2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 69

Verbal Kint wrote:

Are you in NSW? We need to go for a beer

zorasdomain wrote:Hey mate, yeah I'm in NSW. I've sent you a PM.

@Krump , this blokes organising beers without you again.

Verbal Kint wrote:

I thought he had another out and in. Oh well

I guess it doesn't really matter - I need to do better with my trades next season. Save a couple at least

Im a bit mixed on this as a strategy and would love to discuss it at some point prior to next season.

For example it seems you and I ran the same trade strategy - ie. all gone by end of 17. You got unlucky with injury. On the other hand, injury actually helped me, despite not having trades. For example this week I got Hiku's score, previously I got Mann's 50+ score too. All completely lucky but it goes to show the all in trading strategy can work. If you'd had my luck for example you may have won!

That being said, clearly having trades up your sleeve is beneficial, but it can't be at the cost of quickly putting your team together to maximise weekly points as early as possible.

I would argue that the winner, while obviously knowing what he or she was doing, clearly had their luck early in that most of the trades (if not all) they made early must have come off. Without a whole heap of luck early there is no way, IMO, they would have been able to stick close enough to the leaders to come through at the end.

In summation, some people clearly know what they are doing in this comp, but IMO the difference separating the top 10 is most likely 95% luck once you take into account the fact that everyone knows what they are doing. Im therefore not convinced that one trading strategy is better than another given that luck is required for each.

Thoughts?

Big Kev wrote:Pretty pleasing to see MTVB take out the cash comp after putting in solid work with nrlfantasy.com.au this year. Well earned payback - used it exclusively this year.

Looking foward to seeing v.2

Cheers mate. Stoked to finish off strongly and get my best overall position since starting fantasy. Spent the arvo on the piss at Suncorp stadium, was a little shocked to open the app at the end of the game and see my score.

Would of been great if Zora and VK had taken out 1 and 2 overall, really sucks that luck didn't go either of your way in the last couple of weeks.

Does the advanced search function work on this site? Trying to find a post form a while back but Im not getting any results returned. Cheers

Awesome job by VK and Zora. Zora deserved better but at least you don't come away empty handed.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Im a bit mixed on this as a strategy and would love to discuss it at some point prior to next season.

For example it seems you and I ran the same trade strategy - ie. all gone by end of 17. You got unlucky with injury. On the other hand, injury actually helped me, despite not having trades. For example this week I got Hiku's score, previously I got Mann's 50+ score too. All completely lucky but it goes to show the all in trading strategy can work. If you'd had my luck for example you may have won!

That being said, clearly having trades up your sleeve is beneficial, but it can't be at the cost of quickly putting your team together to maximise weekly points as early as possible.

I would argue that the winner, while obviously knowing what he or she was doing, clearly had their luck early in that most of the trades (if not all) they made early must have come off. Without a whole heap of luck early there is no way, IMO, they would have been able to stick close enough to the leaders to come through at the end.

In summation, some people clearly know what they are doing in this comp, but IMO the difference separating the top 10 is most likely 95% luck once you take into account the fact that everyone knows what they are doing. Im therefore not convinced that one trading strategy is better than another given that luck is required for each.

Thoughts?

I have some thoughts on this that I might share after work if you like?

RNGD Analytics wrote:Awesome job by VK and Zora. Zora deserved better but at least you don't come away empty handed.

Thanks mate. Better than nothing. If Turbo hadn't been KO'd that's probably what it would have been. Good to see you right up there too.

zorasdomain wrote:

I have some thoughts on this that I might share after work if you like?

Yeah mate - for sure.

Im starting to for people like me who dont know a great deal about the NRL to do well I have to trade hard early, fixing my mistakes along the way, and hope for luck both with my trades and at the end of the year.

For those that know their NRL, perhaps they can mitigate the number of mistakes they make in trading early, hence saving some trades for later....

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Im a bit mixed on this as a strategy and would love to discuss it at some point prior to next season.

For example it seems you and I ran the same trade strategy - ie. all gone by end of 17. You got unlucky with injury. On the other hand, injury actually helped me, despite not having trades. For example this week I got Hiku's score, previously I got Mann's 50+ score too. All completely lucky but it goes to show the all in trading strategy can work. If you'd had my luck for example you may have won!

That being said, clearly having trades up your sleeve is beneficial, but it can't be at the cost of quickly putting your team together to maximise weekly points as early as possible.

I would argue that the winner, while obviously knowing what he or she was doing, clearly had their luck early in that most of the trades (if not all) they made early must have come off. Without a whole heap of luck early there is no way, IMO, they would have been able to stick close enough to the leaders to come through at the end.

In summation, some people clearly know what they are doing in this comp, but IMO the difference separating the top 10 is most likely 95% luck once you take into account the fact that everyone knows what they are doing. Im therefore not convinced that one trading strategy is better than another given that luck is required for each.

Thoughts?

Zoras got to the top on the back of someone like ARey. But then when people DCE and TTrbo finished the season stronger he was able to get rundown.

