2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 38

Spreadsheets

BE:

Bye Planner




2017 Stats Breakdown (Current up to round 3)
https://www.mediafire.com/?guprpt6xuiq9dpm

2016 Stats Breakdown
https://www.mediafire.com/?t8gqrkac3r1tomk

2015 Stats Breakdown
http://www.mediafire.com/file/fkxlw0139cvc529/2015_Prozone_stats.xlsx

Price Predictor
http://www.mediafire.com/file/urcieiozcujhuvo/Price_predictor%282%29.xlsx





Threads of Interest

Milchcow's Stats/Spreadsheets/Break Evens
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t128-stats-spreadsheets-etc-break-evens-for-2017-now-included

Round 4 Discussion Thread
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t468-round-four

Boozecluez, Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy Coach
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t420-trials-and-tribulations-of-an-nrl-fantasy-coach-2017-the-booze-empire-strikes-back-results-update-06-03


Player Profile - Welshy
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t486-poster-profiles-welshy

Auto-Fill League
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t436-wags-autofill-league

SpotTheOzzie's Weekly NRL Fantasy Video
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t444-nrl-fantasy-fanatic-new-fantasy-video-every-wednesday-with-analytical-breakdown[/size]

Bullshit there was nothing to see there - your ScarJo post was fucking brilliant.

Post of the year already!!!

Bump post from this arvo and last thread

Here is my spitballing thoughts on half planning.

I'm reserved to Pearce playing origin. He is upwards trending in price probably for another week or two after which I trade him to a bye friendly Norman who I ride with Munster and KNiks replacement.

After origin I see how Pearce goes and consider bringing him back in once he struggles to meet the high BE aghast he has set for himself. Risk is that I don't have the discipline to retain the funds to buy him back at the end of it, but hopefully I'll cash in a Post-origin Elliott anyways.

I know people are talking about keeping Fifi or not, but what about the same for Pearce. Too many trades ?

After bringing in Munster this week, I'll be down to 21.

BroncHose wrote:Bump post from this arvo and last thread

Here is my spitballing thoughts on half planning.

I'm reserved to Pearce playing origin. He is upwards trending in price probably for another week or two after which I trade him to a bye friendly Norman who I ride with Munster and KNiks replacement.

After origin I see how Pearce goes and consider bringing him back in once he struggles to meet the high BE aghast he has set for himself. Risk is that I don't have the discipline to retain the funds to buy him back at the end of it, but hopefully I'll cash in a Post-origin Elliott anyways.

I know people are talking about keeping Fifi or not, but what about the same for Pearce. Too many trades ?

After bringing in Munster this week, I'll be down to 21.

I think 21 is reasonable, that means you have saved 4 trades. There will be a lot who will be down to 16 in Round 10 and knowing they have to start saving.

Also, that is my issue with trading Smith out over Origin, I may not have the funds to get him back in.

BroncHose wrote:Bump post from this arvo and last thread

Here is my spitballing thoughts on half planning.

I'm reserved to Pearce playing origin. He is upwards trending in price probably for another week or two after which I trade him to a bye friendly Norman who I ride with Munster and KNiks replacement.

After origin I see how Pearce goes and consider bringing him back in once he struggles to meet the high BE aghast he has set for himself. Risk is that I don't have the discipline to retain the funds to buy him back at the end of it, but hopefully I'll cash in a Post-origin Elliott anyways.

I know people are talking about keeping Fifi or not, but what about the same for Pearce. Too many trades ?

After bringing in Munster this week, I'll be down to 21.

In a better position than me, down to 19 trades once I trade hess to brown.

A Tigers forum that I visit has proven itself to be quite accurate in the past when it comes to rumours but at the end of the day these are only rumours and not yet substantiated.

Firstly, the Tigers are being linked to a few players but no word on how far negotiations have progressed. Players include, Lolohea, Alex Johnson, Hopoate, Connor Watson, Aiden Guerra and Russell Packer.

Again this is also a rumour but someone posted there about some chatter on the Roosters forum  that Teddy hasn't signed yet and there was a chance he may not.

Apparently he and Moses have moved into an apartment together and want to keep playing footy together so supposedly Parra have offered him a lucrative deal. To sweeten the deal for the Tigers and and to encourage them to release Moses, they are offering them Beau Scott and Gutho.

It's all happening if its true but I'm not too sure about this last one, it sounds like it may be true but I dont know.  I'm just passing on what I read.

gonna throw up my team cos not sure what to do atm

smith - brailey
fifi - faufusi - easye - musgrove
gal - JDB - Bodene - chrichton - stone - fai
norman - cwalker - fogerty - hampton
smat - leilua - idris - scott
cotric - rts - slater - abbey - suli

and got 279k to play with

i was originally gonna upgrade brailey but another 50 has made me think twice

any suggestions

mango wrote:A Tigers forum that I visit has proven itself to be quite accurate in the past when it comes to rumours but at the end of the day these are only rumours and not yet substantiated.

