2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 40

wolfking wrote:

I haven't even thought about upgrading him but didn't realise he was over 700K now.  Could go straight to Fifita.

I know right? Straight to Taumalolo for me.

Are people worried about burning trades on guys like Capewell when they might only be worth while for a few weeks?  I have 22 trades and know some of you guys would have less but I'm freaking out already and just keep trying to tell myself to get keepers and try and skip on guys only getting spots for a few weeks.  I could be looking too much into it though.

So.....I'm a bit confused about the B/E of players and their prices
I know it's probably just because it's a Monday and my brain hasn't kicked into gear yet but if anyone can shed light on things that would be great

Is the B/E on the main Fantasy site correct (using the coach setting)? Just seems that players prices didn't match what their stated B/E's were
Will give some examples soon but you can probably easily see yourselves that the actual B/E was different
Makes it a pain trying to plan if it's not right...I'd probably sell someone sooner if I knew their actual B/E was higher than stated

Some examples...player name....Rnd 9 B/E.....Rnd 9 score......what happened with their price
Matterson 34 39 down $4k
RFM 34 43 up $2k
C. Smith 43 37 down $19k
C. Murray 43 53 up $3k
Hiku 34 27 down $15k

Just seems like the players that went up only went up a small amount and the ones that went down went down heaps - even with Matterson who got higher than his B/E but went down in price

I can understand third party B/E's being off but when the in-game ones don't match up then it gets a bit confusing

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Any interest in Uate? This weekend has probably jump started his cash making but he would need a few more tries to be worth two trades. Might be worth a spot as a final 21 back up at wfb

Yeah, I'm a bit interested. Plays 13 as a bonus.

I dont like the WFB lottery though - for generating $. I made a bad call on Crich10 and I dont want to make the same mistake. I might hold out for a 40+ min forward for some 'safe' 30's

Shit, can go Thompson to Capewell via Mitchell and then Havilli to Fifita....

Although leaves me with no cash with Maloney and Rein to deal with next week.

@Neillo nobody knows how it really works, least of all FanHub

From what I gather, it's a weighted average of the last 5 games with more recent games being more weighted than 5 games ago. Then it goes average x magic number for the ideal price, then it works out the BE for what the player should score to maintain their price according to their average. I think the way the weighting works affects price changes as it doesn't account for the furthest game dropping off and being weighted to the most recent, so Matterson's round 4 score dropped off and his round 9 became more weighted... That's my 2c anyway (2c because my opinion is worth 2c which no longer exists, just like my opinion)

Hi guys

Have dropped the panic trade of Arrow in the hope he gets back to his best sooner rather than later.

Gone Thompson to JAC (was going to 2 weeks ago but logic got the better of me!)

Sorenson to Martin in the hope his 63 wasn't just a one off.

Capewell is tempting but can't afford him without trading out Arrow unless I go Rapana over JAC

Bought Crichton last week and though he scored shit and lost a ton of cash I think if he had of collected the pass he dropped in space and didn't have a few of his half hearted jersey grabs of people he didn't need to touch as they went into tackles he would have scored a lot better and will be one to hold for the season with as Rabbitohs are going great and on his night he will go big..Still hurts though

How many trades is everyone planning on having come round 13?

@wolfking I'm using the extra trade ability to trade all the players in that I need and ignoring byes. Rather have 10 playing with 6 of them being out and out guns than 15 with 3 guns

wolfking wrote:How many trades is everyone planning on having come round 13?

None at this rate haha

Nah, 16 is the plan

Rapture_NRL wrote:@wolfking I'm using the extra trade ability to trade all the players in that I need and ignoring byes. Rather have 10 playing with 6 of them being out and out guns than 15 with 3 guns

I think that might be the way to go. Missing guys like Fifita is hurting.

Neillo wrote:So.....I'm a bit confused about the B/E of players and their prices
I know it's probably just because it's a Monday and my brain hasn't kicked into gear yet but if anyone can shed light on things that would be great

Is the B/E on the main Fantasy site correct (using the coach setting)? Just seems that players prices didn't match what their stated B/E's were
Will give some examples soon but you can probably easily see yourselves that the actual B/E was different
Makes it a pain trying to plan if it's not right...I'd probably sell someone sooner if I knew their actual B/E was higher than stated

Some examples...player name....Rnd 9 B/E.....Rnd 9 score......what happened with their price
Matterson     34     39      down $4k
RFM             34     43           up $2k
C. Smith      43     37       down $19k
C. Murray    43     53           up $3k
Hiku            34     27       down $15k

Just seems like the players that went up only went up a small amount and the ones that went down went down heaps - even with Matterson who got higher than his B/E but went down in price

I can understand third party B/E's being off but when the in-game ones don't match up then it gets a bit confusing

