2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 40

wolfking wrote:Are people worried about burning trades on guys like Capewell when they might only be worth while for a few weeks?  I have 22 trades and know some of you guys would have less but I'm freaking out already and just keep trying to tell myself to get keepers and try and skip on guys only getting spots for a few weeks.  I could be looking too much into it though.

I already have guys like Rein, Sorensen, Thompson, JMK, Isaako, Cogger and Hiku, I can't be wasting trades on part-timers.

I might skip Martin as I don't like his JS and apart from the try didn't do much (tackled well though)

Blain wrote:I need to work out who to get rid of this week, out of Arrow, Johnson, Thompson and Nicholl's. Could probably throw Hiku in, but I think he has points in him.

ATM I'm going Thompson and Nicholl's, but injuries of the first 2 could change that. If SJ is a month, I think I need him out. Arrow I can afford to hold for a few weeks with Surgess back.

Just gotta wait for news I guess.

He could be hard to let go of, but Arrow is a great way to get a fully functioning gun or a massive bank.

mickspicks wrote:What does Capewell average at CTR besides that 100 he scored last year?

Ignoring the 100, his average as an NRL centre is 32.

But people are buying him as an NRL 2nd rower (where he averages 40s from a small sample size) to play as a fantasy centre. The question is how many weeks does he get to start before being relegated to the bench.

SoylentGreen wrote:Who's worth holding out of this lot (I'm trading 2 of them out to get Fifita and Surgess): Arrow, SJ, Dugan

News dependant I reckon I would hold SJ.

Pain wrote:Time to upgrade RFM to one of the big boys?

He's a fringe keeper I reckon mate.

My horror week is doing my head in, so I'm just working towards my final 17 I think. Team at the moment;

Smith
JFH Arrow
Murray Tolo RFM
MBye Maloney
Mitchell Marsters
Teddy Ponga Thompson

Cook Griffin Rein Kikau

Havilli Soro Isaako Coggar

22 trades 163K.

Pretty sure I'm going to go;

Thompson - Capewell via Mitchell
Havilli - Fifita

Once Capewell peaks he can become a keeper back.

From my team, keepers are; Smith, Arrow, Fifita (if traded in), Murray, Tolo, Mitchell, Teddy, Ponga, Cook and Kikau. I just traded Marsters so I still think he's a keeper even though wasn't the best trade this week. I'd also almost call RFM a keeper also if he keeps playing 80. JFH also could be a good bench player. So looking at those, possible 13 at a very stretch with 20 trades in hand, but 10-11 definite. I'd have a lot of keepers already so might as well keep trading and once I sort my halves out, I'm looking pretty good I think. MBye could be a keeper at the back if Dogs can get him involved, but not holding my breath. He gets to stay though at the moment.

Any thoughts if I'm doing something wrong would be appreciated. Got a miserable 711 on the weekend, so I'm looking at things from a different perspective.

MilfordTheMagician wrote:

I already have guys like Rein, Sorensen, Thompson, JMK, Isaako, Cogger and Hiku, I can't be wasting trades on part-timers.

I might skip Martin as I don't like his JS and apart from the try didn't do much (tackled well though)

I am the same, already have too many guys that don't have a long term future in my team. Can't bring in another guy who might need selling in a month's time.

My bet was placed on Rein and Maloney and its too late to change now

This week's BEs

Are people really trading in Josh Addo-Carr? He has scored 9 tries in 4 weeks.

What sort of strike rate are you expecting him to have for the rest of the season?

Rockspider wrote:Hi guys

Have dropped the panic trade of Arrow in the hope he gets back to his best sooner rather than later.

Gone Thompson to JAC (was going to 2 weeks ago but logic got the better of me!)

Sorenson to Martin in the hope his 63 wasn't just a one off.

Capewell is tempting but can't afford him without trading out Arrow unless I go Rapana over JAC

Bought Crichton last week and though he scored shit and lost a ton of cash I think if he had of collected the pass he dropped in space and didn't have a few of his half hearted jersey grabs of people he didn't need to touch as they went into tackles he would have scored a lot better and will be one to hold for the season with as Rabbitohs are going great and on his night he will go big..Still hurts though

JAC almost looks like tries are becoming a base stat. I couldn't have him personally but do hope those with big enough balls to but him get the rewards.

