2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

CubanMafiaSandSlugs wrote:Good evening all. How was the off season?

It's good to finally have the footy almost back.. I hope you are all well rested.

The Cuban Mafia Sand Slugs are well rested. The boys have been in Cuba partying with the daughters of the Cuban drug cartel no less. Reward I guess for a quadruple premiership winning 2015!

Bring on 2016. Look forward to some more banter.

Haha, welcome back Cuban.

Bren wrote:That team is solid as Welshy. IMO not much needs to be done till team lists. Maybe watch trials, 9's etc and make a few tweaks etc but otherwise you are good to go.

Cheers lad, I have the same core in most drafts so as you say just waiting on team lists now to chop and change a few

Bren wrote:
Wallace has been injured a lot on and off the past few seasons, plus they have a ready made fullback in DWZ. Hard to tell how Moylan would go in the HLFs, many said Milford wouldnt cut it yet 12 months later and here we are.

I actually tweeted Gus Gould about this very subject a couple of weeks ago. I asked whether he saw Moylan as a five eighth for Penrith and NSW in the near future as he reminded me of Lockyer and he replied with "One day.."

Moylan is all class. He is one of those rare young players who has transitioned into first grade with consummate ease. The composure and bottle (as they say in England) this kid has is first class. He always just seems like he has so much time and space and more often than not makes the right decision in the crucial moment. The kid is clutch and will move to the 6 jersey with relative ease. DWZ is too good a fullback to left sitting on the wing too long. I'd guess 2017 is the year we will see Moylan in the 6 for Penrith (Expecting one of Wallace/Soward to be moved on at the end of 2016) to allow this to happen.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Good looking team but FWIW I think Bromwich >>>> Snowden for the same price. Even with that you might get hit with lack of DPP in the front row and wouldn't be massively happy running all of Copley, Auva'a and Gutherson in scoring 17, so maybe downgrade one of your props to DPP Sue and turn one of your WFB nuffies into someone who can score.

I have the cash for Snowden - Bromwich but they averaged the same and Snowden played much less minutes, There is a chance Snowden could eek out some more whilst JBrom is unlikely to add to his 65 minutes, checked Snowden's stats on Milchys sheet and i was highly surprised at how well he scored in his minutes played from R18-R26

CTRs is a worry but thinking Hurrell and Lafai are a risk also although both have much higher ceilings, if they can get me 25-30 i will be happy, would prefer going light here than running he 1 GUN half and 3 cashies

User Name wrote:

I will have a go with my vast knowledge of players:

HOK: Awesome
FRF: Awesome
2RF: I like a lot
HLF: I almost ran with this but went 3 cheapies
CTR: Same problem I have at the moment
WFB: Should go well

In short I have now copied your team! (Joke)

Who would be your 4th reserve?

HAHA would make our head to head interesting

Lawrence or Taylor mate, if Lawrence is named on the bench i would expect 30 from him so he would be the go

Had a few of the (surprisingly strong) local craft brews and now have a team that is unrecognisable. Will have to look at it in the morning.

Lichaa, JNiko
Graham, Douglas, JTrbo, Nuffie
Parker, Taupau, Rochow, Turner, MCK, Nuffie
DCE, ARey, Hastings, Taylor
Avua'a, Gutherson, Henry, Nuffie
Tedesco, Ferguson, Gordon, Nuffie, Nuffie

I suggest when you have your proposed team worked out that you put it into Milchy's spreadsheet and check out the bye schedule. Most people from what I see will have all 4 halves on the same bye.

badbetter wrote:I suggest when you have your proposed team worked out that you put it into Milchy's spreadsheet and check out the bye schedule. Most people from what I see will have all 4 halves on the same bye.  

Unless you have JRey as one half you might be okay

badbetter wrote:I suggest when you have your proposed team worked out that you put it into Milchy's spreadsheet and check out the bye schedule. Most people from what I see will have all 4 halves on the same bye.  

A lot of people will be planning on trading out some of those halves before the big byes, especially if they go the gun + 3 cashies route.