Firstly, the Tigers are being linked to a few players but no word on how far negotiations have progressed. Players include, Lolohea, Alex Johnson, Hopoate, Connor Watson, Aiden Guerra and Russell Packer.

Again this is also a rumour but someone posted there about some chatter on the Roosters forum  that Teddy hasn't signed yet and there was a chance he may not.

Apparently he and Moses have moved into an apartment together and want to keep playing footy together so supposedly Parra have offered him a lucrative deal. To sweeten the deal for the Tigers and and to encourage them to release Moses, they are offering them Beau Scott and Gutho.

It's all happening if its true but I'm not too sure about this last one, it sounds like it may be true but I dont know.  I'm just passing on what I read.

Apparently Brooks lives with them as well. Would be very happy with Gutho, Beau Scott for a year maybe as a bit of a mentor as well. But Lolohea would be pretty cheap and he is so damned versatile.

lewis9966 wrote:gonna throw up my team cos not sure what to do atm

smith - brailey
fifi - faufusi - easye - musgrove
gal - JDB - Bodene - chrichton - stone - fai
norman - cwalker - fogerty - hampton
smat - leilua - idris - scott
cotric - rts - slater - abbey - suli

and got 279k to play with

i was originally gonna upgrade brailey but another 50 has made me think twice

any suggestions

Looking real strong at a quick glance. FRF is where you could spend the money to prep for the bye rounds. Easye still has a bit of money to make over the origin period. Without looking at numbers - can Musgrave go to Surgess (via Fai) or Tolman/Graham (although the last one can wait a couple of weeks to save the money).

Idris will be back next game, so you have sufficient redundancy in the backs. WFB - You could consider when to bring in Munster (for Cotric / Suli) if you're keen on him to give you some DPP action with Walker.

BroncHose wrote:

Looking real strong at a quick glance. FRF is where you could spend the money to prep for the bye rounds. Easye still has a bit of money to make over the origin period. Without looking at numbers - can Musgrave go to Surgess (via Fai) or Tolman/Graham (although the last one can wait a couple of weeks to save the money).

Idris will be back next game, so you have sufficient redundancy in the backs. WFB - You could consider when to bring in Munster (for Cotric / Suli) if you're keen on him to give you some DPP action with Walker.

It looks strong but not really been performing

Do you reckon I would be better leaving brailey and strengthen the rest?

Like the munster trade and tempted to wait a couple of weeks for graham like you say

Need advice on this shit:

Smith, (Brailey)
JWH, Kaufusi, (Yates, nuff)
Crichton, Surgess, Whitehead (Bodene, Stone, Simpkins)
SJ, Cleary, (nuff x 2)
BJ, Smats (M.Jennings, Cotric)
Slater, RTS, Tedesco, Hayne, (nuff)

18 trades left only, no money.

No cashies have really capped out except for Cotric who I guess I should hold anyway.
Can probably only afford 2-3 trades to deal with round 12 I guess.

Was thinking Tedesco to Munster since he will probably play Origin. And with the extra little cash Cleary to Norman. That gives 1 more round 12 player and 1 less Origin player.

Not sure if there are better trades available.

lewis9966 wrote:

It looks strong but not really been performing

Do you reckon I would be better leaving brailey and strengthen the rest?

Like the munster trade and tempted to wait a couple of weeks for graham like you say

Brailey is still getting you sufficient points and cash too. I traded him to Hodgson a couple of weeks ago (before Seggy broke his arm) and Brailey scored better than him - so yeah, you can leave brailey for the time being.

I should add - you need to think about how you'd go to munster as both Suli and Cotric have low BEs and cash to make, so they might not be the best trade-outs.
Perhaps Abbey? if you can afford it. Just seems a waste of the low BEs.

robloomes wrote:Need advice on this shit:

Smith, (Brailey)
JWH, Kaufusi, (Yates, nuff)
Crichton, Surgess, Whitehead (Bodene, Stone, Simpkins)
SJ, Cleary, (nuff x 2)
BJ, Smats (M.Jennings, Cotric)
Slater, RTS, Tedesco, Hayne, (nuff)

18 trades left only, no money.

No cashies have really capped out except for Cotric who I guess I should hold anyway.
Can probably only afford 2-3 trades to deal with round 12 I guess.

Was thinking Tedesco to Munster since he will probably play Origin. And with the extra little cash Cleary to Norman. That gives 1 more round 12 player and 1 less Origin player.

Not sure if there are better trades available.

Thats a tough one. FRF needs some work. But despite the Origin concerns with Teddy, I'd look to keep what guns you have or else you'd risk not getting them back. Revisit that thought once teams go into camp - he can keep scoring for you till then.

Cleary to Norman (albeit bye planning and form wise smart) seems too sideways.

No cash and minimal trades is going to make it hard.

Yates and JWH have pretty much peaked (if yates continues form the bench).They may be ready to become a cheaper Graham/Tolman as soon as you can. I've got nothing else - work the FRF to see what you can milk.

