest apologies for leaving out the glorious Carrigun. Edited.

Not sure if mentioned but apparently Xerri coming in for Bulldogs with Kiraz switching to wing. Guess we find out for sure soon.

In other news, thinking of fixing centres by bringing in Aitken on the assumption that the Dolphins are winning and he's playing well and he'll keep Lemu out even when fit, plus the Dolphins have the best bye schedule from now, so be warned everyone, don't do that.

Aardvark wrote:Just on Lussick (and yes I fell for it).

I think this situation backs up the old 'gut feel' thing and the fact that if the historical evidence says players are pedestrian scorers then they will probably end up being pedestrian scorers regardless of changed roles or increased minutes.

This seems to be particularly applicable in the Eels forward pack.

I was unenthusiastic on Lussick (because he is Lussick rather than any other reason) but was also nervous about having Bsmith as my only HKR. The 80 minute thing convinced me to put this aside in a moment of weakness but the reality is he is still Lussick and Brad Arthur is still Brad Arthur.

The moral is stay strong or something.

in
round 1 this year, Lussick got his first ever try assist in the NRL
In Round 2 he made his first ever offload (and his 3rd ever line break)

He's just not an attacking stats guy and some of us just all got excited by a couple of above average scores that in hindsight weren't very sustainable (and should have noticed in advance as well). Really need him to be a tacklebot to rack up any sort of score and he's the sort of guy who often has a fantasy score less than his tackle count.

The moral is be careful trading in someone on the back of 1 or 2 higher than average games and just assume the good times will continue. Sometimes it pays off, but often it doesn't

Reklaw wrote:

i was just bitter about McInnes, ive been trying to trade him since round one. in hindsight, with the injuries, hes a great option. high base forwards are always going to be safe. i do hope you had a better week than me though    

Haha I probably did, got a 790. Pretty chuffed with the last couple of weeks, been fairly lucky in that I haven't gotten super unlucky.

Also on Lussick, Hands only came into the team when Cartwright was ruled out. If Carty was fit would Lussick have played 80? Or was bringing Hands in always a plan.


And Tigers not only left Jayden Sullivan on the bench for the whole game, but Asu Kepoa also got 0 minutes. Not sure if that will continue every week, but it was a lot of minutes to go round in the forward pack for those who did play.

Snatchpato wrote:Speaking of captains, who are we all running this week? Surely no one doubles down on Turbo against the Panthers.

For the base fellas:

Fogarty
Hopgood
Grant
Bodyslam
Tohu
Murray
Yeo
CARRIGUN

For the "matchups"

Ponga v Dragons
Teddy v Bulldogs
Papy v Broncos
Drinky v Titans (not that many have Drinky)
Robson v Titans

Personally, I'm leaning Fogarty or Hopgood, however they both play on Sunday night so I might have to VC Papy

I have Fog, Grant, Termaynator, Murray

All seems much of a muchness... like 3 will score between 58 and 63, and the one I captain gets 49.

Milchcow wrote:

in
round 1 this year, Lussick got his first ever try assist in the NRL
In Round 2 he made his first ever offload (and his 3rd ever line break)

He's just not an attacking stats guy and some of us just all got excited by a couple of above average scores that in hindsight weren't very sustainable (and should have noticed in advance as well). Really need him to be a tacklebot to rack up any sort of score and he's the sort of guy who often has a fantasy score less than his tackle count.

The moral is be careful trading in someone on the back of 1 or 2 higher than average games and just assume the good times will continue. Sometimes it pays off, but often it doesn't

My mistake in my analysis is that it was too broad.

I did calculations based on historical PPM and minutes. Hands wasn't in the picture when making these calculations as well, so I thought the minutes would be a safe bet. He was a buy based on my minutes v historical PPM calculations, but I didn't take into account the changes in the game since the majority of his games were played in the NRL. To be fair, it's only been 4 rounds, but it really doesn't seem like the game for the hookers anymore. Furthermore, Lussick is playing for a team which has Brown, Gutho, Hopgood, and a 5/8 who are all demanding the ball. It's not like he's Grant or Api who are one of the chief playmakers.

Ultimately, I'll chalk it up to a mistake and rose-tinted glasses thinking. Willing to cut my losses now (only a trade in the grand scheme) and try and jump on a better prospect.