If Taylor can get a decent rise, and one of the gun halves can have a poor patch of form, hopefully you won't need to find too much cash to do the switch.

Milchcow wrote:

A lot of people will be planning on trading out some of those halves before the big byes, especially if they go the gun + 3 cashies route.

If Taylor can get a decent rise, and one of the gun halves can have a poor patch of form, hopefully you won't need to find too much cash to do the switch.

Can't deny 3 cashies if they make cash, given limited options around cheap cows but it is some food for thought on conserving trades if you can produce a more balanced bye friendly 17 (25)

Welshy87 wrote:


Unless you have JRey as one half you might be okay

JRey potentially may be a POD, make you a bit of cash & save you a trade or two.
Perhaps with his history too much risk. Must admit I am being tempted.

Talk of the T-Rex contract year has led to this team

Smith Seggy
Graham Woods Lawrence (nuffie)
Surgess Cartwright Tapine Sue T-Rex (MCK)
DCE Hastings (Taylor Niko)
Lawrence Hurrell (Auvua'a Gutherson)
Ferguson Gordon Copley (Anderson Mitchell)

Hurrell is a pick based on "training the house down" which is not always a good move.
Not sold on Blake Ferguson either.
also involves playing Tony Williams, and I'm not sure I have the cojones to keep him in my team for round 1.

Milchcow wrote:
Talk of the T-Rex contract year has led to this team

Smith Seggy
Graham Woods Lawrence (nuffie)
Surgess Cartwright Tapine Sue T-Rex (MCK)
DCE Hastings (Taylor Niko)
Lawrence Hurrell (Auvua'a Gutherson)
Ferguson Gordon Copley (Anderson Mitchell)

Hurrell is a pick based on "training the house down" which is not always a good move.
Not sold on Blake Ferguson either.
also involves  playing Tony Williams, and I'm not sure I have the cojones to keep him in my team for round 1.

Very solid side
T-Rex shouldn't lose money but could surprise being contract year.
Hurrell his piss poor defense is always my concern for his stability in the side.
Ferguson I'm not sold on either.
Smith & Parker the only Captain choice for mine
Lawrence held in high regard at Tigers, shouldn't lose money either.
Most other blokes you have picked in your 17 have upside for me

badbetter wrote:

JRey potentially may be a POD, make you a bit of cash & save you a trade or two.  
Perhaps with his history too much risk. Must admit I am being tempted.

Would of thought with added responsibility Jrey would curb his grubness, but it just won't happen!
But I just currently can't pass up on his higher scoring potential and less risk than running the 3 gun half scenario

Milchcow wrote:
Talk of the T-Rex contract year has led to this team

Smith Seggy
Graham Woods Lawrence (nuffie)
Surgess Cartwright Tapine Sue T-Rex (MCK)
DCE Hastings (Taylor Niko)
Lawrence Hurrell (Auvua'a Gutherson)
Ferguson Gordon Copley (Anderson Mitchell)

Hurrell is a pick based on "training the house down" which is not always a good move.
Not sold on Blake Ferguson either.
also involves  playing Tony Williams, and I'm not sure I have the cojones to keep him in my team for round 1.

I have been deliberating over TRex since he has been mentioned, I think he does well and certainly doesn't lose money
class hookers
class props
great depth in the 2RF, although the cash might be spread too much, Catwright is so up in the air but his potential with big minutes is MASSIVE, but as he is being combined in a back row with Tapine, Sue and Trex all who have question marks i would probably like to see one downgraded and Cartwright turned into someone with less risk attached
I think so many will run with the 1 GUN and 3 cashie half route then the risk gets reduced, Hastings i have no doubt will go for at least 35 so no worries there but Taylor and Niko i just don't know
Lawrence is safe as house in the CTRs like his pick and i like the big potential attached to the hurrellcane
Like the 2 mid rangers with potential in the WFB, and Copley will be in a lot of team

very solid mate

Let's talk about Cartwright...

Last season he averaged 40ppg (39.9) while averaging 53 minutes. However in games he didn't score a try he averaged 35ppg in 17 games, and averaged 52 minutes in those games. (I also discounted his 80 minute stint at Five-Eight). So without tries being scored he has a ppm of 0.67.