SI wrote:

Apparently Brooks lives with them as well.  Would be very happy with Gutho, Beau Scott for a year maybe as a bit of a mentor as well.  But Lolohea would be pretty cheap and he is so damned versatile.

He really isn't, just because he's been played in a bunch of positions doesn't mean he should be. He's played a bunch of times on the wing but it's very clear he isn't a winger. He's played at fullback but it's also become clear he shouldn't be there. There's a reason he's now in reserves while the Warriors play shit guys like Maumalo.

robloomes wrote:Need advice on this shit:

Smith, (Brailey)
JWH, Kaufusi, (Yates, nuff)
Crichton, Surgess, Whitehead (Bodene, Stone, Simpkins)
SJ, Cleary, (nuff x 2)
BJ, Smats (M.Jennings, Cotric)
Slater, RTS, Tedesco, Hayne, (nuff)

18 trades left only, no money.

No cashies have really capped out except for Cotric who I guess I should hold anyway.
Can probably only afford 2-3 trades to deal with round 12 I guess.

Was thinking Tedesco to Munster since he will probably play Origin. And with the extra little cash Cleary to Norman. That gives 1 more round 12 player and 1 less Origin player.

Not sure if there are better trades available.

Save some trades in my opinion, you never know what cows/cash outs are going to be available come round 12 and you have nearly used half your trades and we aren't even close to being half way through the season.

Frol wrote:
Whilst trade talk is hypothetical for the next week, how about these particularly shitty statisticians that seem to be on the job? Or not on the job, depending how you look at it.

Having played fantasy nrl for many years now, I've never really paid much attention to the scoring statistics for individual players, mostly due to never really being in contention. Having paid much closer attention this season, I'm surprised how inconsistent the scoring is. There is a lot more luck involved in what an individual player can score in any given week than there should be.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's an easy job with 26 players on the field but it needs improvement, a lot of improvement. I mean a tonne load of improvement.

Yes? Or overreaction following a shitty scoring week? (Not to mention losing my main H2H by 14)

SI wrote:Yeah we all get grumpy with it every now and then. Like you say, tough job, but would personally prefer they took longer reviewing games. That may not be financially viable though.

I think a good improvement would be the TA and the Last Involvement or whatever it is in SuperCoach. Reward one or the other, but reward one of them each try so it has to be given, that in my mind is a good start.

Just on all this, a couple points.

1) Prozone was acquired by Stats in 2015 from what I can see. That makes me wonder whether the lads in Palmerston North still have the same resources they used to and therefore whether the quality / consistency of their stats are as they used to be.

2) I don't think these guys deserve any kind of sympathy for the 'tough job' they have to do. Its a shitty job doing game stats, but guys, they have a contract to do it and get paid accordingly. They should do the job they have contracted to do. Any apathy towards poor quality statistics just contributes to a continuation of poor stats in the future.

I've sent a message to the head of the NRL stats operation via linkedin. It was just a polite request for clarification on a couple matters and given I am also involved in sports analysis in NZ, out of professional courtesy I would expect a reply. I'll let you know if I get one.

Anyone else looking to cash out Kelly to MWZ? Banks 100k and should have a first grade spot for the rest of the year to potentially make a bit more cash. If he is a spud then you might get another 30 points in some bye rounds. Best part of this trade for me is that instead of playing Kelly/Talakai each week and sitting one of Suli/Cotric I can play them both

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Anyone else looking to cash out Kelly to MWZ? Banks 100k and should have a first grade spot for the rest of the year to potentially make a bit more cash. If he is a spud then you might get another 30 points in some bye rounds. Best part of this trade for me is that instead of playing Kelly/Talakai each week and sitting one of Suli/Cotric I can play them both

Yep - I've done this until it changes next week.
Although I had Kelly in CTRs and Cotric in WFB, so It means I lose my Reserve option in WFB. If Hayne, Slater or RTS go down in the next two weeks, I'll either need MWZ to step up or cashout / Trade somewhere. I'll probably look to double trade Gutho or Walker in by the Bye rounds though so I can rotate them with Munster.

Whats the story with MWZ? He's a certain starter now?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:



Just on all this, a couple points.

1) Prozone was acquired by Stats in 2015 from what I can see. That makes me wonder whether the lads in Palmerston North still have the same resources they used to and therefore whether the quality / consistency of their stats are as they used to be.

2) I don't think these guys deserve any kind of sympathy for the 'tough job' they have to do. Its a shitty job doing game stats, but guys, they have a contract to do it and get paid accordingly. They should do the job they have contracted to do. Any apathy towards poor quality statistics just contributes to a continuation of poor stats in the future.

I've sent a message to the head of the NRL stats operation via linkedin. It was just a polite request for clarification on a couple matters and given I am also involved in sports analysis in NZ, out of professional courtesy I would expect a reply. I'll let you know if I get one.

That would be awesome, let us know if you get a reply