2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

SoylentGreen wrote:

In order of preference, how would you rank fergo and Slater along with those 2?

GoingNuts wrote:Great article in the courier mail about the broncos Beep test. Says Milford enjoyed his Christmas to much and is on the heavier side.  Bowed out very early (but also affected by heat). Boyd and Murphy the best performers in his group. States he was heavy last year but lost all the weight over the opening rounds. So might be worth waiting a few weeks if you were planning on bringing him in.  

Big Sammy did well on 18.5.   Macca on 22

Random wrote:

Who takes the 2nd wing spot for Storm? Y. Tonumaipea?

Tigers backline?

Krump wrote:
Shanbon sent me some links a few months ago and it was great reading but I'm not at all convinced it can really be used over 26 rds. With the growth of cash games I'll definitely be using it for them though, I also do horse racing comps on topbetta which are similar to the daily games and its been a help there.

Krump wrote:
Is this some sort of beep test I've never heard of? Those results are ridiculously high.

Bren wrote:
Macca would be the fittest player in the Broncos squad you would think.

Krump wrote:
If I had to pick two players it would be them but those scores just seem crazy high for the standard beeptest. A quick google showed the highest result in the Knights team was 14/11
http://www.newcastleknights.com.au/news/2016/01/04/knights_improve_beep.html

The key to grasping the effect of player usage on your win probability is understanding that the goal in daily fantasy sports is not always to score as many points as possible. Let me repeat that: the goal is not to score as many points as possible.

That might seem ridiculous because you need a lot of points to win, but your real aim should be doing whatever is necessary to improve your chances of winning a league as much as possible. Sometimes that might mean trying to score as many points as you can (like in head-to-head leagues, for example), but that’s not necessarily the case in big tournaments with a lot of users.
Although there are major inefficiencies in daily fantasy sports that poker players can exploit for profit, the market is efficient enough that we generally see high usage on valuable players, i.e. the players who are underpriced are in the most lineups.

If your sole focus is to maximize projected points, you should choose the players (or the player combinations) who offer the most value. Over the long run, that will maximize your point totals.

But guess what? Everyone else is doing that same thing. And the more lineups a player is in, the less usable value he offers.

SoylentGreen wrote:This is pretty good.
http://www.betootaadvocate.com/uncategorized/josh-dugan-named-captain-of-nrl-white-trash-all-stars-team-list-announced/

Krump wrote:
If I had to pick two players it would be them but those scores just seem crazy high for the standard beeptest. A quick google showed the highest result in the Knights team was 14/11
http://www.newcastleknights.com.au/news/2016/01/04/knights_improve_beep.html

Cake Tiger wrote:OK, so I've been playing around with an experimental team for "a relative". It's not going to win anything but, now it's picked, I'll be interested to see how it goes. Who can spot the special feature of this team?

HOK: Luke, K Nikorima
FRF: J Bromwich, Matulino, Asofa-Solomona, Molo
2RF: Mannering, Taupau, E Taylor, Bhana, Aloiai, Liolevave
HLF: Johnson, J Nikorima, Dockar-Clay, Martin
CTR: Lolohea, Kenny-Dowall, Henry, Peni
WFB: Tuivasa-Sheck, Vatuvei, Hiku, Wells, Manuleleua

Bren wrote:Is it Liolevave? I actually have him as an NPR at the moment.

Edit: oh right you mean because they are all NZ players haha