A @RNGD Analytics piece on whether or not you can trust 2017 guns to get back to former glory. His stuff is always worth reading.

http://www.renegadesfs.com/index.php/nrl-fantasy/item/1939-analytic-observations-round-9

Milchcow wrote:
A @RNGD Analytics piece on whether or not you can trust 2017 guns to get back to former glory. His stuff is always worth reading.

http://www.renegadesfs.com/index.php/nrl-fantasy/item/1939-analytic-observations-round-9

Is it bad that I have every player on his "trade-out" list.....

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Any interest in Uate? This weekend has probably jump started his cash making but he would need a few more tries to be worth two trades. Might be worth a spot as a final 21 back up at wfb

If you want him, I think this is the week to get him.

For me, he'd be likely in my team for good, so would be there as a cash out and WFB EMG, and unless he went nuts and made a tonne of money I wouldn't be trading him out - so profits would likely be meaningless.

I'm more hoping Gutherson, or maybe Dufty can drop a significant chunk of cash. They won't go as low as Uate, but are much more tempting as EMG fodder than Uate is.

Jordan Kahu might be a goer though.
DPP, currently $349k with a high BE. If he can get back in the team and resume goal kicking he might be a handy cashout option with EMG potential.

Milchcow wrote:
A @RNGD Analytics piece on whether or not you can trust 2017 guns to get back to former glory. His stuff is always worth reading.

I should note that there was a lot of other analysis I wanted to do but I didn't have much time over the weekend or this week. There's a lot of aspects to this that you'd need to consider to make it really useful. For me I need to be way more cautious on the guns I am upgrading to.

Neillo wrote:

Is it bad that I have every player on his "trade-out" list.....

Not at all. I have four and if I had CS9 I'd just keep him. It serves more as a list of players people are or might be talking about. Flagging guys like JMK and Maloney doesn't make them a trade now but they will be very soon.

Advice please:

A) Brown + Rein out, Fifita + Taupau in 278k left but have to run Thompson and JMK in WFB
B) Brown + Thompson out, Taupau + JAC in 393k left with stronger backs and more cash
C) Brown + Thompson out, Taupau + Capewell in via Isaako 650k left with money to make and strengthened backs

Or can anyone suggest something else? I'm worried about paying premium for A, but equally concerned I miss theirs scores and price rises. JAC looks like Munster's preferred option so tries will be there for the next few weeks

Rapture_NRL wrote:Advice please:

A) Brown + Rein out, Fifita + Taupau in 278k left but have to run Thompson and JMK in WFB
B) Brown + Thompson out, Taupau + JAC in 393k left with stronger backs and more cash
C) Brown + Thompson out, Taupau + Capewell in via Isaako 650k left with money to make and strengthened backs

Or can anyone suggest something else? I'm worried about paying premium for A, but equally concerned I miss theirs scores and price rises. JAC looks like Munster's preferred option so tries will be there for the next few weeks

Fifi is only 39K up from his starting price so thats no concern. Fifi is a must, jury still out on Taupau but looks the goods.  I like C but depends how many trades you have, although would go Fifi over Taupau.

Neillo wrote:

Is it bad that I have every player on his "trade-out" list.....

Well if nobody has them they aren't really a 'trade out' option.

I mean, he could write an article on whether Ryan Hoffman and Brian Kelly should still be in your team or not, but nobody would care that much about the answer.

Milchcow wrote:
Are people really trading in Josh Addo-Carr? He has scored 9 tries in 4 weeks.

What sort of strike rate are you expecting him to have for the rest of the season?

People said same about Mo Salah in EPL. Titans and Manly at home next. Need to take some risks ranked 1210th

Loomer wrote:

People said same about Mo Salah in EPL. Titans and Manly at home next. Need to take some risks ranked 1210th

Fantasy price changes don't work the same as NRL though. If they did, Salah would have been worth about $20million after a month and it would be a different situation.