If he'd saved the trades to be able to bring in DCE/TTrbo for the last month he might not have been at the top in the first place, so its hard to say for certain what would have happened (other than knowing that with perfect hindsight he could trade in everyone just before they go big and romp home)

No Worries wrote:



@Krump , this blokes organising beers without you again.

It's a bloody outrage!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Im a bit mixed on this as a strategy and would love to discuss it at some point prior to next season.

For example it seems you and I ran the same trade strategy - ie. all gone by end of 17. You got unlucky with injury. On the other hand, injury actually helped me, despite not having trades. For example this week I got Hiku's score, previously I got Mann's 50+ score too. All completely lucky but it goes to show the all in trading strategy can work. If you'd had my luck for example you may have won!

That being said, clearly having trades up your sleeve is beneficial, but it can't be at the cost of quickly putting your team together to maximise weekly points as early as possible.

I would argue that the winner, while obviously knowing what he or she was doing, clearly had their luck early in that most of the trades (if not all) they made early must have come off. Without a whole heap of luck early there is no way, IMO, they would have been able to stick close enough to the leaders to come through at the end.

In summation, some people clearly know what they are doing in this comp, but IMO the difference separating the top 10 is most likely 95% luck once you take into account the fact that everyone knows what they are doing. Im therefore not convinced that one trading strategy is better than another given that luck is required for each.

Thoughts?

I tend to agree with most of this. I've always made an effort to save trades but next year I'll be going all out, it seems to me to be more of a boom or bust strategy and finishing 1100 just doesn't cut the mustard.

Not having Taupau/Jurbo all season while having Kikau/Arrow/Surgess struggle in the back end hurt me big I reckon.

Missing Rein was a mistake too

How did you finish up Milchcow, I believe prior to the byes we had very similar teams and rankings so would be interesting to see where you landed?

Boozecluez wrote:How did you finish up Milchcow, I believe prior to the byes we had very similar teams and rankings so would be interesting to see where you landed?

1101.

Was looking not too bad after round 24, but dropped about 400 ranks in the last round with a piddly 799. Biggest mistakes of the year was not getting Latrell Mitchell or Martin Taupau in.

Milchcow wrote:

1101.

Was looking not too bad after round 24, but dropped about 400 ranks in the last round with a piddly 799. Biggest mistakes of the year was not getting Latrell Mitchell or Martin Taupau in.

I'd say for a top spot Taupau was crucial and he was probably needed from close to the start of the season (if not form day one). He ranked 3rd in total fantasy points for the season so he was basically a must have.

Im not so sure about Latrel. I think the key to a really great finishing position would have been getting Latrel in post Origin. But I finished 36th and I didnt have him. In fact I believe I have the same two Cs I started the year with: Isaako and Hiku (plus added Holland around Origin time).

I think there were a number of key big cash making and point scoring moves during the season that high ranking teams probably took advantage of.

Rein was a goody, so was Maloney, Martin and even Farah to some extent although you really needed a trade to move from him to someone else later (a few people got stuck with his 60min games late in the season - I recall some smart people warning of that at the time everyone brought him in!!0. Im sure there were others I am not recalling.

So many different decisions and moments in this season - impossible to nail them all. But IMO the key was getting that core together of:

Cook, Smith, McInness, Fifita, Taupau, JTrbo, Tolo, Teddy, Ponga early and building around those guys.

If you had the trades late you could then ice that team with guys like DCE, T-Trbo, Mitchell etc.

Fun season - looking forward to the next one already!

My worst year ever - played since 2012. Been out in the 5000s most of the year but a poor finish sees me finish in 8151. Anyone do worse than that?

Wasn't helped by a month long holiday at a key point in the season.

Also not helped by my largely terrible decision making.

I'll be back next year with more cocktails too.

2nd year. 153 overall, massive improvement from the 6000 and something last year. Full credit to this forum for that. Had trades until the last round would have probably had a bit better result with some better trade choices ( not getting surgess or starting with cartwright where each was a wasted trade).

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Does the advanced search function work on this site? Trying to find a post form a while back but Im not getting any results returned. Cheers

Unfortunately no. There's no option to alter it, but there are some options are for the Founder only @Random In saying that, not sure they would include the search option.

Sooooo updates from Friday night not applied? Bad for us Captain Cleary guys.

SI wrote:

Unfortunately no.  There's no option to alter it, but there are some options are for the Founder only @Random In saying that, not sure they would include the search option.

Thanks mate, all good!

Milchcow wrote:

1101.

Was looking not too bad after round 24, but dropped about 400 ranks in the last round with a piddly 799.  Biggest mistakes of the year was not getting Latrell Mitchell or Martin Taupau in.

Latrell would hurt and Taupau ended up being alright in the end as well compared to some of the other options going so can understand that too.
Though Latrell was definitely a rollercoaster and in comparison I had Hopa in my
Between 2000th and top 100 I would imagine it would be a logjam

I regret getting Arrow back in after origin instread of JTrbo and not jumping on Holmes when he was minimum priced. But that is the game

Burned trades hard early to make ground then relied on my depth to get me through, worked out ok in hindsight but could have backfired badly too.
I think with all teams being so similar in the run home that it was hard to gain ground so it was vital to assemble your 'Final' team early.