The reason for this is B/E's are just an estimate regardless of if they are third party or official site. B/E is based on an estimated magic number( different places use different numbers which is why some B/E's are a few points off depending on who put them together. Since magic number is based on total points scored and total value of players in any given round it's impossible to work out ahead of time. You have weeks like this week with lots of points scored and some high value players on the side lines that 'inflates' break evens and you get players needing to score more points to avoid losing money. Then you have other weeks with low scores and plenty of high value players where someone can score under B/E and still make cash
TL;DR it isn't an exact science

Neillo wrote:So.....I'm a bit confused about the B/E of players and their prices
I know it's probably just because it's a Monday and my brain hasn't kicked into gear yet but if anyone can shed light on things that would be great

Is the B/E on the main Fantasy site correct (using the coach setting)? Just seems that players prices didn't match what their stated B/E's were
Will give some examples soon but you can probably easily see yourselves that the actual B/E was different
Makes it a pain trying to plan if it's not right...I'd probably sell someone sooner if I knew their actual B/E was higher than stated

Some examples...player name....Rnd 9 B/E.....Rnd 9 score......what happened with their price
Matterson     34     39      down $4k
RFM             34     43           up $2k
C. Smith      43     37       down $19k
C. Murray    43     53           up $3k
Hiku            34     27       down $15k

Just seems like the players that went up only went up a small amount and the ones that went down went down heaps - even with Matterson who got higher than his B/E but went down in price

I can understand third party B/E's being off but when the in-game ones don't match up then it gets a bit confusing

Its impossible to give a "correct" BE before the round is played - whether its official, or from mtb's site, because the price changes depend on the total fantasy score for the round, which obviously you can't know in advance.

The Magic Number (AKA $ per point) for the first few rounds was over 15,000. For the past 2 rounds it has been under 14,000.

I would assume that the official BE calcs estimate a MN based on the past few rounds average. As MN has been high this season and is now dropping, it means that they are likely to use an estimate that is higher than what ends up happening.
This means they think a point will be worth more money than it actually is.

Basically for the official BEs they would have assumed something like 9,100 fantasy points would be scored this week. The actual amount of points scored was 9486. Those bonus points can't just give everyone a price rise (net money in the system stays constant, so every time a player gains a $, someone else has to lose a dollar) so it has the effect of making the true BE higher than what was predicted.

This happens every year (MN starts out high and then gradually drops) as the first few rounds are lower scoring due to player rustiness and referee crackdowns. Also drops as the total salary of everyone that plays in a round drops as established players get injured and are replaced by cheap rookies.
This week $132million of talent played, but earlier in the season it was $137million per round, so there's $5million worth of talent that has been injured/dropped/suspended over the past month or so.

MTB and I will be lowering our MN from this week for our BEs, don't know how the official ones will be created.

Milchcow wrote:

Trapau does this every year.

Between rounds 8-14 last year he averaged 67 points.
From 16 - end of year he averaged 47.

Over the past few seasons his long term average has consistently been around 50 points. If you buy him now, you are paying a premium for scores he is unlikely to maintain long term.

I've looked at last years data, but beyond that I don't see anything systematic. What are you seeing prior to last season that indicates a big mid-season uptick followed by a decline?

The new information that I think could be worth considering is the injuries to their pack and the potential extra workload (minutes and responsibility) he is taking on.

By the way, I have him in my team, and have had him for the whole season so its not a decision I'll have to make. Was just throwing it out there for others to consider given that one more score in these lofty ranges would pretty much make him out of reach for most I would have thought.

Who here is hoping for Yeo DPP come rd 12?

wolfking wrote:Are people worried about burning trades on guys like Capewell when they might only be worth while for a few weeks?  I have 22 trades and know some of you guys would have less but I'm freaking out already and just keep trying to tell myself to get keepers and try and skip on guys only getting spots for a few weeks.  I could be looking too much into it though.

IMO 80 min 2RFs who you can play at C are gold, particularly this year and are worth taking the punt on. Q is, does Capewell fit that bill? Im willing to take the risk to be honest. He's cheap and will go up in value and worst case scenario he should get at least some game time in round 13 by which time if he's not on the edge still, he'll make for an easy upgrade to Aitken/Cotric.

He's a risk for sure, but if he comes off it could be gold!

What does Capewell average at CTR besides that 100 he scored last year?

Verbal Kint wrote:I think I'm going to ditch Arrow. Likely Surgess, Taupau or Lolo to come in. I'll hopefully bank the other trade unless I fancy cashing out Isaako. Hmmm

Hmmm, hadn't considered Surgess.

@Milchcow Wow, did not know the constant value thing lol learn something new every day

Early thought has been arrow and BBQ to Fifita and Surgess