If he gets the following minutes, he will average the following score. (Without tries)

80 Minutes = 54ppg
70 Minutes = 47ppg
60 Minutes = 40ppg
50 Minutes = 34ppg

With an expected BE of 40, he will need to get at least 60 minutes to maintain his current price. Which I do think is possible, however I am doubtful he will get anything more than that.

Cartwright has competition in the 2RF with E. Taylor who averaged 73 minutes per game. (Discounting game he was injured.), Trent Merrin who averaged 53 minutes per game, Tyrone Peachey who averaged 52 minutes per game (Discounted when he played at Five-Eight), and Isaah Yeo who averaged 59 minutes per game (Discounted when playing at CTR). You also have a new coach, meaning

That is 237 minutes of the 240 minutes available in the second row. (Now I am not saying that Cartwright will receive 3 minutes a game.) But it shows just how tight game time will be for players in the Second Row.

So either you guys think he will be scoring tries more consistently than he did last year (Scored tries 4/22 games) or you guys think he is in line for  a bulk of minutes. (In fact more minutes than he did last year.) Now I could see him possibly pushing for 60+ minutes if Merrin was playing in the Front Row. (Which I think is possible, considering the Panthers depth there.) However if he isn't I think it is unlikely that Cartwright will manage to get more than 50 minutes a game, which without tries will be a lackluster 34 point average.

Then there is the fact he is priced at $357 000 (Break Even of 40). I see it extremely unlikely he makes enough cash to warrant the pick, and without a consistent amount of tries or minutes he isn't going to break out of the Mid-Tier status. There are so many other options below his price as well as a few around his price in,  Leeson ah Mau, and Zeb Taia.

I just think he is too much of a risk, unless Merrin somehow ends up playing Prop.

TL;DR: Why the hell is everyone high on Cartwright? Expecting tries, or expecting minutes?

(If I messed up math don't point it out. I am from QLD.)

@Random

In short mate in reply to that great analysis on Cartwright, I think people reckon he could be in line for 80 minutes, myself included
Just a feeling from myself but i think Taylor is more likely to see a minutes reduction, I think Cartwright will be on the field more because he is such a damaging ball runner and is deserving of more game time, Taylor is good but he doesn't offer as much going forward, with Merrin there being able to share donkey work that Taylor did on his own perhaps Taylor gets a rest

Did Griffin play Glenn and Gillett as 80 minute backrowers? I think he might of so i may be talking jibberish above

Also is the Panthers front row stocks as low as some people think?

RCG, McKendry, Latimore, Matagi, Latu

Are the thoughts that Merrin does a stint there? If so what do people think his minutes will be like?

How do you see the minutes breaking down then for the Panthers? I know Cleary had massive wraps on Taylor which is in part reason to him playing 80 minutes. So I tend to agree that it is possible his minutes decline, but not enough for Cartwright to be an 80 minute player.

The only way I see Cartwright getting 80 minutes is with Merrin in the Front Row, or Merrin 50 minutes, Taylor/Peachey 40 minutes, Yeo 30 minutes. Which is a viable rotation, I just see Merrin/Taylor more likely to get the time.

Random wrote:How do you see the minutes breaking down then for the Panthers? I know Cleary had massive wraps on Taylor which is in part reason to him playing 80 minutes. So I tend to agree that it is possible his minutes decline, but not enough for Cartwright to be an 80 minute player.

The only way I see Cartwright getting 80 minutes is with Merrin in the Front Row, or Merrin 50 minutes, Taylor/Peachey 40 minutes, Yeo 30 minutes. Which is a viable rotation, I just see Merrin/Taylor more likely to get the time.

Is it feasible that Yeo doesn't crack the rotation this year, Is he needed with the introduction of Merrin?

Merrin 40 lock 20 prop
Cartwright 80
Taylor 80
Peachy 40

Merrin 40 lock 20 prop
Cartwright 80/60
Taylor 60/80
Peachy 40
Yeo 20

TBH I'm not the most saavy on forward rotation minutes